In recent years, European inflation has been stubbornly below the ECB’s desired rate, and since 2018 it has been slipping even further away. This weakness has intensified with the COVID-19 crisis. Will this weakness be temporary or permanent?
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Activity in Spain’s real estate market is recovering from its extraordinary slump during the first lockdown. In Q3 2020, house sales and new building permits recovered much of the ground lost, a positive trend we expect to consolidate in 2021. Moreover, the impact of the crisis on house prices has been relatively moderate so far, although we expect these will continue to adjust in the latter part of 2020 and the first half of 2021. In particular, CaixaBank Research’s new house price forecasting models at the level of province, based on large amounts of information (big data) and applying machine learning techniques, predict that house prices will fall in 7 out of 10 Spanish provinces in 2021 and grow very moderately in the rest.
Intuition tells us that a shock like COVID-19 should increase country risk and this has certainly been confirmed by the data. Nevertheless, a longer-lasting impact on country risk should be observed, which is not the case.
Este documento de trabajo presenta un nuevo modelo macroeconómico de CaixaBank Research para la economía española, con el objetivo de que se convierta en una de las herramientas habituales para la elaboración de previsiones a medio plazo y realizar escenarios de riesgo.
There is a broad consensus on the need to reform European fiscal rules, which are too complex, unpredictable and insufficiently sensitive to the state of the business cycle. The COVID-19 crisis has forced their suspension and the Commission is debating their reform.
Este documento de trabajo presenta un nuevo modelo macroeconómico de CaixaBank Research para la economía de la eurozona, con el objetivo de que se convierta en una herramienta más para elaborar previsiones a medio plazo y realizar escenarios de riesgo.
Emerging economies will experience a clear recovery in growth in 2021 and 2022. According to our latest projections, this decline will give way to growth of 4.8% in 2021 and of 3.8% in 2022. But the real key for the emerging world right now is not the recovery itself, but how unequal it is going to be.
The competitiveness of the Spanish foreign sector: current snapshot and 3D roadmap
Activity & growth
The pandemic has been felt in all sectors of the economy, particularly in tourism services, a key sector for the Spanish economy. Nevertheless, the foreign sector held up very well in the face of an unprecedented shock, and despite not having this traditional contribution the current account managed to maintain a surplus. The starting point for rebuilding a path of sustainable growth is better than one might have expected.
Why is it so difficult to carry out reforms? Why, if structural reforms tend to improve the future prospects for the majority of the population, is it so difficult to adopt them? The difficulty lies precisely in two of the aforementioned words, future and majority.
NGEU is a powerful anti-cyclical policy, but there are many doubts about its potential scope and long-term legacy. If high-quality programmes are chosen, effectively developed and accompanied by useful reforms (the conditions attached to the disbursements could play an important role), a very high impact and potentially even permanent benefits could be achieved. If not, the boost to growth will be only fleeting.
Dossier
The economic-financial environment globally and in Spain
Nuestro director de Economía española explica el potencial de los datos en tiempo real y cómo los estamos utilizando en CaixaBank Research para monitorizar la economía. El vídeo forma parte de la colección «Formación sobre ruedas», una iniciativa de Accionistas CaixaBank para fomentar la cultura financiera.
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The current international economic environment and the current economic environment in Spain
In this issue, we focus on China's commodity stockpiling strategy and the fiscal room for maneuver of the new Trump administration. As for the Spanish economy, which we expect to continue to grow above the eurozone average in 2025, we present new forecasts for the real estate sector, analyze the Treasury's strategy in a context of a reduction in the public deficit and note the improvement in employment stability as a result of the decline in the temporary employment rate.
The Spanish real estate market accelerated in 2024, supported by the easing of financial conditions and the strength of the country’s economy. In 2025, we expect that demand will remain very strong and, although supply will continue to gradually increase, the housing deficit accumulated in recent years will sustain significant price growth at levels similar to the current ones.
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Spain's external sector
Dossier
Tourism, sector of the future
Dossier
Low real interest rates and economic stability