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Sentiment deteriorated as stalled US–Iran negotiations and reports that Washington may be preparing for a prolonged conflict pushed energy prices sharply higher. Meanwhile, the Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, but highlighted rising inflation risks, with the statement drawing three dissents from officials opposed to maintaining an easing bias.

Risk appetite improved on Tuesday after senior officials from Iran and the US confirmed that the truce remains in place and that negotiations are ongoing. In this context, crude oil prices fell, although Brent remained around USD 110 per barrel.

Risk sentiment weakened progressively on Thursday, as early optimism over potential progress in US‑Iran talks faded by reports of skirmishes near the Strait of Hormuz, alongside news that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had again lifted restrictions on US military access to their airspace and military bases.

Risk sentiment was mixed on Friday's session, as counterparts in the Middle East conflict remained unable to reach a peace agreement, even though President Trump announced that the ceasefire continued to hold. Energy prices ticked up, with Brent settling above $101/barrel.

Yesterday's session was driven by increasing concerns over extended energy supply disruptions, as differences between the US and Iran regarding the negotiated terms make a peace agreement hard to reach. Energy prices climbed, with Brent up nearly 4%, while TTF posted more modest gains.

A sharp risk-off session closed the week, as stalled US–Iran negotiations pushed energy prices sharply higher and reignited inflation concerns. Brent crude rose more than 3% to near USD 110/barrel, amid persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and continued uncertainty around regional energy flows.

Financial markets posted a mixed performance on Thursday, with moves closely tied to shifting headlines on US‑Iran ceasefire talks. While European markets closed under a cautious tone, US assets benefited from late‑session reports pointing to a draft agreement between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire.

Contradictory headlines from the Middle East drove Monday’s session. After a weekend in which hostilities surged between the US and Iran, President Trump announced that negotiations were to be resumed on Tuesday. Despite this, energy prices rose, especially TTF natural gas, that settled above EUR 42/MWh, and market-implied volatility dropped.

As US-Iran talks resumed yesterday, Brent crude prices closed the session flat, while TTF natural gas prices advanced slightly, to settle above EUR 43/MWh. In other commodities, gold posted its biggest quarterly losses in a decade, closing around 4,000$/once, while market volatility eased.

During yestrerday's session, energy prices continued to fall on increased optimism about reaching a long-term peace agreement in the Middle East, after President Trump was positive about the talks held in Qatar. Brent crude and TTF natural gas prices fell below USD 72/barrel and EUR 43/MWh, respectively.

Commodity markets continued to trade on a relatively positive note in yesterday's session, as investors remained optimistic about the prospects of the US-Iran agreement. Brent crude prices closed flat, nearing pre-war levels, while TTF natural gas prices fell to EUR 44/MWh, correcting after several days of increases last week.

Oil prices rose after attacks near the Strait of Hormuz renewed concerns about disruptions to oil shipments and the US tightened sanctions on Iranian crude. Brent climbed 3.0%, above $74 per barrel, while TTF gas jumped by more than 5% and gold fell.

Market sentiment improved during yesterday's session, with oil prices falling by more than 2%, as investors valued that negotiations between US and Iran remain open, despite Hormuz clashes. On the other hand, TTF gas continued to climb, on a bleaker supply outlook. Gold stabilised, as investors assessed higher geopolitical risks and tighter monetary policy.

Markets closed Friday on a mixed note as attention remained on the risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, although Trump signalled openness to a deal with Iran. Oil prices ended little changed after a choppy session and TTF gas prices fell.

Investor sentiment was mixed in yesterday's session. Energy prices crept up as the U.S. and Iran continued to exchange fire and Brent oil briefly topped $95. Stocks rose across Europe but the U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower amid a mixed performance of tech stocks and ahead of key Q2 earnings releases.

Markets ended Friday with a cautious tone as lower energy prices supported sovereign bond yields amid resilient macroeconomic data. Yields declined on both sides of the Atlantic, more markedly in the euro area, with peripheral spreads tightening, as Brent crude retreated from $100/barrel.

Risk appetite surged on Monday as US strikes on Iran remained paused for a second consecutive night. Energy prices declined sharply, with Brent dropping below $90 per barrel. This lowered inflation expectations, with euro area 1Y inflation swaps falling by around 0.2 p.p. to 2.4%. Sovereign yields also declined across the board, particularly in the euro area.

Markets weighed lower geopolitical risk and falling energy prices against growing concerns over AI-capex returns. Brent oil fell to $84/barrel, lowering  inflation expectations (especially in the short-term) and sovereign yields on both sides of the Atlantic.

Risk appetite improved on Thursday amid supportive macro data and lower energy prices, as war tensions around Hormuz did not escalate. Eurozone sovereign yields fell, with steeper curves and tighter peripheral spreads, after GDP growth surprised to the upside across the euro area and its main economies. ECB expectations were little changed ahead of today’s June CPI print, though markets pared odds of a third rate hike.

Thursday's session shifted toward a risk-on tone, supported by dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who signaled openness to holding rates steady. Markets pared bets on a September Fed rate hike (to 50%), lifting equities and bonds on both sides of the Atlantic while weighing on the dollar.