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Investors continued to trade with a cautious mood on Wednesday, as results from the US midterm elections suggested the Republicans may gain control of the House but the Democrats could hold on the Senate. Investors were also taking position ahead of a crucial CPI inflation report in the US today.

Investors continued to trade with caution, taking position ahead of the publication today of the crucial US payrolls report for February. Data released on Thursday showed an unexpected increase in new jobless claims last week (to 211,000), which contrasted with signals from other surveys pointing to further tightening in the labour market.

In the last session of the week, a mixed US labor market report left investors trading cautiously. While the pace of job creation eased to the lowest reading in 30 months in June (209k) and the previous two months were revised lower, wage increases remained elevated (4.4% y/y) and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.6%.

Investors continued to err on the side of caution during a volatile session marked by the release of US CPI inflation for January. The report showed headline CPI rose by 0.5% m/m (+0,1% in December), while the year-on-year rate eased only mildly (6.4% after 6.5% in December), above expectations (6.2% according to Bloomberg).

Financial markets closed last week with mixed results, with equity prices falling across Europe and EMs but recording a late-session rally in the US, as investors weighed the prospect of a more aggressive withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus by the Fed with upbeat earnings reports from some key US tech firms (e.g. Apple).

Investors continued to trade with a positive mood on Tuesday, with solid corporate earnings reports outweighing hawkish signals from central bankers and higher-than-expected inflation prints.

Financial markets ended the day with mixed results, with investors weighting in a batch of positive earnings reports with rising inflation data and weak signals from the US labour market.

Investors closed the week extending their appetite for risk, albeit consolidating and taking profits after the rebound recorded across asset classes in the previous sessions. Sentiment was also lifted by a positive start of the Q2 corporate earnings seasons, with better-than-expected results for the reporting large US banks.

In yesterday's session, the US CPI report of August centered the stage in financial markets. Headline inflation surged from 0.2% m/m to 0.6% due to an increase in gasoline prices- (3.7% y/y) while core inflation ticked modestly up from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% (4.3% y/y).

Investors started the week trading with caution as they continued to digest the positive figures of the January's employment report in the US and took positions ahead of Thursday's release of CPI inflation. In the euro area, ECB comments moderated financial markets expectations for a big monetary policy tightening.

In the last session of the week, the awaited release of the September US employment report changed investors’ expectations of the path of interest ahead. Non-farm payrolls increased by a 336k, notably above expectations, and the two previous months were revised by 119k higher. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%.

Risk-off sentiment took over the market yesterday after the US JOLTS report showed an unexpected rise in job openings in August, which could support further rate hikes by the Fed, although comments from Fed officials on the day were mixed, with Mester leaning towards a hike at the upcoming meeting and Bostic opting to hold.

In yesterday's session, investors continued to digest the lower-than-expected US inflation report for June and traded with a risk-on mood. In addition, US PPI data for June reinforced the disinflationary environment while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, one of the most hawkish FOMC member in this cycle, announced his resignation.

In the beginning of the week, investors continued to digest the US employment figures report released on Friday, which suggested that the tightness in the labor market is far from moderating at the pace the Fed would like to see.

Market sentiment remained subdued on Tuesday as investors awaited Thursday’s US inflation report for December, which could shed some light on the Fed’s future interest rate decisions. In this context, government bond yields rose in the eurozone, despite the negative surprise from German industrial production for November, and fell slightly in the US.

In yesterday’s session, global stock markets advanced as investors increased risk appetite following reports about a Chinese stimulus to support the local stock market, a better-than-expected earnings season in the U.S. so far, and a favorable US PMI reading. Sovereign bond yields edged lower in the euro area and slightly rose in the U.S.

Investors traded cautiously in yesterday’s session as they await the ECB’s decision and US macro data in the coming days. Sovereign bond yields edged higher across the board, while stock markets were mixed, falling in the euro area and modestly rising in the US. Chinese stocks rallied on reports of a government stimulus to stabilize stock markets.

US November CPI report came mostly in line with expectations: prices grew 0.1% MoM (vs. 0.0% expected) and 3.1% YoY (as expected) down from 3.2% in October, reinforcing the view the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its meeting today. The lack of surprises left markets rather muted, with treasury yields flat and stock indices slightly advancing.

Investors started the week on a subdued note as they await key central bank meetings and data releases this week. Sovereign bond yields were little changed ahead of today's US CPI report. Yesterday, the NY Fed's 1-year inflation expectations index for November extended its decline to 3.4% showing the impact of interest rate hikes.

Investors ended the week by revising their expectations for future interest rates upwards as Friday’s US employment report for November beat expectations for job creation and a lower unemployment rate. This caused Treasury yields to rise across the board, as it should force the Fed to remain hawkish and potentially delay any interest rate cuts.