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Although Spain’s exports have been surprisingly strong in the current context, this good performance stretches back a long time. It began during the financial and sovereign debt crisis of a decade ago, when many Spanish companies were forced to look abroad for business opportunities in the face of weak domestic demand.

GDP maintained a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 0.2% in a Q3 marked by a pattern of steady growth.

Trump’s tariffs will not serve to reduce the trade deficit, to recover jobs in sectors in which the US has long lost its competitive advantages or to balance the fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, the price to pay is a return to a fragmented world and the destabilisation of the world economy.

As of the close of this report, military and economic pressure continues around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for the global supply of oil, gas, and derivative products. The IMF, in its April outlook report, points out that despite the strong start to 2026 globally, there is a risk of a severe energy shock if hostilities persist.

We analyse the budget deficit reduction plan set out by the government in its 2023-2026 Stability Programme, based on a gradual reduction driven by the recovery of the Spanish economy, bringing it down from 4.8% of GDP in 2022 to 3.9% in 2023 and to 2.5% by 2026.

we analyse the evolution of the middle classes in advanced countries in recent decades, focusing in particular on the trends in Spain’s middle class over the last decade.

According to the glimpse of the tax close published by the Ministry of Finance, tax revenues in 2021 were surprisingly strong and have exceeded the expectations set out in the 2021 General Government Budget, despite GDP growth for the year falling below the government’s expectations.

To date, the investments already approved as part of the Portuguese Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) amount to 12,249 million euros, compared to total planned investments of 16,644 million euros. This represents an approval rate of 74%, which in principle looks promising in terms of getting the most out of the NGEU funds that Portugal will receive up until 2026.

There are five factors that suggest that the gap between Spain’s GDP and its pre-pandemic trajectory will steadily close through growth remaining above the historical average of 2.0%.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia have highlighted the vulnerability of the global growth model to energy supply shocks.

This time monetary policy cannot and should not be the main tool used to tackle the crisis stemming from the war in Ukraine. It cannot, because interest rates are already at very low levels. Moreover, the high inflation is forcing the central banks to act with extreme caution.

We analyse how the Portuguese economy has managed to maintain the momentum in its exports over the last decade and what their main characteristics are.

In an environment characterised since 2020 by a string of negative disturbances, the positive surprise in 2023 was once again the resilience of the global business cycle, understood as «the ability of a living being to adapt to a disturbing agent or an adverse state or situation», according to the definition of the Royal Spanish Academy.