The Spanish household savings rate has rebounded for the first time since the pandemic, thanks to a rise in gross disposable income and a fall in inflation, which has moderated the growth in nominal household spending.
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With all the attention at the start of the year focused on how the Fed and the ECB will go about implementing the shift in monetary policy, and with the feeling that the rate cuts could begin at different times on each side of the Atlantic, in recent weeks there have been certain developments that could shed some light on the agitated world of monetary policy.
Although manufacturing is not among the sectors hardest hit by the crisis, the COVID-19 shock occurred within a context of a prolonged weakness in the sector, not only in Spain but in Europe as a whole. After the initial harsh adjustment, brief and uneven across the various branches of activity, the sector quickly picked up again, approaching its pre-pandemic levels of activity and employment. The outlook for 2021 and 2022 is favourable, driven especially by exports and the investments made via the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (RTRP). Recent disruptions in global supply chains, caused by global transportation bottlenecks and component shortages, will have a limited, temporary impact.
Spain’s agrifood sector is typically focused on exports: The range of agrifood products exported by Spain is getting wider and covering more destinations. However, another dimension should also be taken into account: export complexity, a concept that measures the knowledge intensity required to produce exported goods. Because not only the volume of exports is important but also what is exported.
At this point in the pandemic, no-one is in any doubt that the economic scenario largely depends on how the health situation will develop. After a period of relative normality during the summer, a large number of European countries have had to step up restrictions on people’s movements and business activity. The economic impact of this second wave is considerable, although clearly less than the effect of the strict lockdowns imposed in Q2. This situation has worsened the economic outlook for the beginning of 2021, although the outlook for the spring is more promising with hopes being placed on the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine and other measures to help strengthen the health strategy (such as the low-cost, rapid testing of large numbers of the population).
Activity in Spain’s real estate market is recovering from its extraordinary slump during the first lockdown. In Q3 2020, house sales and new building permits recovered much of the ground lost, a positive trend we expect to consolidate in 2021. Moreover, the impact of the crisis on house prices has been relatively moderate so far, although we expect these will continue to adjust in the latter part of 2020 and the first half of 2021. In particular, CaixaBank Research’s new house price forecasting models at the level of province, based on large amounts of information (big data) and applying machine learning techniques, predict that house prices will fall in 7 out of 10 Spanish provinces in 2021 and grow very moderately in the rest.
However, it is important to remember that the economic impact of COVID-19 is huge and the effects of the pandemic on the sector will take time to disappear completely. The Recovery Plan for Europe, or Next Generation EU (NGEU), allocated a substantial sum of 750 billion euros, will be decisive in helping to boost the recovery. One of the EU’s main targets, which this recovery plan aims to support significantly, is the ecological transition to become climate-neutral by 2050. In the EU, buildings are responsible for emitting about 40% of the gases that cause global warming. The involvement and commitment of the construction industry is therefore essential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the agreed targets, while more energy-efficient «smart» buildings also support another of the Commission’s key targets: digital transition.
These European funds represent a unique opportunity to modernise Spain’s economy, which will receive around 72 billion euros in non-refundable transfers between 2021 and 2026, equivalent to 5.8% of its GDP in 2019. About 6% of the European NGEU funds will be aimed at renovating housing, tripling public investment in this area. In particular, the government plans to recondition 500,000 homes between 2021 and 2023. This target, if achieved, would be very positive for the sector but it is highly ambitious since it requires multiplying the current reconditioning rate by six in just three years.
In addition to renovations, another priority for housing policy over the coming years is the improvement of social housing. The severe economic and social impact of the COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the need to provide a large number of rented social housing to resolve the current shortage and be able to ensure the most vulnerable sections of the population have somewhere to live. Policies that should drive a green, social and digital recovery.
Financial inclusion guarantees people access to an appropriate level of financial services. The considerable decline in the number of bank branches in Spain in recent years has increased the risk of financial exclusion for some customers in rural areas. These customers tend to prefer a physical bank branch and specialised offers, especially in the business segment. Within this context, the role played by rural bank branches is twofold: they allow the banking sector to specialised offers in economic sectors critical to large parts of the region, such as agriculture, whilst also maintaining a commitment to financial inclusion.
The pork industry has consolidated its position as the most important sector for Spanish livestock farming, accounting for over 40% of final livestock production. It comprises around 86,500 farms and 2,600 processors, with most of its production concentrated in just three regions: Catalonia, Aragon and Castile & Leon. Recently, the pork industry has managed to handle the fall in demand due to COVID-19 better than other meat sectors, a result of it being less dependent on the hospitality channel and also the increase in demand from China, whose domestic production has been severely affected by African swine fever (ASF). This situation has allowed Spain’s pork industry to consolidate its position as one of the major players in the EU and the world. The challenges that now need to be tackled by the sector include reducing its pollutant emissions and continuing to strictly apply the necessary biosecurity measures to stop ASF from entering Spain.
