• The slowdown in rental prices in Spain: what big data reveal


    Based on CaixaBank’s internal data regarding rent payments, we have constructed indicators for the recent trend in residential rental prices at a provincial level and for the largest municipalities. The results obtained show that there was already a generalised slowdown in rent growth before the pandemic arrived, and that the outbreak of the health crisis extended corrections to most provinces and municipalities, with decreases being especially pronounced among the lowest rents and in the most tourist-oriented municipalities.



    Área geográfica
    The downward trend in rental prices has been accentuated in the wake of the pandemic

    The trend towards rental price moderation in Spain began before the onset of COVID-19 and the pandemic merely accelerated it. This has been confirmed by the results of the analysis we have carried out using CaixaBank’s internal data on rent payments (duly anonymised and processed in aggregate using big data techniques). Specifically, we select payer-issuer operations that are six months old or less in order to capture the changes in trend occurring in the market, and construct rental price indicators for each province and for the major municipalities in Spain.

    Equipped with these indicators, the first chart shows that the year-on-year change in the average for the provinces reached a peak in May 2019 and then began to decelerate markedly in the second half of the year. Specifically, 42% of the provinces and 40% of the municipalities analysed reached their maximum value for new rents before December 2019. Consequently, in many locations we found that rental prices had peaked before the pandemic, after five years of much higher growth than the increase in household income.25

    With the arrival of the pandemic, more locations joined the downward trend, which became more pronounced, causing the year-on-year change in the provincial average rental price to reach negative figures from April to July. Several factors probably contributed to this decline, most notably falling household income, which has particularly affected low-income households who tend to live in rented accommodation. For its part, the significant increase in the supply of rented apartments, resulting from the transfer of dwellings intended for tourist rental to the traditional residential market, would also have had an impact on the drop in rental prices in tourist areas, as will be seen below.

    • 25. For an analysis of the factors that drove rental prices between 2014 and 2019, see «Rent is on the rise Spain», published in the Real Estate Sector Report for the second semester of 2019.

    New rental prices started to slow down before the pandemic

    Last actualization: 11 January 2022 - 17:47
    Rents were already experiencing a downward trend before the pandemic.

    The fall in household income and the transfer of properties for tourist rental contributed to this drop in prices

    In 2021, growth in rental prices has been in negative figures throughout much of Spain: 65% of the provinces and 55% of the municipalities analysed have lower prices in 2021 (with data up to September) compared to the 2020 average. The latest available data, corresponding to September 2021, show that 46% of the provinces and 42% of the municipalities analysed are still posting a lower average rental price than in December 2019, before the pandemic, so the recovery in the rental market is lagging far behind the sale market.

    The trend in rental prices in Madrid and Barcelona

    Special mention should be made of the municipalities in Madrid and Barcelona, marked with red and green circles, respectively, in the following chart. In the first case, rents fell sharply in 2020 (–8.3%) although it is true that this decline started from higher growth rates in previous years, and they began to recover in 2021 (+0.6%). In contrast, Barcelona rents experienced a slowdown in 2020 but rental prices resisted adjustment until October 2020, when the law limiting rents in Catalonia’s stressed markets came into force.26

    • 26. Law 11/2020, of 18 September, of the Catalan government, on urgent measures regarding rent containment in rental lease agreements. Since 1 October 2020, this law has limited rental prices in those Catalan municipalities declared a highprice zone.

    The moderation in rental prices has accentuated in the aftermath of the pandemic

    Annual change in the average rent by municipality (%)

    If we compare the trend in rents in the affected Catalan municipalities (where the rental price of new leases cannot exceed the previous price or the benchmark index) before and after this law’s entry into force and also compare it with the rest of the municipalities, we can see that, since October 2020, the year-on-year change in rental price would have been marginally lower in the affected Catalan municipalities (around 1 pp).27 However, the chart below shows that the rental price in the affected Catalan municipalities was somewhat resistant to falling in 2020, before the law came into effect, which could point to a possible reluctance to adjust rental leases to the market situation, anticipating that it will not be possible to raise rents once the new law is in force. However, it is difficult to carry out a rigorous empirical analysis to gauge the impact of this rental law in Catalonia, since it came into force at a time when the market was already adjusting and, in addition, the pandemic has had a different impact on the rental market in each municipality due to a multitude of factors, such as its degree of dependence on tourism, which will be examined below.28

