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During the years of expansionary monetary policy, the Federal Reserve embarked on an asset purchase programme aimed at injecting liquidity into the economy and stimulating it, with its assets peaking at 35% of US GDP in mid-2022. The inflationary crisis required a restrictive monetary policy which included reducing the size of the central bank’s balance sheet in order to withdraw liquidity from the financial system. In 2025, the Fed announced a slowdown in the pace of its balance sheet reduction process beginning in April. 

We take a deep dive into the components of the consumer price index to determine whether the high inflation rates recorded in energy and food prices are spreading to the other components.

The key for the coming months will be to reach the turning point in the pattern of inflation, at which point an end will be in sight for the most aggressive cycle of interest rate hikes in the last 40 years, and this in turn ought to reduce volatility in the financial markets.

In the midst of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and an intense geopolitical battle that is likely to lead to a multi-polar world, the major economies must choose their game-play strategy.

The Draghi report lays the foundations for re-industrialisation in Europe, combining sweeping actions with a menu of specific proposals for 10 strategic sectors.

2022 will be remembered not only for the intensification and persistence of inflationary pressures but also for the sudden shift in the direction of monetary policy, bringing to an end more than a decade of low rates and ultra-dovish policies.

The pace of growth of the Spanish economy has slowed, as evidenced by the lower GDP growth rate recorded in Q3. The main reason for this is the weakness of the external environment: the euro area has registered a slight decline in economic activity and its three main economies are stagnant. In contrast, the statistics for household consumption in Spain, one of the pillars of the economy, remain strong.

In a month in which, unfortunately, geopolitical risk is once again taking centre stage, in the Dossier on the 2024 Outlook we review the key themes and forecasts for next year. The first theme is precisely how difficult it will be to recover a balance in the macroeconomy, in a world in which geopolitical instability has reached levels not seen in many decades.

Given its official «data-dependent» strategy, the ECB’s upcoming decisions will be subject to the current signals provided by the data, although they will likely also be conditioned by expectations regarding the US economic agenda and its consequences for the future.

We outline the five assumptions that must be met in order for the factors that are holding back economic growth to dissipate and for the outlook with which the year has begun to be confirmed.

The Spanish economy continues to have the highest structural unemployment rate in the European Union, despite having managed to reduce it substantially in recent years. To curb it, improvements are needed on three fronts: greater supply and demand for employment and better matching between the two.