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With US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, European investors remained focused on the French budget impasse. Eurozone bond yields fell and peripheral spreads narrowed yesterday as Barnier's government weighed concessions on limiting electricity tax hikes, as demanded by Le Pen, to avert a no-confidence vote.

Euro area markets had a cautious session ahead of the no-confidence vote in France, approved late last night. Sovereign bond yields were mostly flat, and the region's main equity indices posted small gains. The euro was flat against its main peers, leaving its cross with the US dollar at 1.05.

Investors traded cautiously amid political tensions in France, where lawmakers are set to vote today on no-confidence motions. Euro area sovereign bond yields edged lower, and France's risk premium narrowed to 85bp after reaching 88bp in the previous session. The region's main stock indices advanced slightly, and the euro held steady at 1.05 against the dollar.

Clàudia Canals resume nuestras previsiones para las principales economías avanzadas y emergentes, eurozona y España, y explica en detalle las causas profundas del rebote de la inflación, uno de los riesgos que persisten en la economía mundial desde el mes pasado, junto con la disrupción de las cadenas globales de aprovisionamiento.

Global markets started the week with a mixed session. In Europe, stocks rose across the board and sovereign yields advanced as investors eyed negotiations over the EU stimulus plan ahead of the European Council.

Markets were mixed during last session as several data releases for the euro area and the US was digested by investors. In the euro area, February's flash composite PMI came slightly below expectations (50.2 vs 50.5 expected), with manufacturing PMI still in contractionary territory (47.3) and services PMI still in expansion (50.7).

A wave of weaker-than-expected economic data both in the US and the euro area yielded a moderation in the expected path of policy interest rates which, in turn, pushed sovereign yields downs in both sides of the Atlantic. Stock indices edged up in the euro area and in emerging markets while closing mixed in the US.

In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously in Europe amid dramatic economic sentiment data in Germany (Ifo sentiment fell to the lowest recorded level) and the absence of a clear EU-wide proposal to fund the recovery in Thursday’s European Council meeting.

Investors traded more cautiously in yesterday's session as they weighted mixed news on Covid-19 vaccine developments and regulators ended their short-selling bans in several European economies. In this context, U.S. and European stocks retreated after Monday's rally.

Investors closed the week driven by the November PMI indices, which showed a growing divergence between the Eurozone and US economies. In the US, the composite index climbed to a 31-month high of 55.3 on hopes of pro-business policies from Trump. In the eurozone, both the services and manufacturing indices fell below 50 and disappointed.

U.S. stock markets rebounded while in Europe the tone was mixed. In sovereign bond markets, 10-year yields nudged down in the U.S. and edged up in the Euro Area.

Investor sentiment diverged on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. In the Eurozone, government bond yields were mixed, with French spreads widening after the European Commission endorsed the French draft budget for 2025, which aims to reduce public deficit from 6.1% of GDP to 5%. The budget has yet to be approved in parliament amid a political stalemate.

Stock markets rose in the U.S. but experienced widespread declines in Europe. In fixed-income markets, U.S. sovereign yields ticked up and European yields remained stable (with the exception of Portugal's).

Stock markets slid both in the U.S. and the Euro Area while treasury and bund yields were little changed and Euro Area periphery sovereign spreads declined.