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Historically, and in general terms, increases (or decreases) in consumption go hand in hand with larger increases (or decreases) in consumer credit. This relationship is particularly close in the case of durable goods, which are the most frequently financed given that they tend to be larger expenses.

One of the variables with the greatest impact on consumption decisions are prices, which fell on aggregate by 0.3% in 2020 in Spain according to official data.²⁵ However, there were marked changes in consumption patterns last year, making it very difficult to accurately measure the figure actually faced by consumers. CaixaBank’s own estimates based on high-frequency internal data suggest that inflation was somewhat higher, namely 0.1%.²⁶ Moreover, inflation did not affect everyone equally, with differences depending on age and income.

The Spanish economy has shown a positive tone in the opening months of 2025, driven, above all, by the revival of domestic demand. Although growth is expected to be slightly more moderate than last year, the decline in inflation and interest rates will act as important support factors in an international context marked by uncertainty. The CaixaBank Research Sectoral Indicator reflects this buoyancy in the opening months of the year and shows an increase in the number of sectors in expansion, although the picture is somewhat mixed.

Extreme drought and rising costs have created a perfect storm that has nonetheless failed to dampen the high spirits of Spain’s agrifood exports in recent years. The decline in the volume of exports experienced by the sector, offset by the increase in prices, is the result of an adverse situation but the various competitiveness indicators look resilient and global market shares are still behaving very favourably. Even so, the sector must continue to invest in order to ensure its production becomes even more digitised, sustainable and competitive, a mission of vital importance given the huge challenge posed by climate change for the country.

Spain’s real estate market started to slow down by mid-2022 with the change in monetary policy. For the time being, and despite the fact that the ECB has already raised its benchmark interest rates by 4 bp, the pace of this slowdown is proving to be gentler than anticipated, leading us to improve our forecasts for the sector in 2023. However, looking ahead to the coming quarters, we still expect a marked dip in the number of sales from the high figures recorded in 2022 as well as a slowdown in house price growth, especially in 2024, within the context of higher interest rates for longer. Nevertheless, there are several factors that will continue to support the sector and make a sharp correction such as the one seen in 2008-2013 unlikely, including a resilient labour market and significant inflows of immigrants.

The outbreak of the pandemic has changed the scenario for investment in retail-related property. On the one hand, severe mobility restrictions and social distancing measures have lowered prices and rents for commercial premises, reducing investor interest. On the other hand, COVID-19 has brought about a change in the habits of Spanish consumers that has benefited supermarkets, where investment reached record highs in 2020, and has accelerated the penetration of online commerce in the retail sector, boosting investment in the logistics required to support this sales channel.

Spain’s automotive sector is trying to find its place in the new global ecosystem, having overcome the adverse environment of recent years, marked by the international supply problems affecting essential inputs such as microchips and semiconductors, as well as increases in prices and interest rates.

The Spanish housing market is in the midst of a boom, driven by lower interest rates, the improvement in purchasing power and population growth. Demand continues to grow sharply, with foreign buyers playing a notable role, while supply is also steadily gaining traction, although it still does not compensate for the housing deficit accumulated since 2021. House prices continue to accelerate, now exceeding the peak reached in 2007 in nominal terms, and signs of overvaluation are beginning to become apparent. However, the current context differs from the one prior to the bursting of the housing bubble: rather than an oversupply, there is a serious housing deficit, and that is what primarily explains the pressure on prices; moreover, households, the construction and developer sector, and the financial system are in a strong financial position. We expect prices and sales to remain dynamic in the coming quarters, underscoring the need to increase the supply of affordable housing.

The most recent real estate market data show that the upward trend in demand and house prices has been accentuated in the early stages of 2022, in line with the positive inertia that the Spanish economy has maintained despite the adverse context. However, in the medium term the outlook is that the real estate market will tend to slow down.

The Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (PRTR) for the Spanish economy could be an important catalyst for the real estate sector. With the help of European funds, the government plans to recondition half a million homes between 2021 and 2023, with the aim of improving their energy efficiency and thereby helping to achieve the agreed decarbonisation targets. The General State Budget (PGE) also proposes a notable increase in the funds allocated to increase the amount of rented social housing, a policy that is crucial as rents have become even less affordable for the most vulnerable members of the population.

Agrifood exports have continued to perform very well during the pandemic within a context where international trade has been particularly hard hit by the crisis. Swine meat, fruit and some fresh vegetables have been in greatest demand, while the Basque Country and especially Aragon have been the regions posting the largest growth in exports between January and July 2020. Despite this favourable performance to date, however, the sector is keeping a close eye on developments in global trade tensions, especially between the US and EU and the Brexit negotiations.

The shortage of housing supply in a context of strong demand will remain one of the main challenges of Spain’s real estate market in 2025, although it is not among the most overvalued markets in the European Union.  

Spain’s agrifood sector continues to show significant strength and has consolidated its role as the country’s leading driver of exports, thanks to an environment with contained price increases and a recovery in demand. Spain has become the EU’s fourth biggest exporting power and the eighth in the world, with a 3.4% share of the global market. In addition, it has recorded almost three decades of trade surpluses, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP in 2024. Despite the complex international environment, marked by geopolitical tensions and protectionism, the growth of agrifood exports in the first half of 2025, both in volume and in value, hints at a good year for the sector.

Despite the worsening economic situation there is a marked upward trend in the real estate sector with very strong demand and a notable rise in prices. For its part, the supply of new housing is being affected by the war in Ukraine as this has pushed up construction costs even further and aggravated the material supply problems due to bottlenecks in global value chains. Consequently, the misalignment between the demand and supply of housing has intensified, with the result that house prices are likely to continue rising. However, there are several counteracting factors that should help to curb the growth in demand and prices over the medium term, including the impact of inflation on real household income and the ECB’s interest rate hikes.

Investment is a key determinant of long-term economic growth, due to both its direct contribution to aggregate demand and its impact on competitiveness and productivity. In recent years, business investment in Spain has shown significant divergence by sector and region, as well as a notable change in its composition, with a growing prominence of intangible assets (R&D, software, intellectual property, etc.), especially in advanced services and larger companies. This highlights the central role of digitalisation in transforming the productive base of Spain’s economy and in narrowing the gap with the most innovative countries.