During a volatile session, financial markets experienced risk-off flows, as investors took on board another round of hawkish commentaries from various Fed officials, weak sentiment data in Europe and escalating tensions around Ukraine. Today, officials from NATO and EU leaders are meeting in Brussels to discuss new sanctions to Russia.
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Investors traded with a risk-on sentiment on Thursday, following better-than-expected economic sentiment data across advanced economies and after EU leaders refrained from imposing sanctions on Russian energy exports. The US government also announced a plan to boost supplies of liquified natural gas to the EU.
Investors traded with cautious optimism at the last session of the week, taking on board a new round of hawkish comments from Fed officials, weak survey data (e. g. the monthly fall in the IFO business climate in March) and the EU-US plan to cut reliance on Russian natural gas. The Ukraine-Russia war has now extended for over 1 month.
Financial markets experienced risk-on flows as investors read positively the advances in Russian-Ukrainian talks. Despite not reaching a deal to cease fire, both sides agreed to de-escalate the conflict. In this context, volatility declined and stock indices rose across advanced and emerging economies' trading floors.
Investors closed the week trading with a risk-on mode, recovering some of the losses of previous sessions following the hawkish rhetoric by major central banks, including the 75 bp interest rate hike by the ECB and comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who reiterated the need to act forthrightly on inflation “until the job is done”.
Risk aversion returned to the fore on Tuesday after CPI inflation surprised to the upside in the US, fueling a new upward revision in investors’ expectations about the pace of monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Investors continued to trade with a cautious approach, still digesting the upside surprise in the US inflation data and taking on board a plan by the EU to intervene energy markets.
Risk aversion continued to set the tone on Thursday, with sentiment hampered by fears that elevated inflation could keep central banks in a tightening cycle for longer and the increasing threat of energy rationing in Europe this winter.
Investors ended the week trading with a pessimistic tone amid concerns on the economic outlook and tightening monetary policy. On a positive note, the US consumers' inflation expectations survey (University of Michigan) showed the lowest rate since last September, easing concerns that the Fed could hike rates this week by 100bp.
In yesterday’s session, investors traded cautiously as they continued to assess the intensity and duration of the monetary policy tightening that central banks are likely to agree this week and in the coming months.
Yesterday financial markets recorded a highly volatile session after Russia announced a plan to hold a referendum in the occupied regions in Ukraine this weekend. Investors also dialed up their expectations of tighter monetary policy from central banks, after the Swedish Riksbank surprised with a 100bp hike.
The US Federal Reserve’s meeting centered the stage in a risk-off session, also spurred by the escalation of Russia’s offensive in Ukraine. As expected, the central bank raised policy interest rates by 75 bp while President Jerome Powell said that interest rates will need to stay in restrictive territory for longer, as shown in the dot plot.
Yesterday, investors continued to digest the hawkish tone of the main central banks. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank decided yesterday to hike interest rate by 50 bp and 75bp to 2.25% and 0.50%, respectively. In the UK the central bank also decided, unanimously, to gradually reduce the size of its balance sheet.
Investors continued to trade with a cautious approach at the start of the week, with risk appetite overshadowed by fears of persistent inflationary pressures and a global recession. UK markets remained in focus, after the pound fell near parity against the USD and bond yields surged as the government reiterated plans to cut taxes.
Volatility remained elevated across financial markets, with investors keeping the focus on the mix of monetary and fiscal policy across advanced economies, more notably in the UK. On the data front, growth in house prices in the US slowed down in July while US consumer confidence improved for a second month in a row in September.
Financial markets recorded yet another session with high volatility, with the key drivers remaining the direction of monetary policy, the escalation in tensions with Russia and the strength of the USD.
Risk aversion continued to set the tone during a volatile session on Thursday, with the focus turning to the risk of persistency of inflationary pressures and a new round of hawkish commentary from various central bank officials.
On Friday, investors continued to weigh the hawkish monetary policy agenda of the main central banks and the upside surprises on inflation data. In the euro area, headline HICP inflation jumped from 9.1% to 10.0% and core inflation increased by 0.5pp to 4.8% yoy.
In the first session of the week, investors traded with optimism, after the worse-than-expected US ISM data for September let traders to think the Fed could pursue a less aggressive monetary policy stance than previously expected. Nevertheless, NY Fed President John Williams said that there is still job to do to curb inflation.
In yesterday's session, investors maintained their appetite for riskier assets, after a drop in the number of job vacancies in the US fueled expectations of a monetary policy pivot from the Fed. In this direction, the central bank of Australia decided to hike rates by 25bp, slowing down the pace of its tightening.