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Since its implementation on 15 June, the so-called Iberian «gas cap» mechanism has brought about a major shift in the way the Spanish electricity system operates. In this article we analyse the effect it has had on electricity prices and some externalities it has introduced.

In his first six weeks in the White House, President Trump has succeeded in disrupting the world order repeatedly. On the trade policy front, uncertainty will cloud the economic outlook in the short and medium term, and the risk of protectionist escalation is high.

We look at the dangers of a wage-price spiral in the US and the euro area, in the current context of inflationary pressures. 

In an environment characterised since 2020 by a string of negative disturbances, the positive surprise in 2023 was once again the resilience of the global business cycle, understood as «the ability of a living being to adapt to a disturbing agent or an adverse state or situation», according to the definition of the Royal Spanish Academy.

We analyse how the Portuguese economy has managed to maintain the momentum in its exports over the last decade and what their main characteristics are.

The major changes in relations between blocs that are taking place in 2022 are driving profound structural transformations in areas such as technology, defence and energy policy. Furthermore, gas, a key component of the energy transition, has recently become a political weapon, putting the many countries and industries that rely on this energy source on high alert.

GDP maintained a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 0.2% in a Q3 marked by a pattern of steady growth.

We analyse how the agreement to reform the constitutional debt ceiling and boost defence spending will impact German sovereign debt and the yield on the 10-year bund.

Trump’s tariffs deal a blow to investor risk appetite and sovereign yield curves steepen on both sides of the Atlantic, as the central banks try to navigate the tidal surge. The stock markets register high volatility and the commodities most dependent on the business cycle fall.

The tightening shift in the Fed’s monetary policy in an attempt to combat inflation already seems to be having a negative impact on the country’s real estate sector. The key question here is: will we see a controlled slowdown or will it be a hard landing?

Trump’s tariffs will not serve to reduce the trade deficit, to recover jobs in sectors in which the US has long lost its competitive advantages or to balance the fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, the price to pay is a return to a fragmented world and the destabilisation of the world economy.

As of the close of this report, military and economic pressure continues around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for the global supply of oil, gas, and derivative products. The IMF, in its April outlook report, points out that despite the strong start to 2026 globally, there is a risk of a severe energy shock if hostilities persist.