We analyse the post-pandemic recovery of tourism from one of the Portuguese economy’s star source markets: the US.
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In the midst of the low season for much of the sector, the figures published month by month continue to confirm strong demand despite the challenging economic environment that is affecting the global economy, particularly the European one. Will this dynamic continue in the coming months?
The situation in the Spanish tourism sector has improved dramatically during the summer months, beating the forecasts of many companies in the sector.
In 2023, the tourism sector in Portugal continued its path of recovery, exceeding expectations and setting new records in various parameters. For 2024, we expect this good performance to be maintained, albeit at a pace closer to cruising speed.
In this article, we delve into the figures of the tourism sector in order to paint a more detailed picture of its recovery trajectory, which identifies the major trends and provides clues as to what we can expect for the remainder of the year.
During the months of lockdown there was a radical change in food consumption patterns in Spain. Using internal data on spending with Spanish and foreign cards via CaixaBank POS terminals, we can see that expenditure in supermarkets and large food stores picked up noticeably during the state of emergency. Online shopping also increased, partly to minimise travel and contact between people, whereas consumption in restaurants plummeted. Despite the fact that, during the summer, household expenditure on restaurants picked up strongly, the slump in foreign tourism continues to be particularly detrimental to establishments geared towards international clients.
This year and the next, the Spanish economy will enjoy strong expansionary momentum, supported by robust domestic demand and competitive advantages over its main European partners. Despite a challenging global environment, we forecast GDP growth of 2.9% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, supported by, among other factors, improved financial conditions supporting continued growth in private consumption and investment, population growth and relatively competitive energy costs. The sectoral analysis also reveals a broad-based expansionary cycle, which ranges from the best-performing sectors such as construction and pharmaceuticals to those that will grow at a more moderate pace, e.g. textiles and motor vehicles.
After the strong recovery undergone by the tourism sector last summer, the activity indicators published up to December showed no signs of slowing down.
Based on an anonymised analysis of internal CaixaBank data, we perform an in-depth study of recent patterns in spending on catering in Spain.
Air passenger transport is one of the mainstays of the tourism sector's value chain. For this reason, and in a similar way to the rest of the sector, it experienced a huge slump in 2020 in the wake of COVID-19. Airlines are currently having to tackle a combination of high capital costs due to their large structures and an almost total lack of operating income. The evident need for liquidity among Europe's airlines has led some governments to inject public capital to prevent their collapse. However, 2021 looks like being the watershed the tourism sector needs: the progress made by the vaccination roll-outs and the approval of measures such as the health passport will be crucial for air passenger transport to embark on the road to recovery and return to being one of the mainstays of tourism.