En la mesa de expertos “Perspectivas económicas 2024: desafíos en clave económica”, organizada por El Periódico de España y El Periódico, con Judit Montoriol, lead economist de CaixaBank Research, María Jesús Fernández, economista sénior en el área de Coyuntura Económica de Funcas; Juan Pablo Riesgo, de EY Insights y People Advisory Services; Luciana Taft, consultora del área de Economía y Mercados de Analistas Financieros Internacionales (AFI), y Judith Arnal, investigadora senior del Center for European Policy Studies y del Real Instituto Elcano debaten los retos a los que se enfrenta la economía española en 2024.
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In the final session of the week, market sentiment was mixed on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, government bond yields remained fairly flat following Thursday’s ECB meeting, after which investors see a first rate cut in April as more plausible. Major European stock market indices rallied on this expectation, posting a week of strong gains.
Ricard Murillo y Patricia Esteban repasan la actualidad económica en el capítulo de abril de "Economía Exprés", y se paran en la economía española para desvelar los misterios del PIB, la situación del país en el índice de innovación que ha publicado la Comisión Europa y el estado de salud del sector de la restauración. Sin dejar de lado los vaivenes del petróleo y la acción reciente en los bancos centrales.
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In yesterday’s session, investors had to weigh mixed economic data indicators, as flash PMIs showed how the manufacturing sector in the euro area weakened slightly in March, deep below the 50-points threshold, while the services index managed to increase (52.9 for the euro area).
Dossier
Informe mensual | Mayo 2024 | Núm. 489
Investors traded cautiously in yesterday’s session as they await key economic releases this week, including euro area 1Q GDP (today), which is expected to show the economy grew 0.2% yoy, euro area April inflation (today) expected to stay at 2.4% yoy, and the Fed’s FOMC meeting tomorrow, where markets anticipate no changes to the Fed’s target rate.
¿Cuándo empezarán a bajar los tipos los tipos de interés? ¿Se desmarcará el BCE de la Fed? ¿Podemos dar por acabada la crisis inflacionista en Europa? Ponemos a prueba a nuestros observadores de los bancos centrales en este especial sobre política monetaria de Economía Exprés y comentamos los buenos datos de crecimiento con los que nos ha sorprendido la economía española el primer trimestre de 2024.
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The week began with European investors in a risk-off mood. Eurozone government bond yields rose on fresh hawkish comments from several ECB officials, including Lagarde, who emphasized the idea that the ECB could wait several meetings between cuts
Eurozone investors closed last week by reducing their risk exposure as the chances of a new French parliament willing to increase the country's budget deficit increased. This pushed eurozone government bond yields lower, although spreads widened, particularly on French bonds. Equity indices also fell across the board.
Without any major macroeconomic news to trade on, sovereign bond markets had a relatively quiet session yesterday with only minor price changes: yields edged down in the euro area, but rose in the US. Equities were mixed, posting gains in the US boosted by tech mega-caps, while European indices declined as sentiment remained weak.
The week began with eurozone investors digesting the results of the French parliamentary elections, in which Le Pen's RN did slightly worse than polls had predicted. Eurozone peripheral spreads tightened, although government bond yields rose as Lagarde said in Sintra that the ECB was in no hurry to cut rates further.
During Tuesday’s session, eurozone investors remained focused on French political risk, while US markets saw some thin trading volumes ahead of the 4th of July holiday. In the eurozone, government bond yields fell and peripheral spreads tightened as the May inflation reading came in line with expectations, easing slightly from May but with service costs stuck.
Monetary policy expectations guided investor sentiment during yesterday’s session in euro area financial markets. On the macro front, the Eurozone consumer confidence index rose to –13 from –14 in July. US existing home sales fell more than expected in June, while house prices hit another record high.
Los jóvenes son uno de los colectivos que encuentran mayores obstáculos para acceder a una vivienda en España, junto con la población inmigrante y los hogares en los quintiles más bajos de renta. Unos obstáculos que son aún mayores en las grandes ciudades y en las zonas turísticas, y que afectan a la vivienda tanto en propiedad como en alquiler. La evolución del mercado inmobiliario y la situación de los jóvenes en el mercado laboral son las principales causas de problema, y la solución, que no es sencilla, pasa por incrementar la oferta de vivienda asequible de forma significativa. Lo hablamos con Judit Montoriol, economista invitada en el programa de hoy y coordinadora de nuestro Informe Sectorial de Inmobiliario. Con ella compartimos también, al final del capítulo, las claves económicas del mes para España, Europa y el mundo.
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Dossier
Informe mensual | Septiembre 2024 | Núm. 492
Presentamos el nuevo escenario económico de CaixaBank Research, con una revisión al alza de la previsión de crecimiento del PIB de España y un deterioro modesto de las expectativas para la economía internacional.
Wednesday saw another mixed session in the financial markets ahead of today's US inflation report. Government bond yields rose slightly in the eurozone and more sharply in the US. The move in the eurozone came as some ECB officials expressed doubts about a rate cut in October, which had so far been favoured by most of the bank's officials who spoke.
Investors closed the week driven by the November PMI indices, which showed a growing divergence between the Eurozone and US economies. In the US, the composite index climbed to a 31-month high of 55.3 on hopes of pro-business policies from Trump. In the eurozone, both the services and manufacturing indices fell below 50 and disappointed.
Investor sentiment diverged on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. In the Eurozone, government bond yields were mixed, with French spreads widening after the European Commission endorsed the French draft budget for 2025, which aims to reduce public deficit from 6.1% of GDP to 5%. The budget has yet to be approved in parliament amid a political stalemate.
With US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, European investors remained focused on the French budget impasse. Eurozone bond yields fell and peripheral spreads narrowed yesterday as Barnier's government weighed concessions on limiting electricity tax hikes, as demanded by Le Pen, to avert a no-confidence vote.