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Russia’s importance as a global exporter of oil, natural gas and other commodities is the main channel through which the economic impact of the war in Ukraine will be felt, together with uncertainty and a new open front for global value chains that are already under stress.

Just as the summer is prone to extreme weather phenomena when pockets of cold air coincide with very warm temperatures on the sea surface, August is also often a tumultuous month for the financial markets.

Until not long ago, the financial markets had seemed to digest with relative ease the heavy dose of monetary tightening that the central banks have introduced to curb inflation. However, with interest rates increasingly entering restrictive territory – that is, at levels that should cool the economy – the risk of stress events and financial turbulence increases.

The strength of the labour market and population growth due to migratory flows have led to a rise in Spaniards’ gross disposable income.

In its battle against inflation, monetary policy has tightened considerably, as is clearly visible in official interest rates and those faced by businesses, households and governments. But these interest rates are not an end in themselves; rather, the ultimate goal is to cool economic activity and thus curb inflation. In this article, we have analysed the state of monetary policy transmission through one of its main channels: credit conditions.

The return from the summer break this year has been different to other years: the Spanish economy is where we left it, or even in slightly better shape than we had anticipated, and this will force us to revise our GDP growth forecast for 2024 slightly upwards.

India and China have undergone an unprecedented economic transformation in recent decades, but their growth trajectories have followed diverging paths. In this article, we compare the two models from a long-term perspective, breaking down the factors that have driven their economies: capital, labour and productivity.

All this suggests that we are unlikely to see another significant rebound in inflation in the coming months, and if this scenario materialises as anticipated, households will be able to continue to recover the purchasing power which they have lost in recent quarters.

We summarise the current situation and future outlook for the Spanish tourism sector, as set out in the Tourism Sector Report S1 2023, in this preview from the September edition of the CaixaBank Research Monthly Report.

The Portuguese economy is showing remarkable resilience in 2025, driven mainly by a buoyant labour market and increasingly strong investment.

The 20 economies that make up the Euro area have a single currency with a common monetary policy and, implicitly, a fixed exchange rate. However, in the last two years the region has suffered significant discrepancies in the inflation rates of its member countries. What is behind this dispersion?

In this two-part study, we look at how China has become the centre of gravity of Asian value chains in recent decades and how this has affected trade flows in the surrounding countries, and in particular those of ASEAN member states.