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On November 5th, the United States will be called to the polls in what will likely end up being a rematch between Biden and Trump for the country’s presidency. In this article we offer some context to shed light on the election race and we set out the effects it may have on the financial markets and the Federal Reserve.

After a 2025 marked by uncertainty around trade policy, in 2026, the conflict in Iran has emerged as the main source of risk for the global economy. We analyse the exposure channels of Spain’s various economic sectors to this shock. We focus on four transmission channels: the rising cost of fossil fuels, global trade tensions, direct supply risks stemming from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential tightening of financial conditions.

One of the factors that could limit the speed of the economic recovery in Spain is the mismatch that is beginning to become apparent in the labour market. New unfilled job offers have been growing significantly since late 2020, and in Q2 2021 there were around 120,000, the highest figure in the last decade.

In the last decade, the debate regarding the configuration and consequences of globalisation has gained prominence, with numerous voices advocating a rethink to either limit, reverse or reconfigure it. In this and the following article we analyse the course of these debates and the health of globalisation.

The international economy showed remarkable resilience in 2024 and the available data suggest that world GDP may have grown slightly above 3%. The tailwinds that supported economic activity will likely continue to blow in 2025, albeit with less strength and in the face of significant challenges.

The indicators that have been published during the opening months of the year paint a picture of a buoyant Spanish economy in Q1 2025, albeit with a slightly less vigorous growth rate than in the previous quarter.

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, American households have been much more pessimistic than one would expect given the current state of the US economy. Why is this? Is the same thing happening in Europe?

The NGEU funds and the national investment programmes in Germany and France are the result of a long process of changes in the big economic blocs, accelerated by COVID and the war in Ukraine. These efforts seek to redefine and adapt production models to the energy transition and digitalisation in a context of uncertainty and new geopolitical dynamics.

In an attempt to correct these market dysfunctions, there have been several reforms in recent decades, the most recent of which was approved by the government cabinet on 28 December and is being voted on today in Congress. This reform is also one of the milestones committed to with the EU as part of the RTRP, and its implementation is a requirement in order to access the European NGEU funds.

After a much better-than-expected start to the year, the strength of the global economy will be tested once again in the coming months. The flexibility and coordination of economic policy in the face of these new challenges will determine the capacity of the current business cycle to overcome them.

Beyond the number of visitors, the main challenge for the tourism sector is to continue growing in a sustainable and balanced manner. To this end, it is important to pay attention to other areas of a structural nature, which allow us to make a good diagnosis of the sector’s strengths, in order to continue developing them, as well as the weaknesses that must be addressed in order to make this growth sustainable in the long term. 

Although the savings rate in the US today is well below pre-pandemic levels, the savings accumulated during 2020 and 2021 due to the mobility restrictions and fiscal stimulus measures could continue to favour consumption in the remainder of 2022 and in 2023.

The upturn in debt yields on a global scale has put the fiscal situation back in the spotlight. The case of Europe is of particular interest, since in 2024 the fiscal rules will be reinstated after having been suspended since 2019 due to the pandemic and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. What the new fiscal framework proposes? Is the proposed plan more or less strict than the current one?

Beyond the aggregate growth data and the reading of the short-term indicators, we must continue to recall that the quality of growth is just as important as its quantity, if not more so.

In this article, we delve into the figures of the tourism sector in order to paint a more detailed picture of its recovery trajectory, which identifies the major trends and provides clues as to what we can expect for the remainder of the year.

The European Commission has already opened a public consultation to relaunch the debate on the reform of the economic governance framework. The requirements state that the sustainability of the public finances must be assured without jeopardising the economic recovery, and that the rules must be simple and their application transparent. 

It has been almost four months since our last update to the macroeconomic scenario. During these months, the Spanish economy has shown a more resilient tone than expected. Furthermore, the normalisation of gas prices, although incomplete, has been confirmed and the peak in reference interest rates is now in sight. Faced with all these changes, we have updated our macro forecast scenario.

We delve into the REPowerEU plan, approved in May by the European Commission, and its measures to accelerate the energy transition envisaged in the Green Deal and the Fit for 55 package.

The global economy continues to grow at different speeds in Q2. In the US, the labour market is beginning to show signs of moderation while inflation continues its slow downward trickle; Germany’s weakness conditions the euro area as a whole, and China’s economy faces a modest outlook for Q3.

The measures imposed in Europe to contain the COVID-19 have led to a marked increase in the savings of European households. Will European households spend these forced savings when the restrictions are lifted? At what speed? How will this impact economic growth?