    • 27. Methodologically, we carried out a difference-in-differences analysis.
    • 28. Similarly, other analyses show that the Catalan law would have had little impact on rental prices but a negative impact on supply. See «Efectos de la pandemia en el mercado del alquiler: ¿es conveniente una norma de regulación de precios?» EsadeEcPol Insight #27, February 2021, and «La regulación del alquiler en Cataluña apenas incide en los precios, pero destruye la oferta», Idealista, March 2021.

    The impact of the Catalan law on the price of new rents

    Last actualization: 11 January 2022 - 17:48
    What the average hides... and what microdata reveal

    One great advantage of internal rent payment data that they enable us to analyse the distribution of rents within one location. Generally, available rent indicators report the average rental price in a given area. But the truth is that, within the same location, the range of rental prices is relatively wide.29 Consequently, in order to analyse the trend in rents at different points of the distribution, we has calculated two additional indicators (apart from the average): the 75th percentile indicator (high rents) and the 25th percentile indicator (low rents).30

    • 29. Generally, the rental price depends on the property’s state of repair, its size and other specific factors apart from the area in which the property is located.
    • 30. The 25th percentile indicator (for a given month and location) is the value such that 25% of the rents in that location are below this value (and 75% of the rents are above). The 75th percentile indicator is defined in a similar way and measures the trend in high rents in an area.
    On average, low rents have fallen

    more than high rents in the provinces

    In doing so, we have found that rents at the lower end of the distribution (25th percentile) grew more moderately before the pandemic (up by 5.1% in 2018 versus 5.8% on average) and that their decline in 2021 is more pronounced (–6.1% versus –4.2% on average).31 In contrast, rents at the upper end of the distribution (75th percentile) grew more vigorously in 2019 (6.5%) and their decline in terms of the provincial average has been more limited in 2021 (–4.1%).32 This can be seen in the chart below, which shows the average annual change at a provincial level (the results at a municipal level are similar). These results suggest that much of the adjustment in rental prices has occurred among the lowest rents, generally in dwellings occupied by low-income households which have been the most affected by the crisis in terms of job losses and reduced income.

    • 31. Moreover, in those provinces where prices have fallen in 2021, low rents have posted a considerable average annual decrease (–14%).
    • 32. Moreover, in those provinces where prices have risen in 2021, the prices seeing the highest growth are high rents (the 75th percentile has posted an average increase of 5.9% in these provinces).

    The price of new rents has fallen more in the lower part of the distribution

    Last actualization: 11 January 2022 - 17:48
    The impact of tourism on rental prices

    The pandemic hit international tourism hard, in turn having a direct impact on rental prices in the most tourist-oriented locations: properties that had been destined for tourist rental were shifted to the traditional residential market, increasing the supply and therefore pushing down prices. After classifying the municipalities into tourist and non-tourist (depending on whether spending via foreign cards at CaixaBank POS terminals was more or less than 10% of the total in 2019), we can see that the average rental price fell more sharply in 2020 in tourist-oriented municipalities and that this decline was more pronounced for high rents (75th percentile). We can also see that rental prices in non-tourist municipalities have been slower to adjust (no annual average declines are observed until 2021) and the decline was less sharp than in tourist municipalities and concentrated in the lower part of the distribution (25th percentile).33

    • 33. For an analysis of the impact of international tourism on demand for foreign housing and sale prices in tourist municipalities, see «How has the slump in foreign tourism affected the residential property market?».

