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The easing of monetary policy is dependent on inflation continuing to fall towards the 2% target, a path which has been dubbed the «last mile». What factors will help the US economy to complete it?

maintaining the tone of recent quarters, we continue to see more lights than shadows in the complex transition that the business cycle is currently immersed.

Spain’s economy has not abandoned the path of correcting one of its traditional imbalances: its foreign indebtedness. Spain has not only racked up 12 consecutive years with a net lending capacity, but in 2023 its net lending also reached a new all-time high of 3.7% of GDP, compared to 1.5% in 2022.

The National Statistics Institute’s upward revision, combined with the buoyancy we have continued to observe in Q3, has led CaixaBank Research to revise its growth forecast for 2025 from 2.4% to 2.9%. With only three months remaining until the end of the year, it seems unlikely that growth will be far off 3%.

Increasing productivity growth is one of the major challenges that Europe faces. As stated in the introductory article of this Dossier, «Europe’s moment: it is time to bolster our competitiveness», it is urgent to update the productive fabric of Europe’s economy. Rapid technological change allows this. Moreover, the global context, which is increasingly competitive and with a growing distrust of multilateral institutions, makes it imperative.

We have revised our GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 0.1 pp, placing them at 2.4% and 2.0%, respectively. Meanwhile, the available indicators show that the economy continues to enjoy steady growth in Q2.

Is the Trump administration’s strategic shift compatible with the United States’ role as a guarantor of the international economic equilibrium?

Portugal’s growth in the first quarter of the year fell short of expectations, shrinking 0.5% quarter-on-quarter according to the preliminary estimate of Portugal’s National Statistics Institute.

Portugal’s GDP recorded only a small advance in Q2, and job creation and inflation slowed in August.

One of the most highly debated issues around a partial or total peace agreement and the process of Ukraine’s reconstruction is what will happen to the European energy scenario. Will Europe once again be a major customer of Russian energy?

In this article we analyse what factors explain China’s recent cycle of low inflation and what risks could transform it into a deflationary crisis.

September saw Q3 end with widespread gains in the financial markets. The cuts by central banks have prolonged the falls in money market rates and global stock markets have enjoyed a rally.

The concerning budget deficit and rising public debt call into question the new administration’s ability to implement the fiscal proposals promised during the campaign.

Stable economic outlook but with increasing risks: geopolitical instability, uncertainty and a lack of confidence.