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We analyse the European manufacturing industry’s import dependency on China and the United States and strategies to reduce it in a more fragmented geopolitical context.

Is the Trump administration’s strategic shift compatible with the United States’ role as a guarantor of the international economic equilibrium?

September saw Q3 end with widespread gains in the financial markets. The cuts by central banks have prolonged the falls in money market rates and global stock markets have enjoyed a rally.

The Draghi report lays the foundations for re-industrialisation in Europe, combining sweeping actions with a menu of specific proposals for 10 strategic sectors.

The US labour market is cooling down. The Fed acknowledges it and the statistics confirm it: the unemployment rate has increased 0.7 pps so far this year and in June job creation hit its lowest levels since 2021. Should we be concerned?

The tailwinds generated by the latest inflation data and strong labour markets coexist with a natural loss of cyclical momentum and, in particular, with an environment marked by high geopolitical risks. This combination of competing forces will determine the pace of growth over the coming quarters.

Following the last update of the macroeconomic scenario in June this year, we have incorporated the new information that has come to light and have re-examined the main factors dominating the scenario.

The 2021 labour reform has managed to significantly reduce the temporary employment rate in Spain: from an average of 29.7% in the period 2014-2019, it has fallen to 12.7% in 2024. This reduction has occurred across the various sectors, age groups and regions, and it has led to greater employment stability, although job turnover has increased and the number of contracts registered has decreased.

The CBO’s report published in June reveals that, in the absence of any substantial changes in fiscal policy, the US’ public accounts are set to deteriorate significantly over the coming decade: by 2034 the deficit would represent 7% of GDP, well above the historical level of 3.7%, while public debt would continue to climb to new highs, reaching 122% of GDP.

Broadly speaking, there are three key factors which define the new macroeconomic picture of the Spanish economy that we have elaborated here at CaixaBank Research, and which are shared by most of the institutions that have updated their forecasts.

Given its official «data-dependent» strategy, the ECB’s upcoming decisions will be subject to the current signals provided by the data, although they will likely also be conditioned by expectations regarding the US economic agenda and its consequences for the future.

The Spanish government has presented to parliament the Draft General State Budgets for 2022 and has sent to Brussels its Budget Plan showing a picture of the consolidated general government accounts. What lies behind these figures? In which categories will the deficit reduction be concentrated?

Although the savings rate in the US today is well below pre-pandemic levels, the savings accumulated during 2020 and 2021 due to the mobility restrictions and fiscal stimulus measures could continue to favour consumption in the remainder of 2022 and in 2023.