    Rental prices have fallen more sharply in tourist-oriented municipalities, especially in the upper part of the distribution

    Average annual change in new rents (%)

    Tourist municipalities

    Last actualization: 11 January 2022 - 17:49

    Non-tourist municipalities

    Last actualization: 11 January 2022 - 17:49
    Final points

    The COVID-19 crisis has accentuated and extended the price adjustment which the rental market was already experiencing before the pandemic arrived. In this context, the draft bill for the right to housing presented by the Spanish government in October 2021 introduces a new regulatory instrument so that regional governments and municipal councils can declare highrent zones in order to limit rental prices in these areas. International experience stresses the importance of carefully assessing the effectiveness and impact of such measures since, in certain cases, they can be counterproductive.34

    • 34. See «Public intervention in the rental housing market: a review of international experience» Documentos Ocasionales no. 2002, Bank of Spain, 2020.
    Destacado Economia y Mercados
    Destacado Analisis Sectorial
    Destacado Área Geográfica
  • Sustainability in tourism: make or break


    One of the consequences of the COVID-19 health crisis has been the increased awareness of the population and, by extension, that of politicians regarding the need to include sustainability criteria in economic policies in order to promote a more sustainable and resilient reactivation of the economy. The tourism industry is no stranger to these trends; firstly, because its business can be adversely affected by the consequences of climate change and, secondly, because there is ample scope for the industry to become more sustainable. This article attempts to determine what we understand by sustainability in the tourism sector, how it can be measured, the current situation of Spain’s tourism industry and where it is heading.



    Área geográfica
    What do we mean when we talk about sustainability in tourism?

    Spain’s tourism industry has developed exceptionally in recent years, becoming one of the country’s main sources of business, income and employment. However, this strong development had also led to the emergence of some negative actions and social unease regarding the role played by tourism at certain destinations and moments until, in 2020, the coronavirus crisis paralysed the sector’s activity and highlighted its social and economic relevance for many areas in Spain. At present, the policies implemented by the European authorities and the Spanish government itself clearly indicate a way out of the crisis based on criteria of sustainability and resilience which, in the case of the tourism sector, consists of two aspects. On the one hand, tourism is particularly sensitive to the impact of climate change, such as rising sea levels, extreme weather events, environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. On the other hand, as tourism is an activity that involves high levels of atmospheric pollution and puts great pressure on natural resources, there is ample room for improvement to make the sector more sustainable.

    The World Tourism Organization defines

    the principles of sustainability in terms of the environmental, economic and socio-cultural aspects of tourism development

    In this respect, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) defines the principles of sustainability in terms of three areas: environmental, economic and socio-cultural. The first area aims to make optimal use of natural and environmental resources, as well as to preserve biological diversity. The economic aspect corresponds to tourism’s impact on the economy of the locality receiving tourists, in such a way as to promote long-term viable activities, with stable employment opportunities and well-distributed socio-economic benefits. Finally, the socio-cultural aspect seeks to conserve and strengthen the cultural and architectural assets and traditional values of the tourist destination in question.

    How can we measure the sector’s progress towards sustainability?

    In order to gauge the degree of sustainability in the sector and the steps that should be taken in the future, we have created a relevant indicator for each of the three aspects defined by the UNWTO regarding tourism’s sustainability. It should be noted that our analysis has been carried out using data prior to 2020, as the effect of the pandemic on these indicators would distort the analysis contained in this article.

    Most of the tourism industry’s greenhouse gas emissions

    concentrated in the transportation sector

    In environmental terms, we have taken the trend in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere by the sectors that make up Spain’s tourism industry.6 For this analysis, we have only taken into account the trend in the three gases that are most emitted into the atmosphere: carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO). The first conclusion that can be drawn is that most of the GHG emissions come from the transport sector (accounting for around 12% of tourism GDP), specifically the emission of nitrogen oxides resulting from combustion engines. These sectors are among the most polluting of all industries. Moreover, the pollution level has increased since 2013 for air transport, and although they have decreased for land transport they are still at an incredibly high level. With respect to accommodation and hospitality services, as well as travel agency and tour operator activities, carbon monoxide is the pollutant emitted most into the atmosphere.7 Although the pollution level are not alarming, far from moderating they actually grew by 78% in the case of accommodation and 38% in the case of agencies and tour operators between 2013 and 2019.

