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Against a backdrop marked by geopolitical tensions, uncertain tariff negotiations and fiscal imbalances in key economies, this summer edition of the Monthly Report looks at how trade fragmentation and the pursuit of strategic autonomy are redefining the international economic order. At the same time, it examines other issues that are key to the Spanish economy, ranging from the relationship between employment growth and productivity, to the impact of unexpected events such as the April blackout.

In this issue, we focus on China's commodity stockpiling strategy and the fiscal room for maneuver of the new Trump administration. As for the Spanish economy, which we expect to continue to grow above the eurozone average in 2025, we present new forecasts for the real estate sector, analyze the Treasury's strategy in a context of a reduction in the public deficit and note the improvement in employment stability as a result of the decline in the temporary employment rate.