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Markets ended the week lower as long-term yields surged and several Fed officials expressed their worries about inflation. Sovereign curves steepened: short-end rates eased but long and ultra-long maturities rose, after hawkish remarks from Cleveland Fed President Hammack calling for higher rates to curb inflation.

Friday’s session had a risk-on tone, with global bond yields rising after the Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75% and signaled further tightening. European yields were additionally supported by higher ECB inflation forecasts for 2026 and plans to fund new aid to Ukraine through increased debt issuance.

Euro area sovereign bond yields continued to fall during yesterday's session, as earlier data releases that showed a lower-than-expected inflation in France and Germany were complemented with an inflation in the euro area in December of a 2% annual variation. Expectations of an ECB rate hike fell as well, as now the market does not price one until 2028.

Risk-off session as geopolitical risks remained in focus. Oil prices climbed for a fifth consecutive session, with Brent crude gaining more than 10% over the past five days to trade around $66/barrel. Gold reached fresh record highs above $4,600/ounce. On both sides of the Atlantic, sovereign yields edged lower, while equities modestly retreated.

During yesterday's session, the Japanese equity index Nikkei-225 fell nearly 2% amid concerns over a potential currency intervention. Global stocks advanced modestly, as investors traded cautiously ahead of a heavy earnings calendar, with major tech firms reporting later this week (up to 33% of the S&P 500 capitalization reports this week).

Mixed session to close off the week, with US investors reacting to President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, while euro area markets focused on stronger-than-expected economic data, including upside surprises in GDP growth from Spain and Germany.

Rising concerns over intensifying competition in the AI sector triggered a sharp sell-off in technology stocks, weighing on broader market sentiment. Euro area equity indices mostly closed modestly lower, while US equities saw larger declines. On both sides of the Atlantic, cyclical sectors, including industrials and energy, outperformed on a relative basis.

Euro area sovereign yields edged lower, while the EURUSD cross held steady near 1.18, after the region's January inflation cooled, with headline inflation falling to 1.7% from 2.0% on lower energy prices and core easing to 2.2% as services inflation moderated. Attention now turns to today’s ECB policy meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged.

Yesterday's session was dominated by heightened global uncertainty following the US Supreme Court's ruling on Friday, which struck down the emergency tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Investors adopted a  risk-off stance ahead of a week with no major data releases. Market volatility picked up, reflecting elevated policy uncertainty.

Yesterday’s session reflected a risk-on tone in European and Asian markets, as investors reacted to late Monday remarks from President Trump suggesting that the Middle East conflict could end soon. Asian equities rebounded sharply, with Japan’s Nikkei-225 rising around 3%, and the Spanish IBEX-35 outperforming European peers.

Yesterday’s session saw a sharp turnaround in sentiment. Markets initially opened under pressure, with equities declining and sovereign yields rising amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices. Sentiment shifted after President Trump announced a temporary halt to planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, following reports of constructive talks between the Washington and Tehran. Brent prices quickly fell just below $100/barrel.

Yesterday’s session was marked by elevated volatility and choppy trading, as investors weighed conflicting signals around potential US–Iran talks. While President Trump suggested progress, Iranian officials denied that negotiations were taking place, adding uncertainty to the outlook. Oil prices moved higher on these tensions.

Yesterday's session was driven by news that a two-week ceasefire agreement had been reached between the US and Iran, with a potential reopening of the strait of Hormuz that curbed inflationary concerns. Energy prices fell sharply, leaving Brent below USD 95/barrel and TTF at EUR 45/MWh, and volatility decreased as well.

President Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, but investors remained cautious amid limited progress on US–Iran talks and the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy prices moved higher, with Brent crude rising toward $100/bbl and TTF gas moving above €42/MWh.

Yesterday's session began on a positive tone, but sentiment deteriorated as the day progressed amid rising concerns that Iran may not participate in upcoming talks in Pakistan and with the ceasefire deadline approaching. Energy prices rose, with Brent trading above USD 98/barrel and TTF closing at EUR 42/MWh.

Markets remained caught between geopolitical tensions and a key run of central bank meetings. With no progress reported in US–Iran negotiations, energy prices moved higher, with Brent crude rising above USD 110/bbl for the first time in three weeks. Risk sentiment stayed subdued, while concerns over the inflationary impact of higher energy costs persisted.

Sentiment deteriorated as stalled US–Iran negotiations and reports that Washington may be preparing for a prolonged conflict pushed energy prices sharply higher. Meanwhile, the Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, but highlighted rising inflation risks, with the statement drawing three dissents from officials opposed to maintaining an easing bias.

Risk appetite improved on Tuesday after senior officials from Iran and the US confirmed that the truce remains in place and that negotiations are ongoing. In this context, crude oil prices fell, although Brent remained around USD 110 per barrel.

Risk sentiment weakened progressively on Thursday, as early optimism over potential progress in US‑Iran talks faded by reports of skirmishes near the Strait of Hormuz, alongside news that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had again lifted restrictions on US military access to their airspace and military bases.