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We examine the dynamics and factors that have led us to re-evaluate the outlook for the international economy and the financial markets.
We use internal CaixaBank data, duly anonymised, to carry out an exploratory analysis on how consumption patterns change after retirement for the case of Spain. The use of these data allows us to identify individuals’ income, consumption and savings with precision, as well as to identify the moment of retirement.
Despite the encouraging signs of recent months, the international economy will continue to operate in an unstable equilibrium within the forecast horizon.
The available information for Q2 suggests a more positive performance than anticipated for the Portuguese economy. In this context, we believe there is room for a slight improvement in our growth projections.
Spain is facing the latest episode of international geopolitical tension from a position of strength, although rising energy costs, tighter financial conditions and a deteriorating international environment will keep inflation high and reduce economic dynamism. All this has led us to revise upwards our growth forecast for 2026 and to keep the forecast for 2027 unchanged.
As we emerged from the summer, we found an economy in the midst of a slowdown compared to the significant growth rates recorded in the first half of 2023. In this article we present our outlook.
De-risking, decoupling, fracturing, reshoring, nearshoring, friendshoring... understanding the new era of globalisation
The inflation rebound of the last two years has led the Bank of Japan to rethink its monetary policy and abandon yield curve control (YCC), the implications of which we discuss below.
The year 2023 began with forecasts mired in pessimism and fears. In the end, things have gone far better than that. Will the same thing happen in 2024?
After the experience of recent years, we know how political risk can alter the behaviour of key hypotheses in economic forecasting scenarios.
Despite the challenging international context of 2025, which foreshadowed a significant deterioration in Spain’s current account balance after showing uninterrupted surpluses since 2012, the balance has ended up being better than expected, thanks to favourable factors such as the containment of international energy prices and the dynamism of service exports, especially non-tourism services.
The incorporation of these two new dimensions into the indicator allows wage dynamics in Spain to be monitored at a more granular level, based on the aggregated and anonymised analysis of internal data and big data techniques.