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In the US, two major economic investment and modernisation plans have been launched in recent years which represent a very different model from the European one, with a more protectionist approach. The transformative efforts in energy and technology did not arise from the need to boost the economy after COVID, as was the case in the euro area with the European NGEU funds, but rather from the need to strengthen the US’ autonomy and strategic position.

The health situation and the lockdowns made 2020 an annus horribilis for Portugal's tourism sector: total profits generated by tourist accommodation establishments fell by almost 3 billion euros and the total number of guests fell by 61%.

The tourism sector is reaching high levels of utilisation of its productive capacity, so we can expect the pace of growth to gradually moderate. However, Spain’s economy has other levers at its disposal.

The current state of Spain’s real estate market is characterised, broadly speaking, by the strength of demand and the scarcity of supply. As a result of this mismatch between supply and demand, home prices have accelerated, especially in the case of new-builds. Here at CaixaBank Research we already predicted that the upward trend in the real estate market would take hold in 2024, but the published data have proved to be more bullish than expected, and this, together with the improvement in the economic outlook, has led us to revise upwards our real estate sector forecasts for 2024-2025.

Following the last update of the macroeconomic scenario in June this year, we have incorporated the new information that has come to light and have re-examined the main factors dominating the scenario.

The tailwinds generated by the latest inflation data and strong labour markets coexist with a natural loss of cyclical momentum and, in particular, with an environment marked by high geopolitical risks. This combination of competing forces will determine the pace of growth over the coming quarters.

The US labour market is cooling down. The Fed acknowledges it and the statistics confirm it: the unemployment rate has increased 0.7 pps so far this year and in June job creation hit its lowest levels since 2021. Should we be concerned?

The Draghi report lays the foundations for re-industrialisation in Europe, combining sweeping actions with a menu of specific proposals for 10 strategic sectors.

September saw Q3 end with widespread gains in the financial markets. The cuts by central banks have prolonged the falls in money market rates and global stock markets have enjoyed a rally.

Is the Trump administration’s strategic shift compatible with the United States’ role as a guarantor of the international economic equilibrium?

We analyse the European manufacturing industry’s import dependency on China and the United States and strategies to reduce it in a more fragmented geopolitical context.

GDP maintained a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 0.2% in a Q3 marked by a pattern of steady growth.

The market’s first reaction to Trump’s and the Republican party’s victory in the US election was in line with expectations that their policies would lead to higher inflation in the medium term, as well as providing a certain boost to short-term economic growth.