Search results

CaixaBank’s internal data allow us to assess in detail which groups are particularly suffering as a result of the crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic and to what extent public sector transfers are proving effective in protecting them.

The economic recovery is expected to be consolidated in 2022, with GDP growth accelerating to around 6.0%. The pandemic could still generate new waves, either through the emergence of new, more contagious variants or due to the arrival of the cold, but we expect that their impact on the health system would be limited thanks to the progress made with the vaccines and that reimposing severe restrictions on activity would not be necessary.

In February, we wrote that we could expect to see a cooling of the US economy at some point in 2023, a view shared by most analysts. However, what we have seen in the year to date is an economy that continues to grow with unusual strength considering the current environment of high interest rates.

Japanese sovereign yields have rebounded since 2022, particularly in the past year, and have exceeded the 2% threshold for the first time in nearly three decades. These movements have sparked a wide debate about the country’s fiscal sustainability and the direction of its monetary policy. In this article, we analyse the factors behind the recent upturn and its consequences for the Japanese economy.

On a positive note, the PMI for the services sector stood at 56.7 points in May, well above the level at which positive growth rates are usually observed (50 points), albeit below the level of the previous two months.

Despite the encouraging signs of recent months, the international economy will continue to operate in an unstable equilibrium within the forecast horizon.

Geopolitics marked the beginning of the year in the financial markets. The resurgence of tensions, from Venezuela to Iran, and the diplomatic clash between the US and Europe over Greenland generated risk aversion and triggered a temporary spike in market volatility. 

In Spain, households have begun to reduce the savings accumulated during the pandemic in order to sustain their consumption levels in an environment of high inflation. The fall in the savings rate has also been reflected in Spanish households’ financial assets.

To date, the investments already approved as part of the Portuguese Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) amount to 12,249 million euros, compared to total planned investments of 16,644 million euros. This represents an approval rate of 74%, which in principle looks promising in terms of getting the most out of the NGEU funds that Portugal will receive up until 2026.

Once domestic demand reflects the effects of the interest rate hikes, the hardest part of the central banks’ work will have been largely completed. The problem is that the markets are already – perhaps precipitously – pricing in an imminent shift in monetary policy.

The financial markets broadly stabilised during the month of April, as investors' radar moved away from the financial turmoil of March to focus on the growth and inflation outlook, with the publication of GDP data for Q1 2023 and the corporate earnings season.

The strong start to the year introduces some upward bias into the growth forecasts for 2023. Nevertheless, the risk that the second half of the year could be weaker, as the aggressive rate hikes are finally transmitted to the economy, may limit the growth expected for 2024.

Macro fundamentals have closely aligned with observed sovereign risk premiums in recent years. In fact, the sustained moderation of the main euro area risk premiums clearly aligns with what is predicted by the fundamentals. However, a country‑by‑country analysis reveals a more nuanced picture.

As we approach the end of a year characterised by uncertainty and volatility in the economic and financial variables, the sensation is that the global economy is capable of absorbing the effects of the supply shocks, the increase in geopolitical risk and the rising interest rates much better than had been anticipated at the end of the summer.

Following a record-breaking 2022, the ECB’s interest rate hikes, coupled with the slower growth in real household disposable income, are expected to weaken the demand for housing.

The relative improvement in international prices of agricultural goods has barely been reflected in global consumer prices. The main reason for this is the depreciation of many countries’ currencies against the dollar, which intensified with the Fed’s first interest rate hike.

We disaggregate job creation among the main branches of economic activity in order to assess whether the improvement in the labour market is widespread or is concentrated in certain sectors and is due to specific factors.

The Chinese authorities seem willing to tolerate a slower pace of growth, prioritising economic security. What implications will this new macroeconomic environment have for China and what will be the ramifications globally?

Five months after the last update to our macroeconomic forecast scenario, we have incorporated newly available information and re-examined the main factors dominating the outlook for Spain’s economy.