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October is the month in which we present the update of our economic forecast scenario. Broadly speaking, the world economy is moving at a higher cruising speed than had been anticipated at the beginning of the year, and the buoyancy of the Spanish economy leads us to revise our growth forecast for 2025 upwards. In addition, in this issue we analyse how Trump 2.0 policies could favour investment flows into the euro area, as well as the relationship between firm size and productivity gaps in the European Union. We also review the recovery of Europe’s tourism sector following the pandemic, we take stock of the summer season for Spain’s tourism sector and we identify which autonomous communities could be the most affected by the US tariff hikes.

Taking advantage of the upcoming year end, we have prepared our traditional Dossier analysing the trends and key elements that will determine the behaviour of the economy in 2026. First, we analyse the resilience of the global economy to the tariff storm and the challenges it faces in a future that will continue to be marked by geopolitics, precisely one year after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. In the second article, we address the European challenge of reducing public debt amid the need to invest in defence, innovation and the green and digital transition. Next, we focus specifically on the outlook for the US economy, which is facing the new year with a mix of strength and vulnerability. Finally, we quantify the forecasts for the Spanish economy, which has shown better-than-expected dynamism in recent quarters in an adverse international context.

This month we explore in depth the impact and implementation of the Next Generation EU funds in a new Dossier. We begin with an analysis of the status of the implementation of these funds at the European level, followed by an assessment of their impact and future challenges. Next, we examine how they are being managed in Spain, highlighting both current achievements and future expectations. We also address investments beyond NGEU, which are necessary in order for Europe to adapt and thrive in an environment as demanding as the current one. Finally, we compare the US model of economic transformation with the European approach.

Against a backdrop marked by geopolitical tensions, uncertain tariff negotiations and fiscal imbalances in key economies, this summer edition of the Monthly Report looks at how trade fragmentation and the pursuit of strategic autonomy are redefining the international economic order. At the same time, it examines other issues that are key to the Spanish economy, ranging from the relationship between employment growth and productivity, to the impact of unexpected events such as the April blackout.

We begin the year by addressing one of the major challenges of the European and Spanish economies in a new Dossier: «An analysis of European productivity». In it, we explore the recent dynamics in productivity within the European Union, focusing on its territorial dispersion and the differentiating factors between the best and worst performing regions. After providing some initial context by outlining the main trends, we distinguish the different groups of European regions according to their productivity level and analyse the key economic factors that drive it. Finally, we identify the factors that hinder productivity growth in the Spanish economy, and those that could drive it, focusing on the evolution of productivity in the various autonomous community regions and on their defining traits, and we compare them with other European regions.

This month we celebrate 500 issues of our Monthly Report by taking a deep dive into the current economic situation and focusing on other hot topics, ranging from the gold price rally and the depreciation of the dollar in the financial markets, to investor apathy in the US and India’s role as a player in the international economy. As for Spain, we stop to examine the financial solidity of the country’s firms and the recent growth of public consumption. Thank you for continuing to read our publication!