In 2023, Spain’s tourism sector remained on the path of recovery and growth, surpassing initial expectations and breaking records, not only in nominal expenditure but also in real terms. In 2024, we expect the positive trend for Spain’s tourism sector to continue and its GDP to increase by 2.5%, with the sector outpacing the overall economy and remaining one of the drivers of the Spanish economy.
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The sector is focusing on a strategy of diversifying its supply and addressing the weaknesses of the traditional sun, sea and sand model in order to maintain the leadership enjoyed by Spain in the global competitiveness ranking.
Spanish tourism has made a strong start to 2023. International tourist arrivals have returned to the levels of 2019 while records have been broken by international tourism expenditure. Domestic tourism has been growing since 2022 but with less momentum due to a combination of reduced purchasing power and greater outbound travel. Although tourism is currently one of the drivers of the Spanish economy, several headwinds are likely to appear in the coming quarters. The complicated macroeconomic outlook in the countries of origin of inbound tourists, the reactivation of more distant destinations for European and Spanish tourists, and competition from more economical destinations point to a slowdown in Spain’s tourism industry as we approach 2024.
Tourism expenditure from the United States in Spain has shown a marked slowdown since late 2024. This deceleration partly reflects the normalization of tourism growth after the pandemic, as well as macroeconomic factors such as the appreciation of the euro against the dollar and deteriorating growth prospects for the US economy. However, since these factors operate with a time lag, it is likely that the current slowdown also stems from rising uncertainty surrounding US economic and trade policies impacting Americans' propensity to travel to Spain. Considering that in 2024, US tourists accounted for 4.6% of total arrivals and 7.1% of international tourist spending in Spain, this slowdown could potentially subtract up to 1 percentage point from growth of tourism GDP in 2025. Certain regions, particularly non-coastal urban areas, could experience greater impacts due to their higher dependency on American tourist expenditure. Thus far, the sharpest slowdown has been observed in rural areas, where the share of American tourists is comparatively smaller.
Growth in the number of international tourists was contained in 2019 due to the global economic situation and the recovery of rival markets in the Mediterranean. However, the tourism sector looks resilient, supported by the consumption of domestic tourism and the drive towards higher quality tourism.
In recent years, rural tourism has become increasingly important in Spain, opening up new avenues to diversify the sources of income for rural economies. In this article, based on internal CaixaBank data, we look at the upturn in the sector after the COVID-19 pandemic and its implications for the economic resilience of rural Spain and for the tourism industry, given its high level of sustainability both from the point of view of its impact on the environment and its greater geographic diversification and more limited seasonality compared to other, more traditional forms of tourism such as sun, sea and sand destinations.
The situation in the tourism sector improved considerably during the summer season. Vaccinations have represented a clear turning point, leading to the lifting of restrictions and the recovery of travel in Europe, as well as keeping the pandemic under control. The indicators for demand, supply and even prices confirm a radical change in the situation, not only in Spain but also in the countries around us. This good summer harvest encourages us to be optimistic about the coming months, when we expect to see a consolidation in the recovery that should ensure 2022 will once again be a good year for Spain’s tourism industry.
After an exceptional 2023 for tourism in Spain, with record levels of international arrivals, spending, overnight stays and domestic tourism, the figures for 2024 are exceeding expectations and marking the best start to the year in the sector’s history. CaixaBank Research forecasts that tourism GDP will grow by 5% in 2024 (more than double the rate expected for the economy as a whole), with over 90 million visits by international tourists.
Using anonymised and aggregated data from card payments made via CaixaBank point of sale terminals, we analysed whether there were any changes in tourist spending and found that the hottest areas of the country experienced slower growth in tourist expenditure between the high seasons of 2019 and 2023. We also found changes as well as changes in the pattern of expenditure during heat waves.
The tourism industry is a key sector for Spain's economy and the decline forecast in tourism for 2020 will have a major impact on the country's level of economic activity. However, this economic impact will not be spread evenly throughout Spain as there are big differences between regions in the relative importance of the tourism sector. We expect the islands and Mediterranean communities to be more exposed than the average in Spain, while inland regions will suffer less.
