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The tourism sector is reaching high levels of utilisation of its productive capacity, so we can expect the pace of growth to gradually moderate. However, Spain’s economy has other levers at its disposal.

According to the new estimate produced by the National Statistics Institute, GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter
in Q1 2024, 0.1 pps more than originally estimated. Behind this good performance lie several key elements: the strength of the labour market, the boost provided by dynamic immigration flows and the good data for international tourism, which have once again exceeded expectations.

In the context of our revision of the international economic outlook, the aim of this article is to clarify, on the one hand, the US’ current tariff policy and, on the other, to summarise the response from its main trading partners and the state of the ongoing negotiations.

In addition to the uncertainty over the economic impact of the tariffs and the outcome of the trade negotiations, legal doubts have now arisen over the measures adopted by Trump since February. 

We expand on the assessment of the economic impact of the blackout on 28 April in Spain by taking a cross-section by sector and autonomous community region, based on the analysis of internal CaixaBank data.

If Europe only moves forward in times of crisis, as has become apparent in the last 15 years, then the current opportunity is unequalled, given the scale of the challenges in the international geopolitical context. The alternative is a return of the Hamlet-like avatar that has represented the EU many times throughout its history.

The goal has been identified and diagnosed for some time, but it is difficult to achieve. It requires patience, resources, both public and private, and determination and cooperation among the various institutions and agents involved, precisely because the challenge is so great. 

The Spanish economy continues to show greater buoyancy than had been expected at the start of the year, thanks above all to the momentum of the tertiary sector, especially tourism-related activities, as well as the strength of job creation. Over the coming quarters supporting factors will emerge, such as a less restrictive monetary policy, an easing of inflationary tensions and an expected acceleration in the execution of the European NGEU funds.

The new focus of concern in the already complex global economic scenario is the health of public finances. In the case of Spain, the two key levers in order for public debt to continue to fall are the general government deficit and economic growth.

In the context of the European elections of 9 June, we bring forward the publication of the Dossier from June’s Monthly Report in order to contribute to the debate on the strengths and weaknesses of the Single Market at an economic level and some of the challenges that lie ahead: competitiveness, the impact of artificial intelligence, productivity and the capital markets union.

The summer of 2025 – one of relative calm in the financial markets despite the volatility of the macroeconomic environment – has brought with it a change of gear between the Fed and the ECB. While France is emerging as a new source of instability, in the US sovereign rates are adjusting to monetary policy expectations, but they do not seem to fear institutional risk. The stock markets enjoy another month of gains, and among commodities, crude oil remains stable and gold reaches a new high. 

The household savings rate has risen in Spain to even exceed the level reached in the years prior to the pandemic thanks to the significant growth of disposable income. Where are these increased savings being allocated and what are the consequences?

We conclude the Dossier «An analysis of European productivity» by identifying the factors that hinder productivity growth in the Spanish economy, and those that could drive it, focusing on the evolution of productivity in the various autonomous community regions and on their defining traits relative to other European regions.

After almost two years raising interest rates, in 2023 the major central banks reached the peak and adjusted their strategy: instead of raising official rates further, the monetary tightening was going to be implemented by keeping rates at that peak for longer. However, by the autumn the financial markets were already questioning this narrative. Why?

This analysis examines the recent evolution of the European residential market and explores differences between countries in a context where housing has become the main concern among Europeans. What we see is a cycle marked by successive shocks and an insufficient supply, which is now emerging as the main source of tension.

Since the end of the pandemic, the catering industry in Spain has enjoyed a rapid recovery, supported by the dynamism of tourism and the normalisation of consumption. Revenues have grown and employment has reached historic highs, consolidating its role as one of the pillars of the services sector. Yes despite this strong performance, the sector still faces a challenge: its high business turnover, which limits the stability and maturity of the productive fabric.

The start of 2026 has brought volatility and mixed dynamics reflecting the markets' sensitivity to geopolitical and technological shifts. The threat of a military conflict between the US and Iran had already heightened the perception of risk before the bombings materialised and triggered a sharp increase in stress and volatility, especially in commodity markets.

We continue to analyse the phenomenon of de-risking among the major economic powers in a new instalment of articles dedicated to international trade and geopolitics. In this first article, we will focus on the United States and China, and in a second edition, on the European Union.

We analyse the origin of the government deficit in the United States (at 6.3% of GDP, it is one of the highest among advanced countries), its impact on the American economy and the medium-term outlook for the sustainability of public debt.