Resultats de la cerca

The week ended on a ‘higher for longer’ note, which weighed on assets. US non-farm payrolls for May showed a greater-than-expected job creation and an acceleration in average hourly earnings growth, while euro area compensation per employee also surprised on the upside, sending sovereign yields higher across the board on both sides of the Atlantic.

In the last session of the week, stock indices declined across the globe and sovereign yields edged lower amid continuing concerns over trade tensions between the U.S. and China and better-than-expected U.S. retail sales.

Investors flew to safe-haven assets in the first session of the week as they reacted to the weekend's drone strike on Saudi Arabia's oil production facilities.

Volatility continued to dominate across financial markets at the start of the week, as investors took position ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting staring today and following the release of feeble economic sentiment data (final manufacturing PMIs). EU leaders were still evaluating a new round of sanctions against Russia.

Investors kicked-off the week on a cautious note as they await the ECB's Governing Council meeting (on Thursday), widely expected to lower interest rates by 25bp, and US inflation figures for November (released on Wednesday), a key report for the Fed's decision next week.

Financial markets ended the week on a mixed note. In the US, November payrolls data showed that employment grew slightly more than expected (with October data revised upwards), but unemployment rose by 0.1% to 4.2% and wage growth accelerated slightly. Treasury yields fell and the probability of a -25bp cut by the Fed in December rose to 90%.

Lower-than-expected inflation data on both sides of the Atlantic drove financial markets' sentiment. Preliminary figures from Spain and France showed headline inflation below 2%, at 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. In the US, the PCE price index fell to 2.2% from 2.5%, making solid progress towards the Fed's target.

Stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial production data in the US renewed expectations of a soft-landing for the economy, just as the Fed is expected to lower interest rates today. Rate futures are reflecting a 65% probability of a 50 bp rate cut and a total of -116 bp over the remaining three meetings this year.

Sentiment in sovereign bond markets during yesterday's session turned more positive following the revision of US GDP Q1, which showed the economy grew somewhat less than previously estimated (0.33% vs 0.42% q/q), giving the Federal Reserve more room to lower interest rates this year. Yields on sovereign bonds fell across the board.

Financial markets extended losses on Thursday, following the confirmation by the ECB to accelerate the withdrawal of  policy accommodation, including ending net purchases on July 1st and starting a rate liftoff cycle on the 21st.

Risk-aversion returned to the fore during a volatile session on Thursday, as investors continued to digest recent monetary policy decisions by central banks (Fed, BoE) and took on board disappointing economic data (e.g. the fall in factory orders in Germany and the uptick in new jobless claims in the US). 

As expected, the ECB lowered interest rates by 25 bp, taking the depo and refi rates to 3.75% and 4.25%, respectively. As for its next steps, the ECB once again remarked future decisions will be “data-dependent”, noting that the inflation path will not be exempt from surprises.

Euro area markets had a cautious session ahead of the no-confidence vote in France, approved late last night. Sovereign bond yields were mostly flat, and the region's main equity indices posted small gains. The euro was flat against its main peers, leaving its cross with the US dollar at 1.05.

Investors traded cautiously amid political tensions in France, where lawmakers are set to vote today on no-confidence motions. Euro area sovereign bond yields edged lower, and France's risk premium narrowed to 85bp after reaching 88bp in the previous session. The region's main stock indices advanced slightly, and the euro held steady at 1.05 against the dollar.

Investors started the week with a greater risk appetite than the previous one. Sovereign bond yields were mixed among regions and maturities while, in the money markets, yields fell on both sides of the Atlantic.

Risk-off session in financial markets as the conflict in the Middle East intensified with an Iranian missile attack on Israel. Global stocks closed the session with losses of around 1%, while sovereign bonds, the US dollar and gold all rose as investors turned to safe assets. Brent oil prices rose by more than 2% close to $74/barrel.

Investors continued to adjust their expectations for future interest rate cuts following strong PMIs, higher-than-expected wage growth in the euro area, and some hawkish remarks from central bank officials. Markets are now pricing in just two cuts from the ECB this year and one cut from the Fed, down from three and two, respectively, last week.

Financial markets had a mixed session yesterday, although the overall mood among investors remained gloomy as they await today's U.S. inflation report for August, which is expected to show easing price pressures. Government bond yields fell across the board on both sides of the Atlantic.

In the first session of the week, investors' sentiment deteriorated amid concerns on whether the ongoing withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation will be able to tackle inflationary pressures without leading to a recession.

In the first session of the week, investors awaited for clues on the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.