Search results

According to CaixaBank’s internal data, consumption grew by 2.2% in Spain during Q2 2022, despite the decline in consumer confidence due to the inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty.

In these liquid times we are living in – in which a moderately stable economic and political environment has given way to a changing, unpredictable reality subject to continuous transformation – from time to time it is necessary to pause and reflect on the key trends for the near future. That is what we try to do every November in our Dossier on the annual outlook.

The pessimistic grey or the critical red of many Spanish households contrast with the hopeful green painted by the main macroeconomic indicators.

The euro area’s largest economy is facing difficult times and a weak growth outlook. Its model is threatened by the slowdown in world trade, tariff wars, the change in the energy model and the emergence of new rivals.

Debates about inequality often focus on dispersion in wage levels and omit one very important aspect: inequality in wage income also depends on the «intensity» of employment, that is, on whether people are working at all and, if so, how frequently. Spain is a prime example, with a high rate of temporary employment (25.1% in Q2 2021) and a proliferation of ever-shorter labour contracts which has a marked impact on inequality.

2025 will be a year in search of a new normal, threatened by the division between economic blocs. The best outcome would be to regain multilateral cooperation in order to tackle the new challenges and spread the risks together. 

The European Central Bank is also considering the possibility of issuing its own digital currency as a complement to cash and envisages a possible launch in 2025-2026.

Until not long ago, the financial markets had seemed to digest with relative ease the heavy dose of monetary tightening that the central banks have introduced to curb inflation. However, with interest rates increasingly entering restrictive territory – that is, at levels that should cool the economy – the risk of stress events and financial turbulence increases.

Fears about a possible recession in the US economy have intensified in recent months, a risk which has crystallised with the second consecutive fall in GDP in Q2 2022 and with the inversion of some sections of the sovereign yield curve.

The 2021 labour reform has managed to significantly reduce the temporary employment rate in Spain: from an average of 29.7% in the period 2014-2019, it has fallen to 12.7% in 2024. This reduction has occurred across the various sectors, age groups and regions, and it has led to greater employment stability, although job turnover has increased and the number of contracts registered has decreased.

The US presidential election to be held on 5 November is particularly significant, both due to the economic and geopolitical challenges that lie ahead and because of the antagonistic nature of the candidates’ profiles and programmes.

The situation in the Spanish tourism sector has improved dramatically during the summer months, beating the forecasts of many companies in the sector.

In its battle against inflation, monetary policy has tightened considerably, as is clearly visible in official interest rates and those faced by businesses, households and governments. But these interest rates are not an end in themselves; rather, the ultimate goal is to cool economic activity and thus curb inflation. In this article, we have analysed the state of monetary policy transmission through one of its main channels: credit conditions.

If you are reading this article hoping to find out what is going to happen in less than 30 seconds, please stop now. You will be disappointed.

Just as the summer is prone to extreme weather phenomena when pockets of cold air coincide with very warm temperatures on the sea surface, August is also often a tumultuous month for the financial markets.

The strength of the labour market and population growth due to migratory flows have led to a rise in Spaniards’ gross disposable income.

The return from the summer break this year has been different to other years: the Spanish economy is where we left it, or even in slightly better shape than we had anticipated, and this will force us to revise our GDP growth forecast for 2024 slightly upwards.

We go over what is meant by the so-called «base effect» and analyse how it could impact the course of inflation in Spain during 2023.

Europe’s business sector has become more reticent to investment, opting instead to accumulate savings or to pay off debt while awaiting greater certainty and improvements in the competitive conditions of the single market.

If you have read the newspapers this past month of August and have not felt a certain sense of discouragement, either your holiday destination was magical or you are a true optimist.