In Spain, exports of goods to the US accounted for 4.9% of total exports in 2023 and 1.25% of GDP. As we have seen in the previous article, Spain’s exposure to the United States is relatively low overall, although there are significant disparities between sectors. The tariffs currently applied by the United States on Spanish exports vary considerably according to the product in question.
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Is belonging to the middle class an ambition? What is the quality of life of the middle class like? How has it evolved in recent decades? And how will it evolve in the future? Are middle-class people satisfied with their lives? All these questions are very important, but before addressing them, we must first answer the question, who is the middle class?
Meeting climate targets depends heavily on public and private investment and their effects on the development of new technologies. Therefore, much of the economic momentum since COVID has focused on encouraging this ecological transition. In this article, we explore how the US government and, above all, the European Union and its Member States are incentivising it.
The conflict now widely referred to as the Third Gulf War has caused the largest disruption on record in the global energy market. The main point of tension is the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime route through which around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes. With the strait effectively closed, a large share of the region’s energy production is blocked. Energy markets reflected this scenario: the price of oil hovered around 100 dollars per barrel in the final weeks of March, driven by supply disruptions, attacks on tankers and damage to critical energy infrastructure.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the conflict has driven up the oil price to around 100 dollars per barrel in recent months, while the reduction in inventories has helped absorb part of the energy shock. The indicators suggest that the energy market will remain strained and that geopolitical risk will continue to apply upward pressure on prices.
The saving capacity of households is being reduced due to the rise in inflation. Nevertheless, the level of savings in 2021 was still high.
One of the big questions of the moment is whether the current rise in prices will spread to wages. To answer it, we analyse current wage dynamics in the euro area and what path they might follow in the future.
The recovery of economic activity in the area is proving to be uneven: while spending by residents has quickly normalised, commercial activity is progressing at a slower pace, with a significant number of business establishments still inactive. In addition, the impact has varied widely depending on the municipality, the level of household income and the size of the business in question.
The November activity indicators point to a very positive Q4 for the Spanish economy, while inflation stabilises at still somewhat high levels and the house price rally shows no sign of easing. The current account surplus is reduced by the strength of imports, as is the public deficit compared to last year.
The figures for US GDP in Q1 reveal a contrast between the strength of domestic demand and trade flows that were anticipating the introduction of tariffs, while the euro area has shown accelerated growth. However, this boost could soon run out of steam: the tariffs and their consequences will begin to have a negative impact. For now, there are no clear signs of a slowdown in trade flows, but with uncertainty at peak levels, the global economy is expected to enter into a slowdown, with more risks to the downside and more questions than answers.
November was dominated by a sharp upturn in volatility in the stock markets, amid doubts about the potential exuberance of AI investments in the US and the high valuations of the big tech firms. Sentiment recovered towards the end of the month, with the expectation that the Fed could continue its rate cuts in December, but concern shifted to Japan in the sovereign debt markets.
Globofriction captures one of the most characteristic features of the current era: simultaneous attraction and repulsion between economic blocs. On the one hand, they are competing for technological leadership, aware that the associated benefits go far beyond those currently gained by the companies leading innovation. Historically, countries that have led an economic revolution have ended up consolidating themselves as global powers in the following decades. On the other hand, economic blocs remain deeply intertwined by trade and financial interdependencies. This is the force of globalisation, the benefits of which are well known and remain very present.
José Antonio is a data scientist in the Department of Strategic Planning. He holds a degree from the Polytechnic University of Catalonia, where he was part of the second ever intake of the degree in Data Science and Engineering, and he is participating in the first edition of CaixaBank’s Data Talent programme. Prior to joining the bank, and in conjunction with his university studies in Barcelona and Stockholm, he co-founded a tech start-up with two partners, where he complemented his education in technology with a well-rounded and comprehensive view of the business world.
David is an Economist in the Spanish Economics Department. He studied Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at the University of Oxford, then did further study in economics at the Stockholm School of Economics and at the University of Pennsylvania. He also has a masters in finance from Bocconi University. Before joining Caixabank Research, David worked as a trainee and then as a research analyst at the European Central Bank. He is particularly interested in macroeconomics, political economy, and behavioral finance.
The support of economic policies, coupled with the expectation of economic recovery in 2021, has been key to explaining the markets' performance in 2020. As a result, future developments in the pandemic, the economy's capacity to recover and the protection afforded to businesses by such policies will continue to set the tone for the financial markets in 2021.
Between the 2nd and 5th of August, the financial markets experienced their most turbulent sessions in years, triggered by hasty fears of a US recession and an unexpected decision by the Bank of Japan that caused a spike in volatility. Since then the markets have turned a page, rendering those declines of early August no more than a scare and restating the soft-landing scenario as being the most likely.
The pandemic's economic impact has been considerable and widespread but it has not affected all regions equally. We analyse the impact of the different degrees of lockdown on the most vulnerable groups and the role played by the public sector in alleviating this.
Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) has been a key driver in the US stock market rally of recent months, helping the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record gains for the third consecutive year in 2025. Part of this expansion was explained by increased earnings, although the S&P 500 has recorded greater growth relative to these profits. In this rally, various analysts and investors have seen reminiscences of events from the year 2000 during the dot-com boom, sparking a debate about whether or not we are in a bubble. Although answering this question in real time is like trying to untie a Gordian knot by hand, in this article we analyse how the S&P 500 today compares with that of the dot-com bubble, and how feasible the expectations underpinning current stock market valuations are.
Since the outbreak of the pandemic, household consumption has grown by an average of 2.0% annually in real terms, almost in line with its historical rate and the growth of the overall economy. The consumption of durable goods, in contrast, has grown at double that rate: 4.0% annually.
The Spanish economy successfully navigated the trade and geopolitical tensions affecting the global environment in 2025, achieving growth of 2.8%. This figure clearly surpasses both our forecast at the start of year, which was 2.3%, and the euro area’s growth, which stood at 1.5%. This GDP growth was driven by the momentum of domestic demand, which offset the deterioration of external demand resulting from the surge in imports.