En 2025, el yen se depreció de forma sostenida frente al euro, pese a las políticas restrictivas del Banco de Japón y las políticas ligeramente expansivas del BCE. Esto se debe a varios motivos: el diferencial de tipos todavía negativo, la incertidumbre política y fiscal de Japón o la debilidad estructural del país nipón, que depende en exceso de importaciones de energía y otras materias primas. Esta dinámica se ha moderado a inicios de este año, en parte afectada por las especulaciones de una intervención coordinada entre Estados Unidos y Japón sobre el yen y el giro en el panorama político.
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Markets continued to exhibit a mixed performance as investors weighed data releases and increasing COVID-19 infections. European stocks and sovereign yields declined after euro area industrial production had posted a lower-than-expected rebound in May (+12.4% mom and -20.9% yoy). Yet, in FX markets the euro rose towards $1.14.
A week-long losing streak in global stock markets ceased on Friday as better than expected earnings results outweighed a worsening of coronavirus cases in the US and Europe. In Europe, the Eurostoxx50 ended the session 1.7% higher despite new coronavirus retrictions in some cities, while the S&P 500 edged up very slightly.
In the last session of the week, inflation and GDP releases centered the stage in European trading floors. HICP inflation for October surprised on the upside in most euro area countries as well as Q3 GDP figures for Germany (+0.2 q/q instead of the expected contraction). Today aggregated figures for the euro area will be released.
Activity in Spain’s real estate market is recovering from its extraordinary slump during the first lockdown. In Q3 2020, house sales and new building permits recovered much of the ground lost, a positive trend we expect to consolidate in 2021. Moreover, the impact of the crisis on house prices has been relatively moderate so far, although we expect these will continue to adjust in the latter part of 2020 and the first half of 2021. In particular, CaixaBank Research’s new house price forecasting models at the level of province, based on large amounts of information (big data) and applying machine learning techniques, predict that house prices will fall in 7 out of 10 Spanish provinces in 2021 and grow very moderately in the rest.
Investors ended the week in a cautious mood. With U.S. markets closed on Friday for Independence Day, European stock markets declined across the board while euro area sovereign yields were little changed in both core and peripheral countries. The euro fluctuated close to, but below, $1.18.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, although yesterday brought some relative calm after the sharp volatility seen earlier in the week. Brent crude traded in a $80–85/barrel range before settling near $81, after President Trump said the US would protect shipping routes in the region. European natural gas prices fell back below €50/MWh. Equity markets continued to slide in Asia but recovered in the US and Europe, while the dollar stabilized around 1.16 against the euro.
The Spanish housing market is in the midst of a boom, driven by lower interest rates, the improvement in purchasing power and population growth. Demand continues to grow sharply, with foreign buyers playing a notable role, while supply is also steadily gaining traction, although it still does not compensate for the housing deficit accumulated since 2021. House prices continue to accelerate, now exceeding the peak reached in 2007 in nominal terms, and signs of overvaluation are beginning to become apparent. However, the current context differs from the one prior to the bursting of the housing bubble: rather than an oversupply, there is a serious housing deficit, and that is what primarily explains the pressure on prices; moreover, households, the construction and developer sector, and the financial system are in a strong financial position. We expect prices and sales to remain dynamic in the coming quarters, underscoring the need to increase the supply of affordable housing.
Our Sectoral Indicator reflects a widespread improvement across the various sectors in 2024, particularly in some branches of manufacturing, such as the chemicals, pharmaceutical and paper industries, which have benefited from lower energy costs and an improvement in exports. By contrast, the automotive sector has slowed sharply over the course of this year, following the recovery experienced in 2023.
In the final session of the week, market sentiment was mixed on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, government bond yields remained fairly flat following Thursday’s ECB meeting, after which investors see a first rate cut in April as more plausible. Major European stock market indices rallied on this expectation, posting a week of strong gains.
In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously amid growing COVID-19 cases and better-than-expected Q3 GDP releases in the euro area (euro area aggregate +12.7 vs Consensus +9.6; Spain +16.7 vs Consensus +13.5%).
¿Cuándo empezarán a bajar los tipos los tipos de interés? ¿Se desmarcará el BCE de la Fed? ¿Podemos dar por acabada la crisis inflacionista en Europa? Ponemos a prueba a nuestros observadores de los bancos centrales en este especial sobre política monetaria de Economía Exprés y comentamos los buenos datos de crecimiento con los que nos ha sorprendido la economía española el primer trimestre de 2024.
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Investors traded cautiously in yesterday’s session as they await key economic releases this week, including euro area 1Q GDP (today), which is expected to show the economy grew 0.2% yoy, euro area April inflation (today) expected to stay at 2.4% yoy, and the Fed’s FOMC meeting tomorrow, where markets anticipate no changes to the Fed’s target rate.
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Monthly Report | May 2024 | Núm. 489
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The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on inequality in Spain
In yesterday’s session, investors had to weigh mixed economic data indicators, as flash PMIs showed how the manufacturing sector in the euro area weakened slightly in March, deep below the 50-points threshold, while the services index managed to increase (52.9 for the euro area).
Clàudia Canals aborda las perspectivas de la economía internacional en 2021 en este webinario organizado por CaixaBank Talks el 16 de diciembre.
In yesterday’s session, which was closed in the US due to Thanksgiving holiday, investors traded cautiously amid signs of weak economic growth in the euro area in Q4. Although the Composite euro area flash PMI rose modestly from 46.5 points to 47.1, it remained in contractionary territory.
Las bolsas empezaron la semana al alza tanto en EE. UU. como en los principales parqués europeos, mientras que en el mercado de renta fija las yields soberanas estadounidenses y de la periferia de la eurozona se movieron ligeramente al alza.
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