Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Sentiment recovered during yesterday's session following a stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales report for June (+0.6% mom vs. 0.1% expected, and up from -0.9% in May), highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy. Global stock markets advanced and the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high.
Markets had a choppy session yesterday. News reports that President Trump was considering firing the Fed Chairman sent jitters across markets, pushing Treasury yields higher and the dollar lower. Trump later denied the rumors and Treasuries recovered, while the dollar did not fully erase losses and by the end of the session the euro was close to $1.16.
US headline inflation rose to 2.7% (2.4% in May) and core inflation rose 0.1pp to 2.9%. A detailed breakdown showed prices have begun to rise in some goods categories, suggesting tariffs are beginning to impact. Investors pushed expectations of the first rate cut from September to October, and Treasury yields rose along the curve. The dollar slightly strengthened.
Investors traded cautiously amid trade tension escalations and heightened uncertainty, with all eyes on today's U.S. CPI report for June. The market's reaction to tariff threats was rather muted, with sovereign yields edging higher on both sides of the Atlantic, and equity markets posting slight gains in the U.S. and slight losses in the euro area.
Investors ended the week with a risk-off session as trade tensions continued to escalate. Over the weekend, President Trump threatened 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports beginning August 1st. Stocks fell across the board, sovereign yields rose and the dollar strengthened, leaving the euro trading just below $1.17.
Investors traded in a mixed mood in a session in which Donald Trump threatened a 35% tariff on Canada (for goods outside USMCA) and floated the idea of a 15%-20% global baseline tariff rate (currently, 10%). Stocks advanced modestly in the U.S. but declined in Europe. Sovereign yields rose, and the EUR weakened and traded below $1.17 (touching 10-day lows).
Stocks rallied across advanced economies in yesterday's session, with investors shrugging off Donald Trump's latest round of tariff announcements, but emerging market equities dropped. Sovereign yields declined after a few sessions on the rise.
Markets were mixed in yesterday's session as investors digested Trump's delay of the tariff deadline to August 1. The main U.S. stock indices were little changed, while European stocks rose across the board. The USD was stable against a basket of currencies and the EUR continued to fluctuate around $1.17.
Markets were mixed in a session dominated by uncertainty about U.S. tariffs. U.S. stocks dropped and the USD strengthened as the Trump administration threatened higher tariffs on several countries. There were no news related to U.S.-EU trade relations and European stocks advanced. Sovereign yields rose across the U.S. and the euro area.
Investors ended the week in a cautious mood. With U.S. markets closed on Friday for Independence Day, European stock markets declined across the board while euro area sovereign yields were little changed in both core and peripheral countries. The euro fluctuated close to, but below, $1.18.
U.S. sovereign yields advanced, the USD strengthened moderately and stocks rose after a solid labor market report and as House Republicans came together to pass Trump's budget bill (OBBBA). Investors trimmed expectations about Fed cuts, with market-implied odds of a July cut down to 5% from 25%, and futures on December 2025's FFR rose over 10bp.
Investors traded in an apparent risk-on mood in yesterday's session, with both stocks and sovereign yields rising across the board. Commodity prices also increased across energy, metals and agriculture products. In FX markets the USD wavered and the EUR traded close to $1.18. Market sentiment benefited from the announcement of a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal.
Investors traded cautiously in yesterday's session and, in the euro area, the major stock indices declined and sovereign yields edged lower. In a panel of central banks in Sintra, Fed's Powell acknowledged that the Fed would have already cut rates this year absent Trump's tariffs, while the ECB's Lagarde stated that inflation is at target in the euro area.