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The European Commission has already opened a public consultation to relaunch the debate on the reform of the economic governance framework. The requirements state that the sustainability of the public finances must be assured without jeopardising the economic recovery, and that the rules must be simple and their application transparent. 

We examine the current state and the particularities of the commercial real estate sector in the United States, and the extent of the banking sector’s exposure, following the collapse in the share price of New York Community Bancorp.

Following the rise in the cost of energy imports in 2022, the recovery of the foreign sector was particularly rapid in 2023 and the four largest economies in the euro area have improved their current account balances, although only Spain has managed to surpass the 2019 figure.

Employment has enjoyed a strong recovery in Spain since the pandemic. Between 2019 and the first three quarters of 2025, the number of people in employment grew by 11.9%. In addition, the sectoral distribution of this boom differs from the expansionary cycle of 2014-2019. Sectors such as healthcare, professional and scientific activities, and technology have gained prominence, while manufacturing and traditionally job-intensive areas such as trade, hospitality and agriculture have played a smaller role. These dynamics raise a key question: is the employment created in this phase of higher quality than in previous expansions? To answer this question, we have analysed three key aspects: workers’ qualifications, the trend in temporary employment – as an indicator of stability – and real wages.

In recent years, the discussion around critical commodities has emerged as a key element in the redefining of economic relations at a global level, in an environment marked by persistent geopolitical tensions. So-called critical minerals – such as rare earths, copper, or lithium – are key inputs for global industry and, specifically, for those sectors most closely linked to the green and digital transition. The demand for these commodities has grown sharply in recent years, as has the supply, driven by the largest global producers of many of these minerals, such as China, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

The BRI has become a key element for China’s global positioning. Faced with weakened domestic demand and chronic overcapacity, the initiative has facilitated the opening up of new markets, the diversification of export destinations, the dominance of value chains for critical commodities that are essential for its industrial development, and the reduction of dependence on geo-economic rivals, a factor that has gained particular importance in recent years.

On November 5th, the United States will be called to the polls in what will likely end up being a rematch between Biden and Trump for the country’s presidency. In this article we offer some context to shed light on the election race and we set out the effects it may have on the financial markets and the Federal Reserve.

Having laid out the complex trade relationship between the United States and China, we continue to analyse the phenomenon of de-risking among the major economic powers, focusing on the European Union.

CaixaBank Research’s forecast scenario for the Spanish economy, which was finalised before the outbreak of the war in Iran, anticipates dynamic growth in 2026, albeit more moderate than that of recent years. Domestic demand, and especially private consumption and investment, began the year with sufficient momentum to enjoy strong growth and continue leading the recovery. However, the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East opens a new chapter of global economic and political uncertainty.

The risk map is demanding and, in addition to the prevalence of geopolitical disruptions, the financial markets have shown sensitivity to the promises, doubts and transformations of artificial intelligence (AI) and to the sustainability of public debt.

The economic shock of the war in Ukraine is having differing negative effects on the various sectors of the Spanish economy depending on their energy use, their exposure to certain global supply chains and their trade ties with the region.

In a context of unusually high inflation, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have stepped up and are in the midst of the monetary policy normalisation process, albeit at different rates.

The European Central Bank is reviewing the operating framework with which it implements interest rates. In this article we examine the main question marks in the process.

Global supply chains have been shaken once again following the joint US and Israeli attack on Iran and the subsequent spread of the conflict to other countries in the Middle East. Subject to uncertainty over the shock’s severity and duration, this episode is shaping up to be the greatest disruption to international trade since COVID-19.

This article confirms, through the use of anonymised high-frequency internal data, how the interest rate hikes and cuts between 2022 and 2025 have affected Spaniards’ consumption. The results show that the monetary policy of the last cycle has clearly influenced household consumption in Spain, albeit with moderate intensity, and that interest rate cuts have had a tangible impact in boosting spending among households with variable-rate mortgages.

The biggest expansionary deployment from monetary policy in history is still in force today, and the recent shift in strategy by the world’s two major central banks – which let us not forget was intended to encourage an increase in inflation expectations – is currently in its trial phase.

In a month in which, unfortunately, geopolitical risk is once again taking centre stage, in the Dossier on the 2024 Outlook we review the key themes and forecasts for next year. The first theme is precisely how difficult it will be to recover a balance in the macroeconomy, in a world in which geopolitical instability has reached levels not seen in many decades.

The upturn in debt yields on a global scale has put the fiscal situation back in the spotlight. The case of Europe is of particular interest, since in 2024 the fiscal rules will be reinstated after having been suspended since 2019 due to the pandemic and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. What the new fiscal framework proposes? Is the proposed plan more or less strict than the current one?

After a 2025 marked by uncertainty around trade policy, in 2026, the conflict in Iran has emerged as the main source of risk for the global economy. We analyse the exposure channels of Spain’s various economic sectors to this shock. We focus on four transmission channels: the rising cost of fossil fuels, global trade tensions, direct supply risks stemming from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential tightening of financial conditions.

In the last decade, the debate regarding the configuration and consequences of globalisation has gained prominence, with numerous voices advocating a rethink to either limit, reverse or reconfigure it. In this and the following article we analyse the course of these debates and the health of globalisation.