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The impact on the EU of a universal tariff on US imports of goods goes beyond the direct effect it will have on exporting companies, as it will also be felt indirectly across the economy as a whole and throughout European and global value chains.

What’s behind the semiconductor shortage? Is it a transitory phenomenon attributable to the pandemic or does it also reflect structural factors linked to the specific characteristics of the sector?

What has triggered the sharp rise in energy prices in Europe in the second half of 2021? Will the rally persist in the medium and long term?

In 2024, Spain’s real estate market enjoyed a remarkable recovery, with a significant increase in both house prices and sales. Factors such as the growth of gross disposable income, foreign demand and falling rates drove this trend. In this article, we unveil our forecasts for 2025 and explain why we expect this boom to continue.

The Spanish economy continues to stand out for its dynamism. In addition, behind the strength of the main indicators, there are several factors that point to the consolidation of a solid expansion cycle, which also helps us to understand the confidence that households, businesses and investors are showing.

The postponement of interest rate cut expectations that had begun in February extended to March, with investors consolidating the idea that the central banks are not in such a hurry to relax financial conditions so soon.

The outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, and more recently the war in Ukraine, has accelerated the trend of decoupling between the US and China, and Europe also appears to have joined in, albeit somewhat timidly for now. We analyse the EU’s dependence on China in order to understand whether European strategic autonomy is possible, or even desirable.

Although the trends in inequality are encouraging, we cannot declare victory just yet. Over the coming months, we will have to keep a close eye on whether the observed trend is consolidated, especially in the most vulnerable segments of the population, and adjust the support schemes accordingly.

While the direct impact of an increase of US tariffs on China may be limited, perhaps the greatest risk lies in the indirect effects of an escalation of protectionism: an old rule of international trade is that there is no such thing as an unanswered tariff.

The latest update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook highlights stable growth expectations for the global economy (GDP +3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027). Technological dynamism, particularly investment related to AI, continues to sustain economic activity, especially in the US, offsetting the adverse effects of persistent trade tensions and high geopolitical uncertainty. In this environment, the IMF anticipates a gradual slowdown in international trade (+2.6% in 2026 vs. 4.1% in 2025), and economic activity is showing uneven dynamics. 

The recovery of investment should gain traction over the coming years and, in the case of the Spanish economy, the execution of the European NGEU funds is expected to exert ever greater traction on private investment.

We describe where the Spanish housing market currently lies using the "real estate clock”, a tool which shows how house prices and sales in Spain evolve over the course of the cycle.