Markets kicked off the week in a rather calmed tone as investors await key economic data this week which will provide them further clues regarding future interest rate cuts. On the data front, NY Fed’s January Consumer Expectations Survey found that respondents expect 1-year inflation to remain at 3%, the lowest reading in three years.
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Investors started the week trading with a risk-on mood, taking position ahead of corporate earnings and key economic data to be released this week. Today, the focus will be on the flash PMIs for January, which are expected to edge modestly up in the euro area and in the US, despite remaining below the 50-point expansionary threshold.
Investors kicked-off the week on a cautious tone. US Treasury yields continued to tick slightly higher, following the tendency of the last sessions. Global equities were mixed, rising in the US and declining across the euro area. A study published by the ECB found eurozone consumers have been shifting away from US goods and reducing overall discretionary spending.
In the last session of the week, financial markets were very volatile after the upside surprise in the US labor market report for January. Non-farm payrolls rose by 517k, well above consensus expectations (+188k) and the upwardly revised monthly average in 2022 (401k). The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.4%, a level not seen since 1969.
Yesterday investors continued to digest the messages from central bank officials, who, in general, have toughened the stance against inflation and show a more hawkish tone. In this context, yields on sovereign bonds rose further in the eurozone, more notably in the periphery, while remaining broadly unchanged in the US.
As it has happened 4 times in the past, near the ending of a US government shutdown, equity markets rallied in Europe. In the US, however, main indices were mixed, with the Nasdaq registering losses as investors remained cautious about too-high valuations of tech companies. Last night, Trump signed into law the spending bill, allowing the US government to reopen.
In the last session of the week, investors reassessed their expectation for the Fed’s interest rate path ahead as the US April employment report showed a cooling labor market. In particular, job creation slowed from 315k to 175k, way below consensus expectations, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% and wage growth decelerated to 0.2% m/m.
Investors traded cautiously ahead of today’s Fed meeting. Yesterday’s JOLTS report showed US job openings increased in October, indicating that the labor market isn't weakening abruptly and raising the risk that the Fed may strike a hawkish tone despite the widely expected rate cut later today. In response, Treasury yields edged higher and the dollar strengthened.
In the last session of the week, investors digested the hawkish comments offered by key central bank officials in the US Federal Reserve and ECB. In the former, Michelle Bowmen and Thomas Barkin signaled that interest rates will need to raise further but warned against reading too much into January’s retail sales and employment data.
In yesterday's session, the release of May's flash PMIs for the main advanced economies and corporate earnings took center stage in financial markets. On the former, the manufacturing and services indices rose in the US, leaving the composite index at 54.4 (a two-year high).
Central bank communication continued to center the stage on Wednesday. The release of the minutes of the last Fed meeting showed that almost all FOMC members favored a 25bp rate hike, while just a few would have opted for keeping the 50bp pace. They noted that, despite remaining elevated, inflationary pressures had begun to moderate.
US Treasury yields dropped along the curve after the ADP survey showed an unexpected decrease of private payrolls in November, suggesting further weakness of the job market and consolidating views on a rate cut by the Fed next week. In consequence, the dollar depreciated against all its main peers.
As expected, the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a somewhat hawkish tone, highlighting activity strength, labor market stabilization and elevated inflation. Treasury yields ended the session flat and the dollar rebounded from its sharp decline since last Friday, gaining against the euro and the yen.
Thursday saw another mixed session in financial markets. US Treasury yields declined after several Fed officials commented on further rate cuts, although they disagreed on the magnitude and pace of easing. Eurozone sovereign bond yields also fell, particularly Italian ones, following the Government’s submission of its Draft Budgetary Plan to the European Commission.
Speaking in the second day in Congress, Fed President Powell clarified that no decision had yet been made about the pace of monetary policy tightening, noting that the FOMC would consider higher rate hikes only if the totality of the data pointed in that direction. Before the next meeting, February inflation and employment data will be released.
Caution prevailed in yesterday’s session amid the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Equity markets paused their recovery, while sovereign yield curves saw no material moves. The US dollar strengthened to a four‑month high against the euro.
Risk appetite returned to the fore on Tuesday, as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy across major central banks in the aftermath of the turmoil generated by the collapse of two regional banks in the US.
Risk aversion extended across financial markets during a volatile session on Wednesday, fueled by concerns about the health of the banking sector in Europe, in the aftermath of the collapse of some regional banks in the US and renewed concerns about the financial position of Swiss lender Credit Suisse.
In the last session of the week, investors continued to trade with a risk-off mood amid continuing turmoil in the financial system. Doubts about the health of the banking sector led traders to think that central banks will have to stop hiking rates and start cutting them soon.
Investors' risk appetite increased on Wednesday as the ADP jobs report for June surprised to the downside and the ISM services report came in below expectations at 48.8. Separately, the release of the latest FOMC minutes showed that Fed officials acknowledged a slight slowdown in the economy as well as easing price pressures.