    • 6. This analysis considers the data provided by the National Statistics Institute by branch of activity: accommodation services, food and beverage services (branch 55-56, according to CNAE 2009); activities of travel agencies, tour operators, booking services and related activities (branch 79); land and tube transportation (branch 49), and air transport (branch 51).
    • 7. This type of GHG is produced every time a fossil fuel such as natural gas, propane gas, petrol, oil, kerosene, wood or coal is ignited. In other words, the sector produces this as a result of people using heating and cooling systems and combustion stoves.

    Greenhouse gas emissions by tourism sector

    Accommodation services, food and beverage services

    Last actualization: 26 January 2022 - 09:22

    Activities of travel agencies, tour operators and related activities

    Last actualization: 26 January 2022 - 09:24

    Land transport

    Last actualization: 26 January 2022 - 09:25

    Air transport

    Last actualization: 26 January 2022 - 09:26

    The indicators of economic value consider the contribution made by tourism to the economic sustainability of each destination. The variables we have used to measure this are the average number of overnight stays per month (volume of activity) and the expenditure per tourist (value of that activity). The volume and value of tourism are essential to the economic sustainability of a destination: the greater the expenditure per day, the more efficient the destination in terms of generating tourism value.

    The relationship between volume (number of overnight stays) and expenditure per tourist can be seen in the figure below.8 In the most tourism-oriented provinces (those with more than 10 million overnight stays per year), average expenditure is around 300 euros per tourist. The case of Las Palmas is particularly negative in this respect: it ranks second in terms of overnight stays but only has a modest average expenditure. Among the rest of the provinces, the average expenditure per tourist is below 175 euros. Girona, Alicante and Gipuzkoa are particularly positive in economic terms as they typically have a more modest volume of hotel stays but a very high expenditure per tourist.

    • 8. Total tourist expenditure by province has been estimated using in-person card payments by domestic and international tourists via CaixaBank POS terminals in 2019.

    Economic indicators: tourist expenditure vs. overnight stays

    Y axis: Expenditure/tourist; X axis: Overnight stays (million)

    p16 ING
    Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from CaixaBank and the National Statistics Institute.

    As a basic indicator to gauge the social and cultural impact of different tourist destinations, we have measured congestion in the various provinces as this influences residents’ satisfaction and is a basic indicator of the social impact of tourism on a community. To this end, we have used the variable of the number of overnight stays in proportion to the resident population, the results of which can be seen in summary form in the map below. In general terms, no significant tourism pressure is observed in most of the country.9 However, the most noteworthy cases are the following: (i) the island regions, eminently beach and nature destinations which receive a lot of international tourism,10 (ii) certain areas close to the border with France that offer beach and mountain tourism (Huesca, Tarragona and Girona) with a small local population and that are visited by neighbouring countries, as well as (iii) certain towns in Andalusia that receive both domestic and international tourism (Malaga, Huelva and Almeria). It seems that congestion in the most tourist-oriented destinations has actually worsened in recent years, given that the population has grown, on average, much less than the number of tourists.11 

    • 9. In Spain, the ratio of the volume of overnight stays to the resident population is slightly above seven, which can be taken as a reference for the average congestion for the country as a whole. Congestion above these levels can be considered as high. In the case of the EU, it is around four, according to data provided by Eurostat.
    • 10. In fact, the Balearic Islands stand out as the European region with the highest congestion in terms of the number of annual visitors they receive, according to regional data provided by Eurostat, ahead of the autonomous province of Bolzano (Italy), the Algarve (Portugal), Tyrol and Salzburg (Austria).
    • 11. In the past 10 years, Spain’s population has grown by 2% on average while international tourist arrivals have increased by nearly 60%.