The Spanish economy grew by 5.0% in 2021, a large figure by historical standards but slightly below expectations, considering that GDP growth rates closer to 6.0% had been forecast at the beginning of the year. Several factors, both internal and external, have moderated the strength of this economic recovery. Among the internal factors is the somewhat slower than expected implementation of the NGEU programme, leading to a modest recovery in investment. External factors include higher energy costs and problems in global supply chains, both of which have been considerably aggravated by the war in Ukraine.
The pandemic has altered the commercial real estate investment landscape, creating different types of assets according to the degree of disruption caused by the travel restrictions imposed to tackle the health crisis. Assets that have benefited include residential property, logistics assets and data centres, as well as a large proportion of retail assets. Among the most disadvantaged are offices and hotel assets, weighed down by the rise in teleworking and slump in international tourism.
Spanish tourism has made a strong start to 2023. International tourist arrivals have returned to the levels of 2019 while records have been broken by international tourism expenditure. Domestic tourism has been growing since 2022 but with less momentum due to a combination of reduced purchasing power and greater outbound travel. Although tourism is currently one of the drivers of the Spanish economy, several headwinds are likely to appear in the coming quarters. The complicated macroeconomic outlook in the countries of origin of inbound tourists, the reactivation of more distant destinations for European and Spanish tourists, and competition from more economical destinations point to a slowdown in Spain’s tourism industry as we approach 2024.
The war in Ukraine has fuelled fears of shortages of certain essential inputs for the agrifood sector, as Russia and Ukraine are major players in the global supply of cereals, oils and fertilisers, among other commodities. It is therefore not surprising that, following the outbreak of the conflict, the prices of agricultural commodities rose sharply on international markets. This price hike has been passed on to the production costs of Spain’s agricultural sector, a net importer of fertilisers and animal feed, and is also having an impact on the food prices paid by end consumers. Nevertheless, the most recent developments (agreements to release part of the grain retained in the Black Sea and good harvests in other producing countries) have helped to stabilise agricultural prices and reduce the risk of a global food crisis.
Executive summary. Expansion, resilience and new challenges for the Spanish agrifood sector
Agrifood
The inflationary episode currently being experienced by the Spanish economy is due to a major shock in costs. While the focus has been on the rise in prices for energy and agricultural commodities, since mid-2021 a large number of key raw materials and intermediate goods used in a wide range of production processes have also become considerably more expensive. This article shows how the higher price of these products has affected manufacturers’ operating costs, forcing them to pass on part of this increase to their customers so as not to jeopardise their economic viability.
The agrifood sector has continued to perform well since the most critical months of the pandemic. Primary sector production remains at a high level, the food industry is recovering from the slump experienced in 2020 and demand indicators suggest food consumption patterns are gradually getting back to normal, both in and outside the home. Agrifood exports are also booming, a lever of growth that will continue to be vital for the sector’s future.
The sectors most closely related to tourism are digitalising faster than the average for the Spanish economy but there is still a long way to go, especially when compared to other tourism industries in Europe. In the next few years, it will be crucial for Spain’s tourism industry to be able to remedy this situation by means of a clear commitment to digitalisation, which will help to improve its long-term growth capacity. The European NGEU funds are an opportunity to revitalise investment in the digitalisation of tourism businesses after two very tough years for the industry.
The agrifood sector contributes a lot of value to Spain’s economy, accounting for 5.8% of its GDP, 11% when all the activities in the food chain are included. It is also notable for its great export potential and a resilience that has helped it to weather the ups and downs of the economy over the years. Consequently, although the main markets for Spanish agrifood exports have slowed as a result of increased trade tensions and uncertainty over Brexit, available activity indicators show that, for the time being, the industry is withstanding the situation reasonably well.
Antonio is a research assistant in the Department of International Economies and Markets. He graduated with a double degree in Economics and Law from the Pompeu Fabra University and a master’s degree in Economics from the Barcelona School of Economics. Before joining CaixaBank, he worked at PwC as a consultant in the Strategy& Economics department.
Alberto is a Senior Data Scientist in the Spanish Economics Department. A graduate in Particle Physics from the University of Turin, he was involved in searching for the Higgs boson when working as a doctorate student (University of Turin) with CMS at CERN in Geneva and as a postdoctoral researcher (University of Cantabria). Before joining CaixaBank he worked for 3 years for the consultancy firm AIA and a further 2 years for KDP, a joint venture between CaixaBank and AIA. His work at CaixaBank focuses on exploiting large amounts of data, both internal and from public sources, using machine learning technologies.