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For 2022 as a whole, the euro area’s trade balance in goods registered a deficit of around 60 billion euros (–0.5% of GDP vs. +2.3% in 2021). This was entirely due to the widening of the deficit in the energy balance, which doubled to exceed 500 billion euros, or around 4.5% of GDP.

According to the new estimate produced by the National Statistics Institute, GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter
in Q1 2024, 0.1 pps more than originally estimated. Behind this good performance lie several key elements: the strength of the labour market, the boost provided by dynamic immigration flows and the good data for international tourism, which have once again exceeded expectations.

We analyse the origin of the government deficit in the United States (at 6.3% of GDP, it is one of the highest among advanced countries), its impact on the American economy and the medium-term outlook for the sustainability of public debt. 

The tourism sector is reaching high levels of utilisation of its productive capacity, so we can expect the pace of growth to gradually moderate. However, Spain’s economy has other levers at its disposal.

In 2021, supply problems have dominated the financial headlines. One of the most prominent problems has been the lack of chips, or semiconductors, which has caused many headaches across a range of sectors, including the automotive industry that is so key to European industry. In the face of increased structural demand for technological goods, is the supply ready for it?

In 2020, global trade in high-tech goods fell by just 1%. This resilience, combined with the increase registered in 2021, leads us to pose the following question: are we facing a change of trend in the consumption patterns of technological goods or, on the contrary, will the return to «social normality» revive the pre-pandemic patterns?

The string of supply and demand shocks triggered by the announcements of recent weeks will alter the balances of growth and inflation, while the expectations variable will modulate the effects that will be transmitted through the trade and financial channels. 

The start of 2026 has brought volatility and mixed dynamics reflecting the markets' sensitivity to geopolitical and technological shifts. The threat of a military conflict between the US and Iran had already heightened the perception of risk before the bombings materialised and triggered a sharp increase in stress and volatility, especially in commodity markets.

The Spanish economy continues to show greater buoyancy than had been expected at the start of the year, thanks above all to the momentum of the tertiary sector, especially tourism-related activities, as well as the strength of job creation. Over the coming quarters supporting factors will emerge, such as a less restrictive monetary policy, an easing of inflationary tensions and an expected acceleration in the execution of the European NGEU funds.

This summer’s hot topic, at least economically speaking, has been the sharp rise in the price of gas. All the indicators suggest that over the coming months we will have substantially higher prices than those predicted before we went on holiday, and this will undermine the Spanish economy’s recovery process.

In the context of the European elections of 9 June, we bring forward the publication of the Dossier from June’s Monthly Report in order to contribute to the debate on the strengths and weaknesses of the Single Market at an economic level and some of the challenges that lie ahead: competitiveness, the impact of artificial intelligence, productivity and the capital markets union.

To date, Spain has already complied with 70% of the reforms set out in the Plan, but only with 15% of the investments, partly because of the Plan’s very nature, which places more emphasis on the reforms in the first few years, and partly due to some initial delays in the implementation.

The intensification of inflationary pressures, a phenomenon aggravated by the war in Ukraine, has led to a sharp shift in the direction of monetary policy. Mass bond purchases by the central banks are being left behind, while official rates are already being ratcheted up. In the financial markets, this change has been reflected in a sharp rise in sovereign debt yields – a trend which, due to their role as a benchmark, has also affected other financial assets.

Fiscal activism is not declining in the US. Following the vast disbursements of 2020 and 2021, fiscal activity is now focusing on negotiations regarding the new stimulus packages proposed by the Biden administration: The American Jobs Plan (AJP, which revolves around infrastructure) and The American Family Plan (AFP, with a social focus). But what can we expect to come out of these negotiations?

Since the end of the pandemic, the catering industry in Spain has enjoyed a rapid recovery, supported by the dynamism of tourism and the normalisation of consumption. Revenues have grown and employment has reached historic highs, consolidating its role as one of the pillars of the services sector. Yes despite this strong performance, the sector still faces a challenge: its high business turnover, which limits the stability and maturity of the productive fabric.

The financial markets broadly stabilised during the month of April, as investors' radar moved away from the financial turmoil of March to focus on the growth and inflation outlook, with the publication of GDP data for Q1 2023 and the corporate earnings season.

In the last five years, home prices in Portugal have risen by around 63%. Similarly, the number of home sales has amassed 32% growth in the last five years. In this article, we will analyse the impact of this housing market boom on municipal tax revenues related to housing.