China's financial restructuring includes improving the quality of its debt and financial system, as well as achieving more balanced growth with greater emphasis on private consumption and high value-added exports.
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Con la Iniciativa de la Franja y la Ruta, China no solo ha diversificado los destinos de sus exportaciones en los últimos años, sino que también ha diversificado los orígenes de sus importaciones, convirtiéndose en un consumidor voraz de materias primas.
Construction costs in Spain have increased considerably since January 2021, a rise that was prompted by the strong recovery in global demand as the economy reopened after the pandemic but was further aggravated by the outbreak of war in Ukraine. In recent months, however, the price of industrial metals on international markets has fallen sharply and the futures markets point to prices stabilising to some extent. Given this situation, the cost of construction materials in Spain is expected to moderate in 2023.
Spain’s automotive sector is trying to find its place in the new global ecosystem, having overcome the adverse environment of recent years, marked by the international supply problems affecting essential inputs such as microchips and semiconductors, as well as increases in prices and interest rates.
Disruptions in global supply chains, present in markets since the end of 2020 due to the reactivation of demand after the worst phases of the pandemic, and later due to the effects of the war in Ukraine and the persistence of COVID-19 in Asia, affected activity in some manufacturing branches throughout the second half of 2021 and, above all, in 2022. In some sectors, the most intense episodes of difficulties for international trade forced production to be cut back on an ad hoc basis, or even to come to a halt. Logically, those industries most dependent on imports of raw materials and/or intermediate goods for their production processes, as well as those with greater complexity in their value chains, suffered the most.
We analyse the recent evolution of China’s real estate sector, focusing on home prices, sales and the financial health of the agents involved.
We look at the cooling of the global manufacturing sector at a time marked by the convergence of various factors: the aftermath of the pandemic, the pull effect of China and the repercussions of the energy crisis for European industry.
The resilience shown by the international economy at the aggregate level, which is quite remarkable given the significant geopolitical uncertainty and restrictive financial conditions dominating the scenario, reflects disparate dynamics among the various international economies, with each one seeking to make an orderly landing amidst their own challenges. The US is experiencing strong growth and is seeking to normalise towards more sustainable rates, while the euro area is showing signs of less apathetic growth and China maintains mixed dynamics between industry and domestic demand.
We analyse the European manufacturing industry’s import dependency on China and the United States and strategies to reduce it in a more fragmented geopolitical context.
Having laid out the complex trade relationship between the United States and China, we continue to analyse the phenomenon of de-risking among the major economic powers, focusing on the European Union.
The global economy continues to grow at different speeds in Q2. In the US, the labour market is beginning to show signs of moderation while inflation continues its slow downward trickle; Germany’s weakness conditions the euro area as a whole, and China’s economy faces a modest outlook for Q3.
We expect the global economy to grow by 3.1% both in 2025 and in 2026 (up from 2.9% previously), driven by upward revisions in the US (from 1.3% to 1.8% in 2025) and China (from 4.2% to 4.6%), in addition to marginal improvements in the euro area (from 1.2% to 1.3%).
The Ukraine conflict is nothing more than the canary in the coal mine for the growing instability on the geopolitical stage that we can expect to see over the coming years. The greatest exponent of this heightened instability will be the rivalry between China and the US.
In this second article on globalisation, we analyse the growing fragmentation of the world economy in recent times, focusing on the decoupling between the US and China, and its effects.
While the direct impact of an increase of US tariffs on China may be limited, perhaps the greatest risk lies in the indirect effects of an escalation of protectionism: an old rule of international trade is that there is no such thing as an unanswered tariff.
COVID-19 is having a huge impact on economic activity in Spain and, in particular, on the tourism industry. At CaixaBank Research we expect GDP to fall by between 13% and 15% in 2020, not returning to its pre-crisis levels until 2023. The outlook in 2020 is even grimmer for Spain's tourism industry as it is one of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic.