The transmission of the interest rate cycle to households in Spain: micro-level evidence of a moderate adjustment and gradual recovery

This article confirms, through the use of anonymised high-frequency internal data, how the interest rate hikes and cuts between 2022 and 2025 have affected Spaniards’ consumption. The results show that the monetary policy of the last cycle has clearly influenced household consumption in Spain, albeit with moderate intensity, and that interest rate cuts have had a tangible impact in boosting spending among households with variable-rate mortgages.

Real estate

What do high-frequency data tell us about rents in Spain?

This article analyses the recent dynamics in Spain’s rental market based on internal CaixaBank data on direct debit payments for residential rents. According to our indicators, annual rent price increases are moderate when there is no change of tenant or landlord, generally lying below 3% and close to inflation, and consistent with regulatory caps. In contrast, the pressure on the price of new rental contracts has increased, closing 2025 with growth in excess of 10% year-on-year. Despite this, the median cost burden remains stable at around 30%, although there is still significant inequality between age groups and greater pressure in large cities.