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Although the trends in inequality are encouraging, we cannot declare victory just yet. Over the coming months, we will have to keep a close eye on whether the observed trend is consolidated, especially in the most vulnerable segments of the population, and adjust the support schemes accordingly.

GDP maintained a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 0.2% in a Q3 marked by a pattern of steady growth.

In 2024, Spain’s real estate market enjoyed a remarkable recovery, with a significant increase in both house prices and sales. Factors such as the growth of gross disposable income, foreign demand and falling rates drove this trend. In this article, we unveil our forecasts for 2025 and explain why we expect this boom to continue.

There are five factors that suggest that the gap between Spain’s GDP and its pre-pandemic trajectory will steadily close through growth remaining above the historical average of 2.0%.

In his first six weeks in the White House, President Trump has succeeded in disrupting the world order repeatedly. On the trade policy front, uncertainty will cloud the economic outlook in the short and medium term, and the risk of protectionist escalation is high.

Thanks to the effectiveness of the vaccines, the economy has experienced a strong revival and life is gradually returning to a certain degree of normality. But an event on the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic can have a lasting impact on the nature of economic activity. The extent of this impact will largely depend on our confidence, ability and willingness to return to pre-crisis investment and consumption patterns.

In this article we analyse whether the savings accumulated during the pandemic are currently acting as a pushback for new consumer lending. If so, will this remain the case into next year?

We analyse how the agreement to reform the constitutional debt ceiling and boost defence spending will impact German sovereign debt and the yield on the 10-year bund.

Trump’s tariffs deal a blow to investor risk appetite and sovereign yield curves steepen on both sides of the Atlantic, as the central banks try to navigate the tidal surge. The stock markets register high volatility and the commodities most dependent on the business cycle fall.

Trump’s tariffs will not serve to reduce the trade deficit, to recover jobs in sectors in which the US has long lost its competitive advantages or to balance the fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, the price to pay is a return to a fragmented world and the destabilisation of the world economy.

In the current context, marked by the breakdown of some supply chains, to what extent can Portugal take advantage of the situation, position itself as an alternative supplier and increase the contribution from exports to GDP growth?

With the international order in the midst of an adjustment, we are entering the summer period with a feeling of tense calm, faced with a challenging geopolitical scenario to which a new layer of complexity is added every week.

While employment in Spain far exceeds pre-pandemic levels, the number of hours actually worked has grown at a slower pace since then. The significant increase in absenteeism due to temporary disability has been one of the main factors behind this trend.

Geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty surrounding foreign demand force us to reassess the strengths and weaknesses of exports in the Spanish economy. To do so, it is essential to analyse what we export, how diversified our range of products is, as well as how competitive it is. To improve our understanding, in this article we will analyse the complexity of the products that are exported, as well as their technological intensity, two key variables for assessing the competitiveness of our exports.

China’s real estate sector is often described as «the most important sector in the world» because of the importance it has amassed in recent decades in the Asian giant’s growth model. We analyse how significant a role it plays in the Chinese economy and the risks of the Evergrande effect.

It is difficult to curb imports in order to defend local production while relying on them as a source of tax revenues. In fact, the more successful US trade policy is in restricting imports, the lower the revenues that can be expected.

The global demographic structure is undergoing a profound transformation and it is becoming less and less like the classic pyramid with a wide base formed by young people and a vertex with the elderly. This change in the silhouette reflects a transformation that will require profound changes in a social system based essentially on working generations funding retirees.