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The economic crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic is deep, that much is well known, but its impact is also proving to be very different from region to region. This also makes the pressure on inequality highly varied. There are several factors that can explain the large regional differences, such as the strictness of the measures imposed in each area or the differing production structures.

With an eye on the upcoming 2028-2034 EU budget, the European Semester is strengthening its role as a framework for identifying reform and investment needs. The priorities include achieving more tangible progress towards an effective integration of the Single Market, alongside strengthening the competitiveness agenda in strategic sectors and reconciling new spending needs with the European fiscal framework.

Spain’s GDP continued to record dynamic growth in Q3 2024 and the main indicators suggest this trend will continue in Q4. The strength of the labour market is boosting household incomes and inflation remains contained, despite the ongoing rebound.

With the worst of the pandemic behind us, how is consumption recovering? Are there significant differences between the various groups of the population?

Particularly noteworthy was the strong performance of the consumption indicators, especially car sales and air traffic, suggesting that tourism remains a major driver of economic activity. Moreover, the confidence indicators are showing a positive trend across all sectors, with the exception of construction.

In this Focus we present the main conclusions of the Sectoral Observatory, a new publication by CaixaBank Research in which we offer a clear and detailed analysis of the evolution of the Spanish economy from the point of view of its sectors.

With the general government deficit expected to stabilise at around 4.0% of GDP in 2023, the Treasury’s funding needs will remain high. The market will also have to absorb all of the debt held by the ECB that will not be reinvested by the central bank, after it announced a shift in its strategy in December. In this context, it is useful to put into perspective the volume of debt that the market will have to absorb during 2023.

Europe is facing not only a demanding economic situation, but also a trident of underlying challenges: the decarbonisation of the economy, the revitalisation of productivity and technological development, and the growing geopolitical fragmentation in the world. Addressing these challenges will not be possible without mobilising significant investment and financing, on the one hand, or without strengthening the international role of the euro, on the other. And this is precisely what the Capital Markets Union (CMU) is pursuing.

Today’s economic headlines are focusing on the devastating economic impact that the COVID-19 crisis is having on the labour market, businesses and households, and on the steps being taken by more than half the world’s governments and central banks to mitigate these effects. However, when everything passes, the changes that the current crisis is triggering more quietly and discreetly in many other aspects will become apparent. In this article, we focus on the changes that are likely to occur in the way we produce.

Unlike the process of tracking the achievement of the milestones and targets laid out in the Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRPs), assessing where we are in their implementation becomes more complicated when we try to quantify their macroeconomic impact and their transformative capacity for the European economy. This is becoming more relevant given the challenges posed by the increasingly complex geopolitical scenario we face.

100 days after Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president and five weeks following the announcement of the tariff hikes, there is a feeling of tense calm in the economy and the financial markets, as we wait to see how the negotiations between the major trading blocs develop.

We review the current state of the national accounts in Spain and the impact of the partial extension of the measures to support households and the productive sector in mitigating the impact of inflation, evaluating their fiscal cost.

The Ukraine conflict is nothing more than the canary in the coal mine for the growing instability on the geopolitical stage that we can expect to see over the coming years. The greatest exponent of this heightened instability will be the rivalry between China and the US.

The COVID-19 crisis is affecting the economic and financial situation of non-financial firms. However, thanks to a healthier starting position compared to the previous crisis of 2008-2013, they are managing to evade the shock with relative success.

The war that has broken out in Ukraine makes it now very difficult to predict the course of economic activity, but with every day that passes it seems increasingly unlikely that growth will reach the 5% which we were expecting it to exceed.

The pace of growth of the Spanish economy has slowed, as evidenced by the lower GDP growth rate recorded in Q3. The main reason for this is the weakness of the external environment: the euro area has registered a slight decline in economic activity and its three main economies are stagnant. In contrast, the statistics for household consumption in Spain, one of the pillars of the economy, remain strong.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the noise caused by the geopolitical context and focus on the signal coming from macroeconomic data. The sense of vulnerability is heightened by the unpredictability surrounding the pace of change in the old international order.

Following the instability involving the US regional banking system and Credit Suisse in March, and their gradual (and not always calm)  digestion in April, in May investors’ attention shifted to other sources of uncertainty.

The pandemic has been felt in all sectors of the economy, particularly in tourism services, a key sector for the Spanish economy. Nevertheless, the foreign sector held up very well in the face of an unprecedented shock, and despite not having this traditional contribution the current account managed to maintain a surplus. The starting point for rebuilding a path of sustainable growth is better than one might have expected.