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Risk appetite surged on Monday, buoyed by expectations that the US government shutdown could end this week after several Democrats broke ranks to support a funding bill. Equity markets rallied on both sides of the Atlantic and tech stocks led the gains, rebounding rom Friday’s losses.

In yesterday’s session, euro area sovereign yields edged lower with little news to trade on, while US treasuries did not trade as bond markets were closed due to Veterans Day holiday. The dollar weakened as investors continued to digest the generalized cautious tone of Fed officials on a rate cut on December, while the Japanese yen hit a nine month low.

Markets had a mixed session. US stocks advanced ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, while most euro area indices retreated. US Treasury yields rose after the BLS announced it will not publish the October and November jobs data before the Fed's next meeting, leading markets to reduce expectations of a rate cut in December to 30%. Euro area sovereign yields were flat.

Markets opened the week on a risk-on tone, as Fed's Waller also favoured a December rate cut, much like Williams had done on Friday. Waller favoured the cut on the basis of a soft and weakening labour market, which pushed US Treasury yields lower and brought market expectations of a cut in December to 75%.

Financial markets had a subdued session on Thursday, with U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving. In the euro area, sovereign yields edged slightly higher. Minutes from the latest ECB meeting confirmed a cautious stance on rates, though diverging views on inflation risks keep the door open for future cuts.

Financial markets had a mixed session on Wednesday. Eurozone sovereign yields edged higher, with curves steepening and peripheral spreads widening, even as the Ifo index surprised to the downside, signaling weaker business sentiment in Germany. Final CPI figures for November came in a tenth lower in the general year-on-year rate.

Markets rallied on Thursday as US inflation eased more than expected in November (2.6% vs. 3.0% YoY), boosting risk appetite. The moderation may partly reflect delayed data collection due to the recent government shutdown. Separately, initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 last week. Treasury yields dropped and investors' rate-cut expectations for the Fed remained broadly unchanged.

Yesterday's session ended on a mixed tone with relatively small movements, as investors traded cautiously ahead of today's important data releases in the US, particularly Q3 GDP, which will be released today. Sovereign yields barely changed, with a small flattening of the US curve, while European stock indices receded and the US ones ticked higher, pushed by tech firms.

The week began on a cautious note, with US Treasury yields remaining flat, equities posting modest gains, and the US dollar edging lower amid reports that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been threatened with a criminal indictment related to the costs of a building renovation, which he described as a pretext by President Trump to exert influence over monetary policy.

Markets turned risk-off on Tuesday as Trump renewed tariff threats against Europe linked to his controversial Greenland acquisition proposal. Equity indices fell on both sides of the Atlantic, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading losses. Implied volatility rose, pushing the VIX higher.

With the focus on today’s Fed policy rate decision, widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, euro area government bond yields ended yesterday's session flat, while the US yield curve slightly steepened. Investors will be attentive to any hints given in the FOMC press conference for future rate paths.

Investors kicked off the week on a cautious footing, ahead of the ECB’s meeting later this week, which is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged (depo rate at 2%), while markets continued to digest Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Sentiment was also weighed by the sharp sell-off in precious metals that began late last week.

The ECB kept rates on hold at 2%, as expected, with Christine Lagarde noting that both rates and inflation remain in a “good place”. She also played down concerns around euro strength and risks linked to Chinese trade, signalling limited scope for policy easing below the 2% level.The BoE kept rates unchanged at 3.75%, albeit with a surprisingly dovish tone.

Trading activity was subdued at the start of the week, with US markets closed for Presidents’ Day and mainland Chinese exchanges shut for the Lunar New Year holidays. With no major macroeconomic releases elsewhere, markets lacked clear catalysts, resulting in limited price action.

Geopolitics were in investors’ focus yesterday, after Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that Iran and the US had reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” of a potential nuclear agreement. Commodity prices declined on the news, with Brent crude edging lower toward $67.5/barrel, European natural gas falling below €30/MWh, and gold also retreating.

The US Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s global tariffs, ruling that Trump had exceeded his legal authority. In response, he said he would invoke alternative legislation to levy tariffs and announced a blanket 15% tariff on imports from all other countries.

Risk sentiment recovered during yesterday’s session, as concerns over AI disruptions eased and global tech stocks advanced, with the Nasdaq gaining +1% in the session and global stocks recording gains overall. Against this backdrop, sovereign bond markets had a quiet session, with yields posting slight movements on both sides of the Atlantic.

Yesterday, investors remained focused on developments in the Middle East conflict. After an eventful weekend, which saw increased tensions and Mojtaba Khamenei appointed as Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Brent prices surged to nearly $120/barrel during yesterday's session. Prices have since retraced, however, after President Trump suggested late yesterday that the war could be close to ending, leaving Brent trading around $93/barrel this morning.

Yesterday's session showed a risk-off tone amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude prices hit $100/barrel after Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader, vowed to keep the Strait of Ormuz and after Iran reportedly attacked oil tankers and other energy facilities.

Signs of easing tensions in energy markets supported a modest improvement in risk sentiment. Reports of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, alongside comments from the IEA on potential reserve releases, pushed Brent crude down by around 3% to $100/barrel. Global equities rebounded, volatility declined, and the US dollar weakened (EUR/USD rose toward 1.15).