    Overnight stays as a share of the resident population

    p17 ING
    Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from the National Statistics Institute.
    Towards a new, more sustainable and competitive model

    In light of the available indicators, it seems evident that there is room for improvement over the coming years. Regarding the environment, pollution levels have actually increased in recent years and the potential areas of improvement range from promoting more energy-efficient buildings and more modern air conditioning systems to more sustainable travel, among other aspects. In economic terms, there is no doubt regarding the importance of the sector for the Spanish economy as a whole, although it will be necessary to keep an eye on those destinations with high levels of congestion, where the sector’s economic contribution is modest. Finally, in socio-cultural terms there are some regions with an increasingly excessive tourism demand, which can make the resident populations uneasy due to congestion problems in small towns with limited public services, especially as they are not always prepared to absorb such a huge seasonal demand.

    The sector’s agenda for sustainability involves implementing initiatives that pre-date COVID-19 and now make it possible to take advantage of funds from Europe.12 Specifically, the Spanish tourism industry is covered by the government’s Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan via the policy of «Modernisation and digitisation of the industrial fabric and SMEs, recovery of tourism and promotion of an entrepreneurial nation Spain», in which component 14 outlines a Modernisation and Competitiveness Plan for the Tourism Sector. Within the latter, the area that will receive the most investment is the Strategy for Sustainable Tourism at Destinations, which has an estimated budget of 1.9 billion euros for the next three years.13

    • 12. At the beginning of 2019, the Spanish government and Secretary of State for Tourism had already begun work on Spain’s Sustainable Tourism Strategy 2030, which took into account the need to include sustainability criteria for the sector and began to introduce the objectives and criteria that, through the NGEU funds, have now been established in the new Strategy for Sustainable Tourism at Destinations.
    • 13. The government held the first extraordinary call for Sustainability Plans in November 2021. 615 million euros were disbursed to the autonomous regions, taking into account economic variables (percentage of tourism GDP with respect to regional GDP and the reduction in the number of tourism workers between December 2019 and December 2020), regional variables (the size of the autonomous region as a percentage of the total area of Spain and population density) and tourism variables (number of international tourists received in 2019 and spending by these tourists).
    The ultimate goal is none other than to try

    to improve the competitiveness of Spain’s tourism industry by means of a new model with greater added value

    The objective of these initiatives is not only to ensure that Spanish destinations are capable of integrating environmental, socio-economic and regional sustainability criteria into the tourism products and services they supply but also to develop resilience strategies in the face of current challenges (climate change, excessive demand for tourism, health and safety-related crises) and to achieve greater cohesion among the different regions. In other words, to improve the distribution of the burdens on the country and establish an integrated approach to help slow down its depopulation. The ultimate goal is none other than to try to improve the competitiveness of Spain’s tourism industry by means of a new model that is more sustainable, of higher quality and, therefore, of greater added value.

    Destacado Economia y Mercados
    Destacado Analisis Sectorial
    Destacado Área Geográfica
  • The importance of revitalising the tourism industry’s digitalisation


    The sectors most closely related to tourism are digitalising faster than the average for the Spanish economy but there is still a long way to go, especially when compared to other tourism industries in Europe. In the next few years, it will be crucial for Spain’s tourism industry to be able to remedy this situation by  means of a clear commitment to digitalisation, which will help to improve its long-term growth capacity. The European NGEU funds are an opportunity to revitalise investment in the digitalisation of tourism businesses after two very tough years for the industry.



    Área geográfica

    Digitalisation has gained even more prominence in our lives In the wake of the pandemic. Consumers have radically changed how they communicate, work and consume and the business fabric has adapted very quickly to these changes, accelerating its digitalisation with the extensive implementation of teleworking and enormous growth in e-commerce sales.14 This transformation is crucial to ensure the long-term growth of all sectors. Companies that invest in digitalisation in the coming years will be investing in a strategy that will help them to gain in productivity and competitiveness and will therefore improve their prospects considerably, while those that lag behind may lose prominence.

    Some sectors, such as retail, have made great strides during the pandemic thanks to the unprecedented incorporation of digitalisation into their sales channels. The tourism industry has also realised the importance of e-commerce although, due to the economic problems it has experienced during the pandemic, it has not been able to make such remarkable progress. Nevertheless, the industry’s economic recovery and the arrival of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds could provide an impetus for the sector to continue digitalising.

