November 2025| No. 505

Taking advantage of the upcoming year end, we have prepared our traditional Dossier analysing the trends and key elements that will determine the behaviour of the economy in 2026. First, we analyse the resilience of the global economy to the tariff storm and the challenges it faces in a future that will continue to be marked by geopolitics, precisely one year after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. In the second article, we address the European challenge of reducing public debt amid the need to invest in defence, innovation and the green and digital transition. Next, we focus specifically on the outlook for the US economy, which is facing the new year with a mix of strength and vulnerability. Finally, we quantify the forecasts for the Spanish economy, which has shown better-than-expected dynamism in recent quarters in an adverse international context.