Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Sovereign bond yields rose across Europe yesterday after an ECB survey showed consumer expectations for inflation edged up, which could pressure the ECB for further rate hikes. Inflation concerns were also stoked by Brent crude oil reaching a new year high after Saudi Arabia and Russia announced an extension of supply curbs through year's end.
Yesterday’s session saw thin trading volumes in the market due to a holiday in the US. Chinese stocks ended higher, as authorities stepped up efforts to support a struggling property sector. The Shanghai CSI 300 index was up 1.4%, led by strong gains in developer companies, and drove stocks up all across Asia.
Investors ended the week digesting a raft of month-end economic data on both sides of the Atlantic. In the Eurozone, Thursday's release of August inflation figures, which showed headline inflation stable at 5.3%, sent sovereign bond yields higher and major stock indices lower on Friday, despite an encouraging slowdown in core inflation.
In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously as they awaited for today's key US employment report for the month of August. Also, in the euro area a mixed inflation HICP was released, with all components except energy exhibiting a disinflationary path in August.
In yesterday's session, economic data releases continued to center the stage. In the US, Q2 GDP figures were revised downwards from 2.4% q/q SAAR to 2.1%, while, in the euro area, country members' inflation figures failed to prove a decisive trend towards the 2%. Euro area aggregate data will be released today.
In yesterday's session, weaker-than-expected US economic data led investors to lower their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes at upcoming meetings.
Investors started the week trading cautiously in a relatively quiet session, as they awaited for key economic data due to be released this week (e.g.: August euro area inflation and US labor market report).
In the last session of the week, investors digested the central bank presidents’ speeches at the awaited Jackson Hole conference. There, Jerome Powell said that the US Federal Reserve will proceed carefully in the coming months and that monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer, hinting at a possible pause in the September meeting.
Eurozone sovereign bond yields remained broadly flat In Thursday's session as investors awaited the Jackson Hole meeting, which started last night with mixed comments from ECB officials. Centeno advised caution on further hikes, as downside risks for the economy are materializing, while Nagel said it's 'much too early' for a pause.
In yesterday's session, weak PMI data for August, which signalled a slowdown in economic growth across the Atlantic, but most acutely in Europe, caused sovereign bond yields to fall across the board (around 13bps. for the long-term references). In the eurozone, PMI data for the services sector fell below the 50 threshold for the first time in 2023.
As investors await the Jackson Hole conference for some guidance on monetary policy, European sovereign bond yields fell across the board in Tuesday's session. Meanwhile US short-term references posted gains, boosted by Fed's Barkin hawkish remarks on how the current strong economy would allow for higher rates should inflation pick up.
With little novelties on the data front, investors started the week resuming their positioning to higher rates for longer selling off sovereign bonds, bringing yields up again. The surge was greater on long-term references and widespread across developed economies, with the US 10-year benchmark rising 9 bps. to hit multi-year highs.