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Some sectors have suffered enormously as a result of the pandemic, while others have managed to continue to grow. Between these extremes are those we can call «intermediate» sectors.

The Spanish economy’s trade deficit in energy products has increased considerably and it is unlikely to revert in 2023. In this article we analyse the figures behind the Spanish economy’s energy deficit in 2022 in order to understand what is driving it and what we can expect for 2023.

In this article, we seek to identify the degree to which import prices are transmitted to the CPI, how much is due to energy and with what lag period this transmission is observed.

Spain’s National Statistics Institute has revised the growth of recent years upwards and the flash indicators for Q3 point to an improvement in private consumption, despite the slowdown in the labour market in the quarter. Inflation unexpectedly fell to 1.5% in September, while housing demand was higher than expected.

The financial position of Spanish households has improved in aggregate terms: incomes have grown significantly, wealth continues to recover, indebtedness has decreased, and the financial burden is at a minimum. However, generational inequalities persist.

We analyse the budget deficit reduction plan set out by the government in its 2023-2026 Stability Programme, based on a gradual reduction driven by the recovery of the Spanish economy, bringing it down from 4.8% of GDP in 2022 to 3.9% in 2023 and to 2.5% by 2026.

It has been almost four months since our last update to the macroeconomic scenario. During these months, the Spanish economy has shown a more resilient tone than expected. Furthermore, the normalisation of gas prices, although incomplete, has been confirmed and the peak in reference interest rates is now in sight. Faced with all these changes, we have updated our macro forecast scenario.

We summarise the current situation and future outlook for the Spanish tourism sector, as set out in the Tourism Sector Report S1 2023, in this preview from the September edition of the CaixaBank Research Monthly Report.

We expand on the assessment of the economic impact of the blackout on 28 April in Spain by taking a cross-section by sector and autonomous community region, based on the analysis of internal CaixaBank data.

Beyond the number of visitors, the main challenge for the tourism sector is to continue growing in a sustainable and balanced manner. To this end, it is important to pay attention to other areas of a structural nature, which allow us to make a good diagnosis of the sector’s strengths, in order to continue developing them, as well as the weaknesses that must be addressed in order to make this growth sustainable in the long term. 

We have revised our GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 0.1 pp, placing them at 2.4% and 2.0%, respectively. Meanwhile, the available indicators show that the economy continues to enjoy steady growth in Q2.

The savings rate of Spanish households remains very high, but it can vary substantially depending on income level, so it is important to analyse how it is distributed according to income level and age. We dedicate this article to such an analysis, using anonymised internal data and big data techniques. 

Geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty surrounding foreign demand force us to reassess the strengths and weaknesses of exports in the Spanish economy. To do so, it is essential to analyse what we export, how diversified our range of products is, as well as how competitive it is. To improve our understanding, in this article we will analyse the complexity of the products that are exported, as well as their technological intensity, two key variables for assessing the competitiveness of our exports.

The recent escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, with the outbreak of the war in Iran, has once again placed energy at the centre of the global economic agenda. Although the scope and duration of the conflict remain uncertain, markets, especially those for oil and natural gas, have reacted swiftly. In this context, we analyse where the Spanish economy stands in the face of this new energy shock.

The available information suggests that Spain’s economic activity has continued to grow at a steady pace during Q1, despite an adverse economic context and inflation hovering at around 3%.