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The income balance in Spain shows a historical structural deficit, which is closely linked to the Spanish economy’s debtor position vis-à-vis the rest of the world. However, the deterioration it has suffered in 2023 is closely linked to the rise in interest rates.

The Spanish Ministry of Social Security sees the UK's company pension schemes as a benchmark for the reform of the pension system. What is the British model and how far can it be exported to Spain?

The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in Spanish firms has accelerated in recent years, but the process has been uneven and remains incomplete. This article analyses the extent of AI penetration considering four key dimensions: company size, sectoral differences, specific uses within organisations and the main barriers hindering its deployment, as well as a comparison with the rest of Europe. Understanding how and where AI is being incorporated is particularly important from a business and macroeconomic perspective, as its adoption influences efficiency and productivity gains and can widen gaps between firms, sectors and workers in a productive fabric like Spain’s, which is dominated by SMEs and microenterprises.

In this Focus we present the main conclusions of the Sectoral Observatory, a new publication by CaixaBank Research in which we offer a clear and detailed analysis of the evolution of the Spanish economy from the point of view of its sectors.

The goal has been identified and diagnosed for some time, but it is difficult to achieve. It requires patience, resources, both public and private, and determination and cooperation among the various institutions and agents involved, precisely because the challenge is so great. 

The war in the Middle East could generate a new shock to the global economy that would also affect the Spanish economy. In this article, we analyse the three main channels through which it could do so: the first is inflation, through the rising cost of energy, other products originating from the Persian Gulf, and increased maritime transport costs; the second is external demand, if the conflict hampers the growth of our trading partners; and the third is the financial channel, in the event of rising interest rates and tighter financial conditions. In addition to these three factors, there is the effect of fiscal policy; indeed, the government already announced a first set of measures on 20 March to cushion the impact of the shock.

The tourism sector is reaching high levels of utilisation of its productive capacity, so we can expect the pace of growth to gradually moderate. However, Spain’s economy has other levers at its disposal.

The strength of the labour market and population growth due to migratory flows have led to a rise in Spaniards’ gross disposable income.

Pending an assessment of the impact that the storm which hit Eastern Spain at the end of October may have had on agricultural production in the region, over the coming quarters we expect the positive trend in the sector to gather strength. That said, it will remain highly conditional on how costs evolve, as well as on the easing of the drought.

The euro area’s largest economy is facing difficult times and a weak growth outlook. Its model is threatened by the slowdown in world trade, tariff wars, the change in the energy model and the emergence of new rivals.

CaixaBank Research’s forecast scenario for the Spanish economy, which was finalised before the outbreak of the war in Iran, anticipates dynamic growth in 2026, albeit more moderate than that of recent years. Domestic demand, and especially private consumption and investment, began the year with sufficient momentum to enjoy strong growth and continue leading the recovery. However, the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East opens a new chapter of global economic and political uncertainty.

The Spanish economy continues to show significant dynamism, with better performance than expected, driven by domestic demand (both private consumption and investment). Among other factors, this is thanks to the strong financial situation of both households and firms, favourable financing conditions, the normalisation of inflation and the strength of the labour market.

The National Statistics Institute’s upward revision, combined with the buoyancy we have continued to observe in Q3, has led CaixaBank Research to revise its growth forecast for 2025 from 2.4% to 2.9%. With only three months remaining until the end of the year, it seems unlikely that growth will be far off 3%.

The rapid and unpredictable reconfiguration of the global geopolitical order is offering no respite and requires a constant reassessment of the state of each economy. What is the starting point, what are the strengths and areas of support, and what are the weaknesses or aspects that need to be addressed in order to bolster resilience? In the fragile and uncertain international context, reinforcing this last aspect seems more necessary than ever. The overall assessment of the state of the Spanish economy is relatively positive, particularly regarding the most recent dynamics, but significant challenges remain pending if this trend is to be sustained in the medium term.

The Spanish economy is growing at a good pace – more so than expected – and this leads us here at CaixaBank Research to revise our growth forecasts for 2025 upwards from 2.3% to 2.5%. Despite the good news, the focus is not on the improvement in the forecasts, but rather on the uncertainty that surrounds them. 

The good growth data for the Spanish economy in the final stretch of 2024 lead us to revise upwards our GDP growth forecast for 2025. However, the greater likelihood of tariff tensions between the US and the EU invites us to remain cautious. In this regard, we expect the economy to grow by 2.5% in 2025, above the 2.3% we were previously predicting, albeit somewhat below the revision we could have made in the absence of this uncertainty factor.

Despite Spain’s tourism model being highly competitive, the recovery of the different types of tourists has been uneven. This article examines how the reasons for international visits have changed, comparing the current situation with that of 2019, in order to assess whether there have been significant shifts in consumption patterns that are relevant to the sector.