    • 14. See «e-commerce: years of progress in just a few months» from our Retail Sector Report 2021 and the Focus «The COVID-19 outbreak boosts remote working» from our June 2020 Monthly Report.
    The current state of digitalisation in the tourism sector

    To understand the next steps that should be taken by the tourism industry in digitalisation terms, we need to understand the current state of the businesses in the sector. We have used the CaixaBank Sectoral Digitalisation Index (CSDI) to gauge the extent of digitalisation in tourism companies. Our index provides a holistic view of the business digitalisation process, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the different sectors of activity in various areas: digital assets (capital and human resources); digital intensity of interactions with clients, suppliers and public authorities, and how intensively both traditional and emerging digital technologies are used.15

    As can be seen below, according to the CSDI for 2020 the benchmark sector in Spain is information and communications technology (ICT) with a score of 67 points out of 100.16 Retail, accommodation and transport and storage (the three sectors most closely linked to tourism that are covered by the index) scored 48, 46 and 42 points, respectively, which implies a significant gap with respect to more digital sectors. It should be noted that, although there is no significant difference in any of these three sectors most closely linked to tourism, the trend between 2017 (the first year calculated) and 2020 has been more positive than average, suggesting that the tourism industry is improving its relative position. 

    CaixaBank Sectoral Digitalisation Index (CSDI)

    Index between 0 (min.) and 100 (max.)

    p20 ING
    Source: CaixaBank Research.
    According to the CaixaBank Sectoral Digitalisation Index

    the tourism sector is digitalising faster than the average for the Spanish economy 

    The CSDI enables us to carry out a more in-depth analysis as it is composed of various pillars and sub-pillars that illustrate the degree of digitalisation in more specific fields. In this respect, if we analyse the digitalisation pillars for inputs and interactions (see the table), it can be observed that businesses in the tourism industry stand out in particular areas. We can see that the accommodation sector stands out in digitalisation terms regarding its client relations, thanks to the marketing of services being digitalised, a process that has been gaining ground over other traditional marketing methods for many years now. On the other hand, it is evident that many areas still need improvement, such as the digitalisation of supplier relations and banking, as well as the digitalisation of the factors of production (capital and labour).

    Breakdown of the CSDI 2020 by component of the input pillar and interaction pillar

    Index between 0 (min.) and 100 (max.)

    p21 ING
    Source: CaixaBank Research.

    This analysis raises the question of to what extent it is necessary for the digitalisation of the tourism industry to advance to the same extent as a sector such as ICT. Due to the idiosyncratic features of each sector, the optimal extent of capital and labour digitalisation may vary greatly between sectors. To better understand the gap with the technological frontier of each tourism-related sector, we analysed the degree of digitalisation of the factors of production at an international level, specifically by comparing the degree that advanced digital technologies are used in EU countries for the accommodation and retail sectors.

    As can be seen in the following charts, the use of big data and cloud computing technologies by Spain’s accommodation and retail sectors is below the EU average. Moreover, there is a very wide gap between them and the technological frontier (the difference with respect to the most digitalised European country) in all cases, indicating the great room for improvement in tourism-related companies in Spain.

    Companies using digital technologies in the EU-27 countries

    % of total for each country

    p22 ING
    Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from Eurostat.
    The accommodation sector is a reference regarding the degree of digitalisation

    of its client relations, thanks to the digitalisation of its marketing services

    The role played by digitalisation in the future of the tourism sector

    Having analysed the strengths and weaknesses of the digitalisation process in the tourism industry, it is important to determine what this process can offer companies since digitalisation is not an end in itself but a means of increasing competitiveness and productivity. In this respect, the tourism sector can learn from what the industry itself has gained from digitalising its interactions with clients, a process which, according to the CSDI, has reached a very high level, mainly as a result of the emergence of OTAs (online travel agencies, such as Booking and Expedia) and the development of direct online sales by the major hotel chains.

