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Although the storm caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet over, we can already analyse what impact the response from the public administrations has had on wage inequality. Public sector payments to workers on furlough or those unemployed cushioned the fall in income for many workers, but to what extent did they dampen the rise in inequality? Internal CaixaBank data allow us to answer this question already, as well as allowing us to assess what would be the implications of greater efficiency in the management of these benefits.

The provisional agreement between the US and Iran reached mid-month, which extended the military truce and allowed the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered one of the sharpest drops in oil prices in recent years. This led to a significant decline in short-term global inflation expectations. However, the Fed and the ECB toughened their messages in their respective meetings and emphasised their anti-inflation stance, generating opposing forces in the markets.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been felt in the Portuguese real estate market with a reduction in sales and a slowdown in prices. All the indicators suggest that, over the coming quarters, the real estate market will continue to suffer a correction as a result of the uncertain environment, the fall in household incomes, the reduction in purchases by foreigners and the lower levels of investment in accommodation businesses.

The improvement in the supply shocks, with the correction in energy prices and the easing of the bottlenecks, together with the fiscal support measures and the strength of the labour market, are contributing to better-than-expected economic activity. Indeed, this is even leading to an upward revision of GDP growth forecasts for 2023.

The announcement of a significant and widespread increase in tariffs by the Trump administration, coupled with an erratic and unpredictable economic policy, has triggered fears of a further slowdown in the global economy. In this context, it is time to re-evaluate where the Spanish economy currently stands, assessing its strengths and weaknesses in the new scenario.

We outline the main factors that will dominate the macroeconomic scenario in the coming months and we update our forecasts. In 2023, we expect GDP to grow by 1.3% and the inflation rate, still high, to stand at an annual average of 4.2%. Employment will continue to grow, albeit at more modest rates, and we expect the housing market to slow during the course of the year, with no sharp corrections. The budget deficit will remain at around 4% of GDP, the same level as we project for 2022.

After a January filled with a range of emotions (Venezuela, Greenland, etc.), the first quarter of the year will close with new changes in the tariff landscape, following the US Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate the legal path used by the Trump administration to redesign a significant portion of the tariff framework and, above all, with the intensification of tensions in the Middle East following the outbreak of the military conflict in Iran. This new twist in the geopolitical landscape will once again test the resilience shown by the business cycle in recent years, amid a spike in energy prices and uncertainty in the short term.

The evolution of the conflict in the Middle East remains key for the global outlook. Following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the data show a somewhat erratic increase in trade flows, consistent with warnings from various international agencies that normalisation will take months. In addition, geopolitical uncertainty remains high and the complex dynamics surrounding the US-Iran agreement highlight its fragility.

The global economy will therefore continue to face major challenges in 2023, given the disruptive dynamics that continue to be present. With the unknowns regarding the performance of the Chinese economy and the evolution of the conflict in Ukraine, minimising the damage inflicted on the labour market by the current cycle of monetary tightening, as well as keeping the financial channel isolated from the noise, will be essential.

At the end of April, the government submitted to the European Commission the 2026 Annual Progress Report (APR), the document which tracks progress against the 2025-2028 fiscal and structural plan to which it committed with Brussels. In this article, we analyse the state of the public finances based on the report.

The Spanish economy has held up better than expected in a complex and globally adverse environment during the first half of the year. Nevertheless, the indicators available for the second half of the year show a change of tone and the pace of growth is beginning to weaken.

With all the attention at the start of the year focused on how the Fed and the ECB will go about implementing the shift in monetary policy, and with the feeling that the rate cuts could begin at different times on each side of the Atlantic, in recent weeks there have been certain developments that could shed some light on the agitated world of monetary policy.

For the first time in years supply is unable to respond to the surge in demand which is occurring as a result of both the spending of pent-up savings accumulated during the lockdowns and the extraordinarily expansionary tone of economic policy. The risk is that the current mismatch becomes entrenched until well into next year, which could alter the global economy’s path to recovery.

The rise of AI has led to hopes of a new industrial revolution and, at the same time, fears of another bubble. This ambivalence extends to stock market valuations: they rest on expectations of vast revenue growth, but at the same time, there are doubts about their sustainability, either because the expectations themselves may disappoint or due to the eye-watering spending and investment plans being drawn up by firms in the sector.

The CBO’s report published in June reveals that, in the absence of any substantial changes in fiscal policy, the US’ public accounts are set to deteriorate significantly over the coming decade: by 2034 the deficit would represent 7% of GDP, well above the historical level of 3.7%, while public debt would continue to climb to new highs, reaching 122% of GDP.

The return of tariffs as a central tool of US economic policy has marked a turning point in 2025. One of the explicit objectives of the White House’s new tariff strategy is to reduce the persistent trade deficit in goods. However, far from producing an orderly reduction, the succession of announcements and the irregular implementation of tariffs have generated significant distortions in trade flows, especially in imports. In this context, the data available to date does not yet show any clear change in the trade deficit. However, these distortions are indeed leaving a mark on the composition of imports by geographical origin. Below, we analyse how the country’s various trading partners have reacted and we provide an overview of these changes.

Following the rally of 2024, the data for Q1 have confirmed that the market is in the midst of the expansionary phase of the cycle, which has led us to revise upwards our forecast scenario.

The latest available economic indicators suggest that the trends observed for much of 2024 remain in place as the year draws to a close: buoyancy and resilience in the US, weakness in the euro area due to the delicate situation in Germany and France, and a lack of momentum in the Chinese economy in the absence of decisive economic stimuli.

All the indicators were suggesting that the growth of the Spanish economy was still strong, yet the latest GDP figure published by the National Statistics Institute has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations: the figure reveals a buoyant economy, especially taking into account the context in which it has occurred.

The outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine requires a revision of the outlook for the Spanish economy, despite the high uncertainty surrounding the scope and duration of the impact.