David is an Economist in the Spanish Economics Department. He studied Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at the University of Oxford, then did further study in economics at the Stockholm School of Economics and at the University of Pennsylvania. He also has a masters in finance from Bocconi University. Before joining Caixabank Research, David worked as a trainee and then as a research analyst at the European Central Bank. He is particularly interested in macroeconomics, political economy, and behavioral finance.
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The good growth data for the Spanish economy in the final stretch of 2024 lead us to revise upwards our GDP growth forecast for 2025. However, the greater likelihood of tariff tensions between the US and the EU invites us to remain cautious. In this regard, we expect the economy to grow by 2.5% in 2025, above the 2.3% we were previously predicting, albeit somewhat below the revision we could have made in the absence of this uncertainty factor.
We explore some of the pension reforms implemented in other countries which, according to the economic literature and various international organisations, have best managed to navigate the uncertainty involved in ensuring the sustainability of the pension system.
The ageing of the population will have a major impact on the public finances of advanced economies. The mechanism is well known: the ageing of the population and the consequent increase in dependency ratios can reduce tax revenues and increase public spending substantially. The main message of this article is that demographics will exert intense upward pressure on the public finances in Spain and Europe.
The first cohort of baby boomers turns 65 in 2023 and in the coming years this entire generation will retire en masse. In this article, we will assess the state in which the baby boom generation is approaching retirement in Spain, both from a financial perspective and in terms of their emotional state and their health.
The euro area reached the ECB’s inflation target in 2025. Headline inflation fell to 2.1% for the year as a whole and closed at 1.9% in December, while most agents’ expectations also place it at 2% in the medium term. How has this final disinflation towards the 2% target played out? Which products and countries have contributed the most? What inertia remains?
Between the 2nd and 5th of August, the financial markets experienced their most turbulent sessions in years, triggered by hasty fears of a US recession and an unexpected decision by the Bank of Japan that caused a spike in volatility. Since then the markets have turned a page, rendering those declines of early August no more than a scare and restating the soft-landing scenario as being the most likely.
In the US, two major economic investment and modernisation plans have been launched in recent years which represent a very different model from the European one, with a more protectionist approach. The transformative efforts in energy and technology did not arise from the need to boost the economy after COVID, as was the case in the euro area with the European NGEU funds, but rather from the need to strengthen the US’ autonomy and strategic position.
The severe deterioration in the public finances as a result of the pandemic has reopened the debate about the need to reform EU fiscal rules.
Digital technologies permeate the debate on the future of the economy. Monetary policy and its main vehicle, money, are no exception. More and more products are sold over the internet and cash is used less and less. This new digital economy creates new demands on the financial sector and digital money emerges as a new means of payment that appeals to consumers. How does all this affect monetary policy? What can central banks do (and what are they doing) about it?
The pandemic's economic impact has been considerable and widespread but it has not affected all regions equally. We analyse the impact of the different degrees of lockdown on the most vulnerable groups and the role played by the public sector in alleviating this.
The neutral interest rate is a key indicator for the orientation of monetary policy, the evolution of the financial markets and, in general, the formation of economic agents’ expectations. We delve into its definition and the level at which it stands today.
The Spanish economy successfully navigated the trade and geopolitical tensions affecting the global environment in 2025, achieving growth of 2.8%. This figure clearly surpasses both our forecast at the start of year, which was 2.3%, and the euro area’s growth, which stood at 1.5%. This GDP growth was driven by the momentum of domestic demand, which offset the deterioration of external demand resulting from the surge in imports.
The Spanish economy is growing at a good pace – more so than expected – and this leads us here at CaixaBank Research to revise our growth forecasts for 2025 upwards from 2.3% to 2.5%. Despite the good news, the focus is not on the improvement in the forecasts, but rather on the uncertainty that surrounds them.
One of the hot economic topics of today is the impact that a tightening of the financial conditions will have on the cost of Spanish public debt. Since the beginning of the year, we have witnessed a rebound in euro area sovereign yields and in risk premiums of the periphery, including that of Spain. Thus, the question arises as to how sensitive the general government’s cost of financing will be to a changing and highly uncertain macro-financial environment.
We analyse the changes that have occurred in the flow of departures from the Spanish labour market in recent years, and the effect of the entry into force of the latest labour reform.
Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) has been a key driver in the US stock market rally of recent months, helping the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record gains for the third consecutive year in 2025. Part of this expansion was explained by increased earnings, although the S&P 500 has recorded greater growth relative to these profits. In this rally, various analysts and investors have seen reminiscences of events from the year 2000 during the dot-com boom, sparking a debate about whether or not we are in a bubble. Although answering this question in real time is like trying to untie a Gordian knot by hand, in this article we analyse how the S&P 500 today compares with that of the dot-com bubble, and how feasible the expectations underpinning current stock market valuations are.