Resultats de la cerca

The week started in a subdued mood in financial markets, with investors still assessing the implications of the patient approach of central banks on monetary policy. Yesterday, ECB member de Cos followed previous comments from Wunsch and Holzmann and said that it is premature to talk about interest rate cuts.

In yesterday’s session, which was closed in the US due to Thanksgiving holiday, investors traded cautiously amid signs of weak economic growth in the euro area in Q4. Although the Composite euro area flash PMI rose modestly from 46.5 points to 47.1, it remained in contractionary territory.

Financial markets ended the week with subdued trading volumes, as the US trading session was shortened for the Thanksgiving holiday, which reduced participants and hence liquidity. 

Government bond yields extended their losses across the board on Wednesday as investors continued to focus on future interest rate cuts by major central banks. These expectations were boosted by upwardly revised Q3 US GDP growth figures and better-than-expected November inflation figures in Germany and Spain.

The ECB's caution regarding a pivot in its hiking cycle weighed on investors in yesterday's session. Lagarde's press conference appeared hawkish in contrast to Powell's and the Fed's dot plot on Wednesday, which cooled market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 in both sides of the Atlantic.

In yesterday's session, investors traded without major economic references, beyond the Germany IFO which confirmed weakness in business sentiment, and amid continuing comments from central bank officials trying to push back against the expectation of the first interest rate hike (e.g.: ECB's Stournaras and Fed's Mester). 

Yesterday’s session saw investors in a wait-and-see mode ahead of today’s key US inflation report, which is expected to shed some light on the Fed’s next interest rate decisions. Sovereign bond yields rose slightly across the board as Fed’s Williams cooled expectations of imminent rate cuts, saying the Fed still has room to cover to reach inflation’s 2% target.

Stronger-than-expected economic data in the US and hawkish comments by ECB officials were the main drivers of a session where sovereign yields rose and equities declined across the board.

The ECB governing council left interest rates unchanged and Lagarde remarked how core inflation is on a downward path and wage growth has stabilized. These remarks pushed investors to assign a 90% probability of an interest rate cut in the ECB’s next meeting in April, and pushed down sovereign bond yields.

In the final session of the week, market sentiment was mixed on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, government bond yields remained fairly flat following Thursday’s ECB meeting, after which investors see a first rate cut in April as more plausible. Major European stock market indices rallied on this expectation, posting a week of strong gains.

Investors’ mood was mixed yesterday as they grappled with a raft of data. In the US, Treasury yields fell again despite the Fed's hawkish tone on Wednesday, weighed down by concerns about some regional US banks and higher than expected jobless claims, although Q4 productivity and labour cost data were encouraging for disinflationary momentum.

In yesterday’s session investors took note of the different central bank speeches offered by Fed and ECB officials. In general, policymakers would like to see more evidence that inflation is decisively in the route to reach 2% before easing the monetary policy stance.

In a session without any major economic news, investors traded cautiously as they continued to assess the probability of future interest rate cuts given the current inflation and activity dynamics.

US January CPI report surprised markets by showing an increase in prices of 3.1% y/y vs 3.0% expected, down from 3.4% last month, with core inflation unchanged at 3.9%. The news shook markets, sending global government bond yields higher and equity markets sharply lower, while pushing back the expectation of the Fed’s first cut from May to June.

In yesterday's session, mixed macroeconomic data releases were the main drivers in financial markets. On the one hand, Q4 GDP figures showed that Japan and the UK are in technical recession (with -0.1% and -0.3% q/q growth rates) and US retail sales and industrial production fell by 0.8% and -0.1% m/m, respectively.

In yesterday’s session investors traded cautiously as they await PMIs for advanced economies to be released on Thursday, the Fed’s and ECB’s minutes (out today and tomorrow, respectively) and key corporate earnings in the US.

Investors traded cautiously in yesterday’s session as they await key inflation data this week. The unexpected drop in US consumer confidence index to 106.7 (vs. 115 expected) from 110.9 in January, and the low levels on confidence in Germany (Consumer Confidence Index at -29 as expected), did little to move markets yesterday.

Macro data releases in the US yesterday gave investors mixed signals about the state of the economy. Higher-than expected producer price index (1.6% yoy vs 1.2% expected) and lower-than-expected retail sales (0.0% vs 0.4% expected) warned about sticky inflation and an economic slowdown, but unemployment benefit requests surprised to downside.

In yesterday’s session monetary policy continued to take center stage in financial markets. Investors positioned themselves ahead of today’s US Federal Reserve meeting (where no change in interest rates is expected and the focus will be placed on the dot plot) and weighed comments from ECB officials.

The future path of central bank official interest rates continued to be the main driver in financial markets, as investors reacted to the US Federal reserve meeting and to several ECB members’ speeches.