Financial Markets Daily Report

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In the beginning of the week, investors continued to digest the US employment figures report released on Friday, which suggested that the tightness in the labor market is far from moderating at the pace the Fed would like to see.

In the last session of the week, financial markets were very volatile after the upside surprise in the US labor market report for January. Non-farm payrolls rose by 517k, well above consensus expectations (+188k) and the upwardly revised monthly average in 2022 (401k). The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.4%, a level not seen since 1969.

Risk appetite continued to set the tone across financial markets on Thursday, fueled by expectations that the cycle of monetary policy tightening may be nearing its end.

As expected, the Federal Reserve increased policy interest rates by 25 bp to the range 4.50%-4.75% but surprised by giving a dovish tone, noting that disinflationary pressures have started while the economy is starting to slow. The Fed reiterated that “ongoing increases” on interest rates would still be needed.

Investors continued to trade cautiously on Tuesday, taking position ahead of a crucial monetary policy meeting at the Federal Reserve today, where the central bank is expected to scale down the pace of interest rate hikes (+25 bp) but to signal more adjustments ahead.

Investors kicked off a busy week of macro data releases and central bank decisions with a cautious approach, taking on board signs of lingering inflationary pressures across Europe as well as disappointing GDP figures in Germany(-0.2% q/q after +0.5% in Q3, ahead of the release of the eurozone aggregate this morning).

Risk appetite continued to set the tone during the last session of the week, with investors still assessing the resilience in economic indicators and the potential implications for monetary policy decisions ahead. This week, Fed (Wednesday), ECB and BoE (Thursday) will hold their first monetary policy meetings of the year.

Hopes for a so-called “soft landing” continued to lift spirits across financial markets on Thursday, following stronger-than-expected economic data as well as solid Q4 earnings results by some large US tech firms.

Investors traded yesterday with a positive tone amid somewhat better-than-expected corporate earnings results in the US and expectations of a moderation in the pace of monetary policy tightening. In Germany, the Ifo expectations’ index rose in January, but remained at very low levels.

In yesterday's session, investors weighed mixed corporate earnings results with better-than-expected flash January PMIs. In particular, the composite indices for the euro area and the US edged up from 49.3 and 45.0 to 50.2 and 46.6, respectively. Both sectors, services and manufacturing, registered an improvement from the previous month.

Investors started the week trading with a risk-on mood, taking position ahead of corporate earnings and key economic data to be released this week. Today, the focus will be on the flash PMIs for January, which are expected to edge modestly up in the euro area and in the US, despite remaining below the 50-point expansionary threshold.

In the last session of the week, yields on sovereign bonds rose markedly, particularly so in the euro area, and stock indices advanced across the board. The surprise in the PPI m/m inflation in Germany (-0.4% vs consensus -1.2%) and the hawkish comments from ECB GC member Holzmann contributed to the increase in yields.