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The BRI has become a key element for China’s global positioning. Faced with weakened domestic demand and chronic overcapacity, the initiative has facilitated the opening up of new markets, the diversification of export destinations, the dominance of value chains for critical commodities that are essential for its industrial development, and the reduction of dependence on geo-economic rivals, a factor that has gained particular importance in recent years.
Construction costs in Spain have increased considerably since January 2021, a rise that was prompted by the strong recovery in global demand as the economy reopened after the pandemic but was further aggravated by the outbreak of war in Ukraine. In recent months, however, the price of industrial metals on international markets has fallen sharply and the futures markets point to prices stabilising to some extent. Given this situation, the cost of construction materials in Spain is expected to moderate in 2023.
Spain’s automotive sector is trying to find its place in the new global ecosystem, having overcome the adverse environment of recent years, marked by the international supply problems affecting essential inputs such as microchips and semiconductors, as well as increases in prices and interest rates.
Disruptions in global supply chains, present in markets since the end of 2020 due to the reactivation of demand after the worst phases of the pandemic, and later due to the effects of the war in Ukraine and the persistence of COVID-19 in Asia, affected activity in some manufacturing branches throughout the second half of 2021 and, above all, in 2022. In some sectors, the most intense episodes of difficulties for international trade forced production to be cut back on an ad hoc basis, or even to come to a halt. Logically, those industries most dependent on imports of raw materials and/or intermediate goods for their production processes, as well as those with greater complexity in their value chains, suffered the most.
We analyse the European manufacturing industry’s import dependency on China and the United States and strategies to reduce it in a more fragmented geopolitical context.
The resilience shown by the international economy at the aggregate level, which is quite remarkable given the significant geopolitical uncertainty and restrictive financial conditions dominating the scenario, reflects disparate dynamics among the various international economies, with each one seeking to make an orderly landing amidst their own challenges. The US is experiencing strong growth and is seeking to normalise towards more sustainable rates, while the euro area is showing signs of less apathetic growth and China maintains mixed dynamics between industry and domestic demand.
In this second article on globalisation, we analyse the growing fragmentation of the world economy in recent times, focusing on the decoupling between the US and China, and its effects.
While the direct impact of an increase of US tariffs on China may be limited, perhaps the greatest risk lies in the indirect effects of an escalation of protectionism: an old rule of international trade is that there is no such thing as an unanswered tariff.
We look at the cooling of the global manufacturing sector at a time marked by the convergence of various factors: the aftermath of the pandemic, the pull effect of China and the repercussions of the energy crisis for European industry.
The global economy continues to grow at different speeds in Q2. In the US, the labour market is beginning to show signs of moderation while inflation continues its slow downward trickle; Germany’s weakness conditions the euro area as a whole, and China’s economy faces a modest outlook for Q3.
Pocos temas económicos han tenido tantas idas y venidas en tan poco tiempo como la saga arancelaria de la Administración Trump 2.0. En apenas 18 meses, los analistas (no digamos ya las empresas conectadas al comercio internacional) hemos vivido en una auténtica montaña rusa: el icónico Liberation Day; la escalada sin precedentes con China, con aranceles superiores al 100%; o el episodio de Groenlandia, dentro de las habituales amenazas a la UE.
The Ukraine conflict is nothing more than the canary in the coal mine for the growing instability on the geopolitical stage that we can expect to see over the coming years. The greatest exponent of this heightened instability will be the rivalry between China and the US.
Having laid out the complex trade relationship between the United States and China, we continue to analyse the phenomenon of de-risking among the major economic powers, focusing on the European Union.