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The new European Commission has completed its first 100 days amid turmoil in transatlantic relations. The implementation of Trump’s agenda (and the accompanying drama) is accelerating the change in political priorities that was already foreseen for von der Leyen’s second term. The urgent need to build a more competitive EU now seems indivisible from the goal of maintaining the security and integrity of its borders. The next 2028-2034 budget cycle should reflect the bloc’s ambition in relation to these medium-term challenges, but between now and when that budget will be defined, there are tough negotiations to be had on how to finance it and critical questions to be answered on matters such as the future of Ukraine and climate commitments.

Geopolitical instability complicates the macroeconomic scenario, while economic activity indicators point to dynamic growth in Q1. Where the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and the government's measures is most evident is in the rise in inflation. The reduction of the budget deficit in recent years helps to face the new shock, and the relatively low levels of indebtedness is another distinguishing factor compared to previous crises. Employment remained robust in March.

The latest available economic indicators suggest that the trends observed for much of 2024 remain in place as the year draws to a close: buoyancy and resilience in the US, weakness in the euro area due to the delicate situation in Germany and France, and a lack of momentum in the Chinese economy in the absence of decisive economic stimuli.

September has been a month of transition in the financial markets, characterised by increased volatility and significant movements in risk assets. Monetary policy decisions, especially the US Federal Reserve’s meeting, has set the tone for the month, together with the process of adapting to the new trade context amid higher tariffs.

The economic crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic is deep, that much is well known, but its impact is also proving to be very different from region to region. This also makes the pressure on inequality highly varied. There are several factors that can explain the large regional differences, such as the strictness of the measures imposed in each area or the differing production structures.

With an eye on the upcoming 2028-2034 EU budget, the European Semester is strengthening its role as a framework for identifying reform and investment needs. The priorities include achieving more tangible progress towards an effective integration of the Single Market, alongside strengthening the competitiveness agenda in strategic sectors and reconciling new spending needs with the European fiscal framework.

Spain’s GDP continued to record dynamic growth in Q3 2024 and the main indicators suggest this trend will continue in Q4. The strength of the labour market is boosting household incomes and inflation remains contained, despite the ongoing rebound.

The pandemic has been felt in all sectors of the economy, particularly in tourism services, a key sector for the Spanish economy. Nevertheless, the foreign sector held up very well in the face of an unprecedented shock, and despite not having this traditional contribution the current account managed to maintain a surplus. The starting point for rebuilding a path of sustainable growth is better than one might have expected.

The COVID-19 crisis is affecting the economic and financial situation of non-financial firms. However, thanks to a healthier starting position compared to the previous crisis of 2008-2013, they are managing to evade the shock with relative success.

With the worst of the pandemic behind us, how is consumption recovering? Are there significant differences between the various groups of the population?

Today’s economic headlines are focusing on the devastating economic impact that the COVID-19 crisis is having on the labour market, businesses and households, and on the steps being taken by more than half the world’s governments and central banks to mitigate these effects. However, when everything passes, the changes that the current crisis is triggering more quietly and discreetly in many other aspects will become apparent. In this article, we focus on the changes that are likely to occur in the way we produce.

The pace of growth of the Spanish economy has slowed, as evidenced by the lower GDP growth rate recorded in Q3. The main reason for this is the weakness of the external environment: the euro area has registered a slight decline in economic activity and its three main economies are stagnant. In contrast, the statistics for household consumption in Spain, one of the pillars of the economy, remain strong.

With the general government deficit expected to stabilise at around 4.0% of GDP in 2023, the Treasury’s funding needs will remain high. The market will also have to absorb all of the debt held by the ECB that will not be reinvested by the central bank, after it announced a shift in its strategy in December. In this context, it is useful to put into perspective the volume of debt that the market will have to absorb during 2023.

The conflict in the Middle East has raised European inflation to around 3% and has pushed the ECB out of its comfort zone. On 11 June, the central bank raised interest rates, and both its recent communications and financial market prices suggest that it will do so again in the coming months. The main issue is not the direct impact of rising energy costs, but the risk that this increase could spill over to other prices in the economy, leading to excessively high and persistent inflation. What do the data tell us about this spillover?

We review the current state of the national accounts in Spain and the impact of the partial extension of the measures to support households and the productive sector in mitigating the impact of inflation, evaluating their fiscal cost.

100 days after Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president and five weeks following the announcement of the tariff hikes, there is a feeling of tense calm in the economy and the financial markets, as we wait to see how the negotiations between the major trading blocs develop.

The war that has broken out in Ukraine makes it now very difficult to predict the course of economic activity, but with every day that passes it seems increasingly unlikely that growth will reach the 5% which we were expecting it to exceed.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the noise caused by the geopolitical context and focus on the signal coming from macroeconomic data. The sense of vulnerability is heightened by the unpredictability surrounding the pace of change in the old international order.

Following the instability involving the US regional banking system and Credit Suisse in March, and their gradual (and not always calm)  digestion in April, in May investors’ attention shifted to other sources of uncertainty.