The recent boom in Spain’s international tourism is having a very positive impact on the growth of the economy and of employment. However, it also has repercussions for the resident population that are not always positive, such as greater congestion due to the larger influx of tourists in certain parts of Spain. This has rekindled the debate on the need to move towards higher quality tourism.
The indicators show that the growth rate of Spain’s tourism sector is normalising after the exceptional figures of 2022-2024, driven by the post-pandemic recovery and the consequent rebound in the consumption of services. The trends observed at the end of 2024 are continuing in 2025: the sector remains attractive to a growing number of international tourists, while the presence of resident tourists in local destinations is diminishing in favour of increased prominence abroad. Even so, this year the sector will once again be key for the Spanish economy. According to our forecasts, tourism GDP will grow by 2.7%, thanks to the solid start to the year, the increase in household disposable income, the revival of some European economies and the moderation of tourism inflation.
Europe is the world's main source of tourists and the Mediterranean basin its main destination. This is doubly beneficial for Spain, whose tourism sector is one of the most firmly established in the region. However, other countries' tourism industries are developing strongly and the re-emergence of Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey has altered the playing field.
The full recovery of international tourism spending in Spain hides major changes in the structure of demand by region of origin. Using data on payments made with foreign cards on CaixaBank POS terminals, duly aggregated and anonymised, we see that Western Europe remains the main issuer of tourists, and that North America and Latin America significantly increased their share of foreign spending. In contrast, the recovery of tourism from the Middle East and Asia and Oceania has been more disparate, affected by geopolitical and economic factors. Overall, a stable but robust growth outlook for 2024-2025 indicates that international tourism in Spain will remain in good shape.
After the recent boom in tourism, of 2018 growth of international tourism slowed down in all regions of the world, with the exception of the Middle East where it increased substantially.
The key to the sustained increase in international tourist arrivals is the high sensitivity of demand to income growth in the source countries and a relatively moderate increase in domestic prices relative to the bigger increases occurring in competing destinations.
Tourism ended this year’s summer season in great shape with international tourist arrivals coming very close to the records set in 2019, a year that was extremely positive for the industry. Domestic tourism has also continued to post very good figures. However, the macroeconomic scenario represents a risk for the trend in tourism activity over the coming quarters due to high inflation and the economic slowdown in Europe. Nevertheless, we believe that tourism demand still enjoys significant levers for growth in the coming year and we therefore expect the sector to complete its recovery in 2023.
In 2025, tourism consolidated its normalisation after the post-pandemic rebound, reaching record levels of activity and profitability. According to our estimates, tourism GDP grew by 2.7%, moderating from 6.0% in 2024, but giving way to a phase of expansion with more sustainable rates and even higher than pre-pandemic levels. International tourism reached new record highs, with 97 million arrivals (+3.5%) and spending of €135 billion (+7.0%), ranking Spain second worldwide in both arrivals (after France) and spending (after the USA). The hotel sector maintained record occupancy rates and improved its profitability, with particular dynamism in rural destinations compared to traditional ones. The outlook remains favourable: Tourism GDP is expected to grow between 2.5% and 2.7% annually in 2026-2027, slightly above the pace of the economy.
Rural destinations have emerged as the most attractive choice after the outbreak of the pandemic. Rural areas were a great alternative in the summer for those tourists wanting to travel whilst still maintaining a social distance. As a result, the loss of tourism business in the less urban regions of Spain has been much lower than in more traditional coastal destinations and cities. This article has applied big data techniques to analyse the trends in card payments made by both domestic and international tourists according to the characteristics of the destinations they visited. The results confirm the increased resilience of rural tourism destinations in 2020, suggesting a positive outlook for rural tourism in 2021.
One of the consequences of the COVID-19 health crisis has been the increased awareness of the population and, by extension, that of politicians regarding the need to include sustainability criteria in economic policies in order to promote a more sustainable and resilient reactivation of the economy. The tourism industry is no stranger to these trends; firstly, because its business can be adversely affected by the consequences of climate change and, secondly, because there is ample scope for the industry to become more sustainable. This article attempts to determine what we understand by sustainability in the tourism sector, how it can be measured, the current situation of Spain’s tourism industry and where it is heading.