COVID-19 is causing a sharp increase in public debt. This may raise concerns but its sustainability is not in question: the ECB's monetary policy, perpetually low interest rates and longer maturities are supporting Europe's economies and alleviating the financial burden.
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Since the lowest point recorded last March, the main index for the US equity has risen almost non-stop by around 70%. In recent weeks, this rally has also been accompanied by dynamics in certain US equity segments that are reminiscent of events followed by major stock market adjustments in the past. Is the US equity market decoupling from economic fundamentals?
The package will be useful in supporting those businesses and self-employed people that have been hardest hit by the pandemic. However, the aid must reach them quickly as it is precisely now, before the economy recovers, when our productive fabric needs a boost.
Like Vladimir and Estragon in Waiting for Godot, economists, academics and central banks have spent the last decade waiting for inflation that never came. At least until COVID-19 arrived on the scene. The rallies in the inflation data and expectations with which 2021 began have revived the debate about its arrival.
Central banks and digital currencies: a major challenge not without its difficulties
Monetary policy
When we think of the main challenges facing central banks in the medium term, we have no choice but to talk about digital currencies. More specifically, we must address the possibility of central banks issuing their own digital currency (so-called central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs). What stage are we currently at? Are CBDCs an option that is making headway and, if so, how should they be designed?
The Spanish government has already sent the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan to the European Commission. The Commission now has two months to evaluate it and the European Council has an additional month to approve it.
If we want to get a better understanding of monetary policy decision-making, we must pay close attention to changes in financial conditions. To do this, there is an important initial step: knowing how to measure them.
Reducing the high stock of Spanish public debt will take time, but in today’s economic context there are factors that could help to make the digestion process more bearable than these astronomical figures (1.34 trillion euros in 2020) might suggest.
Inertia leads us towards recovery. Returning to the point we were at before the pandemic is tempting after so much suffering. But conviction must lead us towards reconstruction. We must
set the course for a destination that is sustainable at the economic, social, environmental and territorial levels.
If the rebound in inflation were stronger and/or more persistent than currently expected, how would the bond market react and how could equities be affected?
How is the rise in commodity prices affecting the prices of final consumer goods? What about its impact on developed and emerging countries?
The pessimistic grey or the critical red of many Spanish households contrast with the hopeful green painted by the main macroeconomic indicators.
The 2021 labour reform has managed to significantly reduce the temporary employment rate in Spain: from an average of 29.7% in the period 2014-2019, it has fallen to 12.7% in 2024. This reduction has occurred across the various sectors, age groups and regions, and it has led to greater employment stability, although job turnover has increased and the number of contracts registered has decreased.
Using internal data and big data techniques, we analyse the water consumption of Catalan households between 2021 and 2024, following the declaration of drought.
In these liquid times we are living in – in which a moderately stable economic and political environment has given way to a changing, unpredictable reality subject to continuous transformation – from time to time it is necessary to pause and reflect on the key trends for the near future. That is what we try to do every November in our Dossier on the annual outlook.
The euro area’s largest economy is facing difficult times and a weak growth outlook. Its model is threatened by the slowdown in world trade, tariff wars, the change in the energy model and the emergence of new rivals.
2025 will be a year in search of a new normal, threatened by the division between economic blocs. The best outcome would be to regain multilateral cooperation in order to tackle the new challenges and spread the risks together.
Europe’s business sector has become more reticent to investment, opting instead to accumulate savings or to pay off debt while awaiting greater certainty and improvements in the competitive conditions of the single market.
The US presidential election to be held on 5 November is particularly significant, both due to the economic and geopolitical challenges that lie ahead and because of the antagonistic nature of the candidates’ profiles and programmes.