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The economic impact of the war with Iran is yet to be written. If a deal is reached in the short term and the movement of goods through the Strait of Hormuz resumes relatively quickly, the macroeconomic effect could be limited. Amid the recent emphasis on the downside risks, it is important not to lose sight of this scenario. Not only is it plausible, but it could be the most likely.

We examine the dynamics that have led to the gold rally, as well as the factors that influence the gold price in both the long and the short term, most notably the role central banks play in purchases of this precious metal.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has traits of a general-purpose technology: applications in many sectors, rapid improvement of the technology itself and a catalyst for complementary innovations. This has already happened with technologies such as electricity and the internet. Even so, having high potential does not necessarily mean an immediate or uniform macro impact. The final magnitude of AI's impact will depend on the speed of its adoption and the ability of firms to reorganise processes. This article examines how AI could affect productivity growth and what it means for the labour market.

To take the pulse of the economy, we usually look at GDP growth. From this perspective, the latest dynamics in the Spanish economy are turning out to be somewhat better than expected. However, the factors on which the growth is supported are just as important, if not more so.

In addition to the uncertainty over the economic impact of the tariffs and the outcome of the trade negotiations, legal doubts have now arisen over the measures adopted by Trump since February. 

We disaggregate job creation among the main branches of economic activity in order to assess whether the improvement in the labour market is widespread or is concentrated in certain sectors and is due to specific factors.

After almost two years raising interest rates, in 2023 the major central banks reached the peak and adjusted their strategy: instead of raising official rates further, the monetary tightening was going to be implemented by keeping rates at that peak for longer. However, by the autumn the financial markets were already questioning this narrative. Why?

Between 2013 and 2019, the recovery that followed the financial and sovereign debt crises enabled gradual but sustained improvements in household purchasing power, supported by an improvement in employment and a contained inflation environment. The pandemic disrupted this dynamic, and while nominal income and the labour market showed resilience, the inflation shock exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine eroded purchasing power and strained households’ well-being, hitting low-income households particularly hard. In this context, real actual individual consumption per capita – a broad indicator of material well-being that includes both private expenditure and individual goods and services provided by the public sector – allows us to analyse how the living conditions of European households have evolved before and after the pandemic, as well as the role of public redistribution.

That being the case, for the moment, and while we wait for events to unfold, it seems that our economy ought to weather this period of uncertainty better than our main trading partners.

The main indicators concerning the Spanish economy have improved slightly during the last month. This alleviates fears of a sharp decline in economic activity and, indeed, opens the door to the possibility of the year ending without a contraction in GDP.

With disinflation on track and some signs of a slowdown in economic activity and a cooling of the labour market, monetary policy is shifting gears and starting to dial back the monetary tightening of the past years: going from restrictive to neutral. The ECB and the Fed, along with other major central banks, have initiated this easing process with interest rate cuts, and they are expected to continue doing so in 2025. From there, we will seek to clarify the factors that will guide this new phase of monetary policy.

The Spanish household savings rate has rebounded for the first time since the pandemic, thanks to a rise in gross disposable income and a fall in inflation, which has moderated the growth in nominal household spending. 

In March, the bulk of the published indicators reiterated a picture of reduced weakness in the economic activity figures and greater inertia in core price pressures. However, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank triggered an episode of financial turbulence and highlighted that the rapid and sharp rate hikes by the central banks are leading to tighter financial conditions.

In March, the markets experienced their third big movement so far this year. Whereas January was marked by a slowdown in inflation and renewed risk appetite, which was reversed in February due to the persistence of the cycle and prices, in March the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US triggered a brief but intense episode of panic.