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Market sentiment was mixed on Wednesday. On the one hand, higher-than-expected US inflation data for January (headline: 0.5% mom, 3.0% yoy; core: 3.3% yoy) pushed back market expectations for the next Fed rate cut from early summer to the end of the year, and the probability of a second cut went down to virtually zero.

Investors started the week in a risk-off mood as polls showed a tight race in today's US presidential election, which could potentially delay the vote count for weeks. Government bond yields were mixed in the eurozone and fell in the US, especially the longer-dated references, as traders await this Thursday's Fed meeting.

In yesterday's session, investors traded with mixed optimism as they continued to digest inflation data for the US, which might have peaked in March. On monetary policy, the Bank of Canada hiked rates by 50bp to 1% and said it would allow bonds to roll off as they mature. Today's focus will be on the ECB meeting.

Markets traded without a clear direction as investors remained cautious awaiting further announcements from the Trump administration and central bank meetings next week. ECB officials' remarks continued to support further interest rate cuts, while Fed officials are in the "blackout" period ahead of the meeting and cannot comment about monetary policy.

Investors traded cautiously ahead of today's FOMC decision (a 25bp interest rate cut is widely discounted) and the BoE on Thursday (expected to hold interest rates at 4.75%). On the macro data front, US retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in November, and in Germany, the IFO expectations index surprised to the downside as confidence in the country continued to weaken.

Investors traded with a risk-off sentiment during a volatile session on Tuesday, weighting in a potential ban on Russian coal exports by the EU and taking on board a new round of hawkish commentary from the Fed. The minutes of the March meeting will be released by the Fed later today.

Financial markets' tone improved for the second day in a row on the back of previous Fed comments saying that it would support the economy in case the scenario worsens, mixed economic data releases and brighter investor expectations on trade tensions between Mexico and the U.S.

Political tensions in France took center stage during yesterday's session after far-right and far-left parties submitted no-confidence motions against Prime Minister Barnier, risking the collapse of the current government. French government yields rose, its risk premium widened further, and the euro sold-off to 1.05 against the dollar.

With U.S. markets closed for the Memorial Day holiday, European stocks advanced moderately at the start of the week as investors digested the results of the weekend's European Parliament election.

Investors started the week in a cautious mood as they eye the upcoming G20 summit at the end of this week, in which Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet and discuss the possibility of resuming trade talks.

Investor sentiment diverged on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. In the Eurozone, government bond yields were mixed, with French spreads widening after the European Commission endorsed the French draft budget for 2025, which aims to reduce public deficit from 6.1% of GDP to 5%. The budget has yet to be approved in parliament amid a political stalemate.

Financial markets started the week with subdued trading and no relevant macroeconomic data releases. Government bond yields fell slightly in the US and rose in the eurozone, with curves flattening and peripheral spreads flat. Several ECB officials highlighted yesterday their concerns about Trump's protectionist plans impact on growth rather than inflation.

Investor risk appetite remained fairly high as the US election results were digested. The Fed cut rates by 25bps yesterday as expected (as did the BoE) noting an easing labour market and robust economic growth. Investors regarded the rise in US jobless claims last week as due to hurricane disruptions. Treasury yields fell, reversing some of the previous day's moves. 

Investor's remained cautious yesterday as they await for more clues on the upcoming macroeconomic and political outlook. In the U.S., results from technological companies surprised to the upside, while the industrial sector suffered from concerns about economic growth.

Softer-than-expected US inflation data drove a decline in Treasury yields, while equity markets showed a mixed performance across the Atlantic. US June PPI came in below expectations, following the previous day’s soft CPI, while Fed officials struck a hawkish tone but signalled patience, prompting a repricing of Fed rate expectations, with the probability of an additional hike declining to around 40%. US Treasury yields declined, with a flattening of the curve led by the short end.

Investors' risk appetite eased slightly on Friday as the day's US macro data supported a more hawkish Fed, right after Powell had hinted at a slower pace of Fed cuts on Thursday. The US economy remains strong: retail sales rose in October and the NY Empire Manufacturing survey surprised to the upside, while October import prices also surprised to the upside.

Investor sentiment recovered on Tuesday after Monday's rout in chipmakers and AI-related companies. Most equity indices around the world rose, with the US Nasdaq 100 up 2.0%. European equity indices were also higher, with the Ibex 35 leading the way, while Japanese equities were lower earlier in the day, still weighed down by Monday's tech pessimism.

Investors started the week shunning risk, with most equity indices around the world posting some losses, which were more pronounced in the US. Chipmakers and other AI companies, particularly Nvidia, suffered a rout as a newly released Chinese AI model proved more efficient and investors questioned how much value US AI companies would add in the future.

In yesterday's volatile session, investors remained concerned about the implications the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can have on economic activity and inflation. Nevertheless, rumors that the EU is discussing a plan to increase the joint issuance of bonds benefited risk perception in Europe.