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Employment in Spain has experienced rapid growth in recent years. The unemployment rate has also fallen sharply, but it remains one of the highest in the euro area. Can the labour market continue to support Spain’s economic growth?

Thanks to the effectiveness of the vaccines, the economy has experienced a strong revival and life is gradually returning to a certain degree of normality. But an event on the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic can have a lasting impact on the nature of economic activity. The extent of this impact will largely depend on our confidence, ability and willingness to return to pre-crisis investment and consumption patterns.

In this article we analyse whether the savings accumulated during the pandemic are currently acting as a pushback for new consumer lending. If so, will this remain the case into next year?

In the current context, marked by the breakdown of some supply chains, to what extent can Portugal take advantage of the situation, position itself as an alternative supplier and increase the contribution from exports to GDP growth?

The uncertainty generated by Brexit is already affecting economic growth (mainly in the United Kingdom, and in particular in the form of a suspension of investment projects) and it could hinder business relations with Spain in the short term.

Markets remained affected by the supply shock in May, particularly in the euro area. In an uncertain geopolitical environment with mixed signals, markets welcomed the favourable signs of rapprochement between the US and Iran. As a result, May saw a reduction in oil prices and consequently a slight moderation in short-term inflation expectations.

In his first six weeks in the White House, President Trump has succeeded in disrupting the world order repeatedly. On the trade policy front, uncertainty will cloud the economic outlook in the short and medium term, and the risk of protectionist escalation is high.

While the direct impact of an increase of US tariffs on China may be limited, perhaps the greatest risk lies in the indirect effects of an escalation of protectionism: an old rule of international trade is that there is no such thing as an unanswered tariff.

China’s real estate sector is often described as «the most important sector in the world» because of the importance it has amassed in recent decades in the Asian giant’s growth model. We analyse how significant a role it plays in the Chinese economy and the risks of the Evergrande effect.

What has triggered the sharp rise in energy prices in Europe in the second half of 2021? Will the rally persist in the medium and long term?

We analyse how the agreement to reform the constitutional debt ceiling and boost defence spending will impact German sovereign debt and the yield on the 10-year bund.

We recap the phases of the recent inflationary cycle and analyse the evolution of intermediate costs, which are decisive for containing the triggering of second-round effects and ensuring price stability.

The spring rally was dampened by signs of persistent inflationary pressures and a tightening of the hawkish tone among the major central banks, with rates expected to be «higher for longer».

The Spanish economy continues to have the highest structural unemployment rate in the European Union, despite having managed to reduce it substantially in recent years. To curb it, improvements are needed on three fronts: greater supply and demand for employment and better matching between the two.

Trump’s tariffs deal a blow to investor risk appetite and sovereign yield curves steepen on both sides of the Atlantic, as the central banks try to navigate the tidal surge. The stock markets register high volatility and the commodities most dependent on the business cycle fall.