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With disinflation on track and some signs of a slowdown in economic activity and a cooling of the labour market, monetary policy is shifting gears and starting to dial back the monetary tightening of the past years: going from restrictive to neutral. The ECB and the Fed, along with other major central banks, have initiated this easing process with interest rate cuts, and they are expected to continue doing so in 2025. From there, we will seek to clarify the factors that will guide this new phase of monetary policy.

We examine the dynamics that have led to the gold rally, as well as the factors that influence the gold price in both the long and the short term, most notably the role central banks play in purchases of this precious metal.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has traits of a general-purpose technology: applications in many sectors, rapid improvement of the technology itself and a catalyst for complementary innovations. This has already happened with technologies such as electricity and the internet. Even so, having high potential does not necessarily mean an immediate or uniform macro impact. The final magnitude of AI's impact will depend on the speed of its adoption and the ability of firms to reorganise processes. This article examines how AI could affect productivity growth and what it means for the labour market.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops marks a turning point in the international geopolitical context since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The consequences of an event of such magnitude (a black swan in financial terminology) are still difficult to anticipate, but some of the underlying trends that have defined the behaviour of the global economy in recent decades could change.

The financial markets broadly stabilised during the month of April, as investors' radar moved away from the financial turmoil of March to focus on the growth and inflation outlook, with the publication of GDP data for Q1 2023 and the corporate earnings season.

After almost two years raising interest rates, in 2023 the major central banks reached the peak and adjusted their strategy: instead of raising official rates further, the monetary tightening was going to be implemented by keeping rates at that peak for longer. However, by the autumn the financial markets were already questioning this narrative. Why?

The US labour market is cooling down. The Fed acknowledges it and the statistics confirm it: the unemployment rate has increased 0.7 pps so far this year and in June job creation hit its lowest levels since 2021. Should we be concerned?

We analyse the economic impact of the war in Ukraine on Europe, the US and the major emerging countries.

For 2022 as a whole, the euro area’s trade balance in goods registered a deficit of around 60 billion euros (–0.5% of GDP vs. +2.3% in 2021). This was entirely due to the widening of the deficit in the energy balance, which doubled to exceed 500 billion euros, or around 4.5% of GDP.

In March, the markets experienced their third big movement so far this year. Whereas January was marked by a slowdown in inflation and renewed risk appetite, which was reversed in February due to the persistence of the cycle and prices, in March the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US triggered a brief but intense episode of panic.

In March, the bulk of the published indicators reiterated a picture of reduced weakness in the economic activity figures and greater inertia in core price pressures. However, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank triggered an episode of financial turbulence and highlighted that the rapid and sharp rate hikes by the central banks are leading to tighter financial conditions.

In the context of our revision of the international economic outlook, the aim of this article is to clarify, on the one hand, the US’ current tariff policy and, on the other, to summarise the response from its main trading partners and the state of the ongoing negotiations.

In addition to the uncertainty over the economic impact of the tariffs and the outcome of the trade negotiations, legal doubts have now arisen over the measures adopted by Trump since February. 

We expand on the assessment of the economic impact of the blackout on 28 April in Spain by taking a cross-section by sector and autonomous community region, based on the analysis of internal CaixaBank data.

The intensification of inflationary pressures, a phenomenon aggravated by the war in Ukraine, has led to a sharp shift in the direction of monetary policy. Mass bond purchases by the central banks are being left behind, while official rates are already being ratcheted up. In the financial markets, this change has been reflected in a sharp rise in sovereign debt yields – a trend which, due to their role as a benchmark, has also affected other financial assets.