Markets started the week in a mixed mood as investors eye trade negotiations and the central bank meetings in Sintra. Market confidence in Fed rate cuts drove U.S. sovereign yields down, while euro area sovereign yields were little changed. The euro strengthened against the dollar and edged towards $1.18 (a 5-year high).
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Investors turned cautious again on Tuesday as the Israel-Iran conflict continued. US Treasury yields fell ahead of the FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged as it seeks more clarity on the impact of tariffs. Yesterday's data releases showed a softening US economy in May: retail sales dropped by more than expected (although so-called "core" retail sales increased); import prices remained stable, surprising to the upside; and industrial production fell slightly.
Investor's remained cautious yesterday as they await for more clues on the upcoming macroeconomic and political outlook. In the U.S., results from technological companies surprised to the upside, while the industrial sector suffered from concerns about economic growth.
Monday's stock market rally went into reverse in yesterday's session, as investors weighed the prospects for the coronavirus pandemic and the possibility of further fiscal stimulus in the U.S.
Investors traded cautiously ahead of today's FOMC decision (a 25bp interest rate cut is widely discounted) and the BoE on Thursday (expected to hold interest rates at 4.75%). On the macro data front, US retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in November, and in Germany, the IFO expectations index surprised to the downside as confidence in the country continued to weaken.
Political tensions in France took center stage during yesterday's session after far-right and far-left parties submitted no-confidence motions against Prime Minister Barnier, risking the collapse of the current government. French government yields rose, its risk premium widened further, and the euro sold-off to 1.05 against the dollar.
Investor sentiment diverged on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. In the Eurozone, government bond yields were mixed, with French spreads widening after the European Commission endorsed the French draft budget for 2025, which aims to reduce public deficit from 6.1% of GDP to 5%. The budget has yet to be approved in parliament amid a political stalemate.
Investor sentiment ended the week on the up amid positive reports over a potential antiviral drug to treat COVID-19. As risk appetite rose, stocks increased across Europe and the U.S., the USD weakened and commodity prices advanced (in oil markets, the barrel of Brent closed moderately above $43).
In yesterday's session investors traded cautiously as they digested political developments. On the one hand, tensions between the US and China rose as the White House gave China 72 hours to close its consulate in Houston amid accusations of spying. China has said it intends to retaliate.
The spread of new COVID-19 cases weakened investor's sentiment in the last session of August. Stock indices declined in most advanced and emerging economies except for the heavy technology-weighted Nasdaq index, in the US, and the Japanese Nikkei.
Investors traded on a cautious note in the first session of the week. U.S. stocks advanced across the board (including the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which had been lagging in the last sessions) while European indices were mixed. In fixed-income markets, yields on U.S. and euro area core sovereign bonds were roughly unchanged.
Financial markets started the week with subdued trading and no relevant macroeconomic data releases. Government bond yields fell slightly in the US and rose in the eurozone, with curves flattening and peripheral spreads flat. Several ECB officials highlighted yesterday their concerns about Trump's protectionist plans impact on growth rather than inflation.
Investors' risk appetite eased slightly on Friday as the day's US macro data supported a more hawkish Fed, right after Powell had hinted at a slower pace of Fed cuts on Thursday. The US economy remains strong: retail sales rose in October and the NY Empire Manufacturing survey surprised to the upside, while October import prices also surprised to the upside.
European stocks edged down on Friday, while U.S. stocks notched gains despite posting a slight loss on the week as investors faced the reality of a second coronavirus wave in Europe and the uncertainty around further stimulus in the U.S.
Investor risk appetite remained fairly high as the US election results were digested. The Fed cut rates by 25bps yesterday as expected (as did the BoE) noting an easing labour market and robust economic growth. Investors regarded the rise in US jobless claims last week as due to hurricane disruptions. Treasury yields fell, reversing some of the previous day's moves.
Investor's mood all over the world was driven by Trump's victory in the US election, which was larger than expected and avoided uncertainty and volatility in financial markets. Trump's economic plans, which could boost the US economy in the short term, but reduce potential growth and create inflation in the long term, shaped investor's reaction.
Investors started the week in a risk-off mood as polls showed a tight race in today's US presidential election, which could potentially delay the vote count for weeks. Government bond yields were mixed in the eurozone and fell in the US, especially the longer-dated references, as traders await this Thursday's Fed meeting.
Inflation eased below 2% in Germany and Italy in September (1.6% and 0.7% yoy, respectively), as it did in Spain and France. ECB President Lagarde remarked recent data has strengthened the central bank's confidence in the return of inflation to target, sending the probability implied by futures markets of a 25bp cut in the October meeting to 90%.
Financial markets had a mixed start to the week as investors tried to reconcile seemingly contradictory signals. In the eurozone, government bond yields fell after September's PMI showed a weak manufacturing sector weighing heavily on the core economies. A sharp, unexpected deterioration in the French services PMI also pushed up the country's spread.
The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 50 bp sent global stocks soaring during yesterday's session. Equities climed more than 2% in the euro area, and in the US, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high, as stocks priced in the soft-landing scenario.