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To take the pulse of the economy, we usually look at GDP growth. From this perspective, the latest dynamics in the Spanish economy are turning out to be somewhat better than expected. However, the factors on which the growth is supported are just as important, if not more so.

The new focus of concern in the already complex global economic scenario is the health of public finances. In the case of Spain, the two key levers in order for public debt to continue to fall are the general government deficit and economic growth.

In the last five years, home prices in Portugal have risen by around 63%. Similarly, the number of home sales has amassed 32% growth in the last five years. In this article, we will analyse the impact of this housing market boom on municipal tax revenues related to housing.

What does the quantitative tightening (QT) which the Fed is going to carry out in its monetary-policy normalisation process involve? How could it impact the financial markets?

The start of 2026 has brought volatility and mixed dynamics reflecting the markets' sensitivity to geopolitical and technological shifts. The threat of a military conflict between the US and Iran had already heightened the perception of risk before the bombings materialised and triggered a sharp increase in stress and volatility, especially in commodity markets.

The tourism sector is proving to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the rapid recovery in international mobility. The sectoral indicators paint a very positive picture for the remainder of 2022, meaning it can act as a driver for the Spanish economy at a time when many other sectors are enduring a difficult context.

Since the end of the pandemic, the catering industry in Spain has enjoyed a rapid recovery, supported by the dynamism of tourism and the normalisation of consumption. Revenues have grown and employment has reached historic highs, consolidating its role as one of the pillars of the services sector. Yes despite this strong performance, the sector still faces a challenge: its high business turnover, which limits the stability and maturity of the productive fabric.

This is the first of two articles devoted to the analysis of investment in Spain and explores the changes that have taken place in the last decade in the composition of investment in Spain. The second article focuses on investment trends since the beginning of the pandemic, as well as the signals that can be drawn from the latest investment indicators.

Despite the positive growth data for Q4 2022, more than half of the analysts on the Bloomberg consensus panel believe that in 2023 we will see a fall in US GDP for two consecutive quarters. Also, the probability they assign to a recession in the US in the next 12 months is around 70% and the sovereign yield curve has been inverted in the section spanning from three months, an almost infallible predictor of recession. What arguments support this pessimistic view of a hard landing for US economic activity? Are there any reasons to think it is possible to avoid a recession and make a soft landing?

The summer of 2025 – one of relative calm in the financial markets despite the volatility of the macroeconomic environment – has brought with it a change of gear between the Fed and the ECB. While France is emerging as a new source of instability, in the US sovereign rates are adjusting to monetary policy expectations, but they do not seem to fear institutional risk. The stock markets enjoy another month of gains, and among commodities, crude oil remains stable and gold reaches a new high. 

This analysis examines the recent evolution of the European residential market and explores differences between countries in a context where housing has become the main concern among Europeans. What we see is a cycle marked by successive shocks and an insufficient supply, which is now emerging as the main source of tension.

The tourism sector is reaching high levels of utilisation of its productive capacity, so we can expect the pace of growth to gradually moderate. However, Spain’s economy has other levers at its disposal.

According to the new estimate produced by the National Statistics Institute, GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter
in Q1 2024, 0.1 pps more than originally estimated. Behind this good performance lie several key elements: the strength of the labour market, the boost provided by dynamic immigration flows and the good data for international tourism, which have once again exceeded expectations.

The main indicators concerning the Spanish economy have improved slightly during the last month. This alleviates fears of a sharp decline in economic activity and, indeed, opens the door to the possibility of the year ending without a contraction in GDP.

We disaggregate job creation among the main branches of economic activity in order to assess whether the improvement in the labour market is widespread or is concentrated in certain sectors and is due to specific factors.

This summer’s hot topic, at least economically speaking, has been the sharp rise in the price of gas. All the indicators suggest that over the coming months we will have substantially higher prices than those predicted before we went on holiday, and this will undermine the Spanish economy’s recovery process.

If Europe only moves forward in times of crisis, as has become apparent in the last 15 years, then the current opportunity is unequalled, given the scale of the challenges in the international geopolitical context. The alternative is a return of the Hamlet-like avatar that has represented the EU many times throughout its history.