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One of the factors that could limit the speed of the economic recovery in Spain is the mismatch that is beginning to become apparent in the labour market. New unfilled job offers have been growing significantly since late 2020, and in Q2 2021 there were around 120,000, the highest figure in the last decade.

The European Commission has already opened a public consultation to relaunch the debate on the reform of the economic governance framework. The requirements state that the sustainability of the public finances must be assured without jeopardising the economic recovery, and that the rules must be simple and their application transparent. 

The most visible and immediate effect of the conflict has been on inflation, while the labour market shows a slower response to the shocks. The only area where the conflict has had a positive impact from a macroeconomic perspective is the tourism sector.

With inflation rates above 8% in the last six months, the Fed has embarked on an accelerated cycle of interest rate hikes. Prices began to rise in early 2021, and while for a few months most analysts were anticipating a transitory rebound as a result of the reopening of the economy in the wake of the pandemic, the fact is that the persistent rise in prices caught us all by surprise. In this Focus we analyse the pattern in the various inflation measures and their short-term outlook.

Although the savings rate in the US today is well below pre-pandemic levels, the savings accumulated during 2020 and 2021 due to the mobility restrictions and fiscal stimulus measures could continue to favour consumption in the remainder of 2022 and in 2023.

Beyond the aggregate growth data and the reading of the short-term indicators, we must continue to recall that the quality of growth is just as important as its quantity, if not more so.

The risk map is demanding and, in addition to the prevalence of geopolitical disruptions, the financial markets have shown sensitivity to the promises, doubts and transformations of artificial intelligence (AI) and to the sustainability of public debt.

CaixaBank Research’s forecast scenario for the Spanish economy, which was finalised before the outbreak of the war in Iran, anticipates dynamic growth in 2026, albeit more moderate than that of recent years. Domestic demand, and especially private consumption and investment, began the year with sufficient momentum to enjoy strong growth and continue leading the recovery. However, the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East opens a new chapter of global economic and political uncertainty.

In this article, we delve into the figures of the tourism sector in order to paint a more detailed picture of its recovery trajectory, which identifies the major trends and provides clues as to what we can expect for the remainder of the year.

In an attempt to correct these market dysfunctions, there have been several reforms in recent decades, the most recent of which was approved by the government cabinet on 28 December and is being voted on today in Congress. This reform is also one of the milestones committed to with the EU as part of the RTRP, and its implementation is a requirement in order to access the European NGEU funds.

We analyse the stress in the labour market of the largest economy in the world: are there more companies wanting to hire or fewer workers? Most importantly, how can job supply and demand be rebalanced?

The indicators that have been published during the opening months of the year paint a picture of a buoyant Spanish economy in Q1 2025, albeit with a slightly less vigorous growth rate than in the previous quarter.

The NGEU funds and the national investment programmes in Germany and France are the result of a long process of changes in the big economic blocs, accelerated by COVID and the war in Ukraine. These efforts seek to redefine and adapt production models to the energy transition and digitalisation in a context of uncertainty and new geopolitical dynamics.

Between the end of September and the end of February, the US dollar depreciated by 6% in effective nominal terms and by 10% against the euro, trading at close to 1.07, a level not seen for almost a year. We explore what lies behind this change of trend and whether it is likely to continue.

In a month in which, unfortunately, geopolitical risk is once again taking centre stage, in the Dossier on the 2024 Outlook we review the key themes and forecasts for next year. The first theme is precisely how difficult it will be to recover a balance in the macroeconomy, in a world in which geopolitical instability has reached levels not seen in many decades.

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, American households have been much more pessimistic than one would expect given the current state of the US economy. Why is this? Is the same thing happening in Europe?

Following the rise in the cost of energy imports in 2022, the recovery of the foreign sector was particularly rapid in 2023 and the four largest economies in the euro area have improved their current account balances, although only Spain has managed to surpass the 2019 figure.

The global economy continues to grow at different speeds in Q2. In the US, the labour market is beginning to show signs of moderation while inflation continues its slow downward trickle; Germany’s weakness conditions the euro area as a whole, and China’s economy faces a modest outlook for Q3.

After a much better-than-expected start to the year, the strength of the global economy will be tested once again in the coming months. The flexibility and coordination of economic policy in the face of these new challenges will determine the capacity of the current business cycle to overcome them.

We examine the current state and the particularities of the commercial real estate sector in the United States, and the extent of the banking sector’s exposure, following the collapse in the share price of New York Community Bancorp.