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The week started with US markets closed for Labour Day. Elsewhere, energy prices edged higher, lifting eurozone market-based inflation expectations as well as ECB rate expectations. A hike at Thursday's meeting is priced by investors as almost certain, as well as two additional increases discounted over the next twelve months.

A risk-off mood prevailed across financial markets on Tuesday, as energy prices rose, with Brent crude oil nearing $100 and TTF natural gas climbing above €75. Market-based inflation expectations increased, particularly in the US, as did expectations for higher interest rates, with a Fed hike next week priced at a 60% probability.

A renewed surge in energy prices, which sent Brent crude oil above $100 and TTF natural gas close to €80, set a risk-off tone across markets. Inflation expectations rose, as did expectations of central bank tightening, with markets pricing around 85 bps of ECB tightening over the next 12 months (starting with 25 bps today), and almost 70 bps for the Fed.

Markets pared risk aversion in the final session of the week. While August U.S. inflation figures reinforced market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike as soon as this week (to 88% from 72% on Thursday), stock markets closed higher across Europe and the U.S. as oil and gas retreated from their weekly highs.

Markets started the week in a distinctly risk-off mood, shaped by a combination of surging energy prices, AI sector uneasiness, and strong market expectations for a Fed rate hike ahead of Wednesday's policy decision. Equities fell broadly, with European indices underperforming their U.S. counterparts.

The risk-off tone continued into Tuesday's session. Oil surged and extended September's run, driven by supply concerns and the disruption of Saudi Arabia's exports via the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Compounding the pressure, markets moved to a near-certainty on a Fed rate hike today.

Wednesday's session delivered a broadly constructive tone, with European equities outperforming their U.S. counterparts in a session dominated by the Fed's rate hike. European indices closed higher across the board while U.S. markets were more mixed, with the S&P 500 eking out modest gains for most of the session before closing lower after the Fed's meeting.

Thursday's session carried a broadly constructive tone. Equities rallied across most advanced and emerging economies, with the technology sector as a standout performer. In commodity markets, crude oil retreated for a second consecutive session (amid reports that China is asking Iran to rein in Houthi attacks). TTF natural gas also declined.

Markets closed the week on a mixed note on Friday. Market odds for further interest rate hikes rose, with investors discounting three hikes for the Fed and three to four for the ECB over the next 12 months. The ECB's Lagarde and Vujcic pushed back somewhat against these market expectations, explaining that the bank will look beyond higher energy prices alone when deciding its monetary policy.

Financial markets started the week on a positive note, as hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the war in Iran caused energy prices to fall, pushing inflation expectations lower on both sides of the Atlantic. This also eased central banks' rate hike expectations, although investors still price in three rate hikes by both the ECB and the Fed over the next 12 months.

Financial markets had a mixed session on Tuesday. Brent prices declined after Saudi Arabia moved to restart its East-West pipeline, while Trump reported some diplomatic progress with Iranian representatives.

Markets were mixed on Thursday, after a combination of higher energy prices following Saudi Arabia's interception of Houthi ballistic missiles targeting its energy infrastructure and a raft of hawkish comments from ECB and Fed officials (with ECB's Schnabel pointing to spreading price pressures) pushed up inflation expectations and policy rate odds.

Markets ended the week on a constructive tone, with news of diplomatic negotiations in the U.S.-Iran conflict driving oil and gas prices lower and feeding into risk-on sentiment. Stocks rallied on both sides of the Atlantic, led by gains in the technology, financial, and consumer sectors. Early this morning, however, the pattern reversed.

Monday's session exhibited a risk-off tone after U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent oil and TTF gas closed higher, and stocks declined across the board, with U.S. equities underperforming Europe (the former was dragged down by its IT overweight, while the latter was cushioned by its energy-heavy composition).

Investors traded cautiously in Tuesday's session. Equities posted losses across the U.S. and Europe, and sovereign yields were volatile even as energy prices declined. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surged to levels not seen since the early 2000s, despite finding a partial reprieve after NY Fed President John Williams signaled no urgency to deliver the next rate hike.

Wednesday's session carried a cautious tone. U.S. stocks were mixed and European equities fell broadly, while crude oil edged higher and TTF natural gas surged sharply, reversing recent declines. In FX markets, the dollar strengthened moderately, weighing on the euro.

Thursday's session carried a sharply divergent tone between the two sides of the Atlantic. France's risk premium reached 140 bps as investors intensified their fiscal concerns and continued to lead a widening in sovereign spreads, with yields on German Bunds dropping amid safe-haven flows. European stocks fell markedly, with France leading losses.

Financial markets started the week in a cautious tone. Tensions in euro area sovereign bond markets remained in focus, even though the French spread narrowed, as peripherals were flat. Sovereign curves steepened on both sides of the Atlantic as short-term references fell, while long-term ones rose. The euro weakened against its main peers.