    According to a Phocuswright study, between 2014 and 2019 turnover from hotel room sales in the EU made via electronic channels were very strong, growing at an average annual rate of 8.1%, especially through OTAs whose sales increased by 11% per year. This contrasts with the poorer performance of traditional sales channels (direct face-to-face, physical travel agencies and tour operators), which barely grew at an annual rate of 0.8%. Consequently, the relative share of online sales in the EU reached 40% in 2019 (27% OTAs and 13% direct online sales), suggesting that these sales channels are much more competitive than traditional ones in the eyes of tourists. These trends become even more evident when we look specifically at hotel SMEs, which between 2016 and 2019 only recorded growth in sales channels that were not face-to-face.

    Between 2014 and 2019, the online sale of hotel rooms

    grew at an average annual rate of 8.1%, much higher than the 0.8% posted by sales via traditional channels

    Regarding supply, the greater focus on online sales channels has been a successful formula, offering much more visibility and access to a much larger market for all types of destinations and hotels, regardless of the amount of resources available to invest in marketing. In other words, digital sales channels make it possible for a small hotel in a municipality in Spain that is not particularly tourism-oriented to sell bookings to a tourist on any continent in the world. If we examine CaixaBank POS terminal payments in hotel businesses between 2019 and 2021, we can see that the likelihood of a foreigner making a purchase from a hotel business is substantially higher via the e-commerce channel. This is even the case in 2020, when the volume of foreign tourists in Spain was 79% lower than in 2019, although 63% of foreign tourist expenditure on hotels was carried out via online channels.

    Breakdown of payments via CaixaBank POS terminals with accommodation businesses by origin of tourist and sales channel

    (% of total expenditure)

    p24 ING
    Source: CaixaBank Research, based on CaixaBank’s internal data.

    Sales of tourism services are already relatively digitalised, confirming the enormous potential of digitalisation to improve competitiveness and productivity. However, according to the CSDI results analysed in this article, there is still a lot of scope for improvement in other areas (B2B relations, investment in technological capital, greater use of data analytics, etc.) which could play a key role in the industry’s future. To progress in digitalising these weak points, it will be necessary for companies in the sector to invest decisively in digitalisation.

    Between 2019 and 2021, the likelihood of hotel payments being made

    by an international tourist was greater via e-commerce sales channels

    But not everyone in the tourism industry will be a winner. Traditional sectors with less capacity to digitalise could lose market share, leaving room for those businesses that do develop their digital channels. According to our analysis, the main winners of digitalisation could be: (i) smaller tourism companies, with more potential to improve their efficiency than large companies; (ii) companies offering differentiated services, given that online sales provide a wide range of options for the buyer, and (iii) tourists, who will have access to a larger number of services that are more personalised and more competitively priced.

    The role of the NGEU funds in the tourism industry’s digitalisation

    As noted earlier in this article, digitalisation requires considerable investment. However, the crisis caused by the pandemic has significantly limited the investment capacity of tourism companies. The role played by the European NGEU funds through the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (PRTR) could therefore be crucial. Spain’s tourism industry appears in the PRTR via the policy of «Modernisation and digitisation of the industrial fabric and SMEs, recovery of tourism and promotion of an entrepreneurial nation Spain», in which component 14 outlines a Plan for the Modernisation and Competitiveness of the Tourism Sector. Despite this, the item budgeted to digitalise the tourism industry within component 14 of the plan is only 337 million euros, a figure that seems very limited given the size of the sector which, in 2019, achieved a tourism GDP of 154 billion euros (investment in digitalisation would represent 0.2% of tourism GDP in 2019).

    The NGEU funds budgeted to digitalise the tourism industry

    are limited but could act as a lever to revitalise private investment in digitalisation

    The objectives of the PRTR’s Digital Transformation Plan for the tourism industry have focused on developing digital platforms that add value or represent a growth lever for the sector. Consequently, the three main lines of action will be:

    • Investment in developing smart destinations to boost Spain’s tourism brands.
    • Developing a tourism intelligence system for public authorities and companies in the sector, so that data are collected from the companies and organisations along the entire value chain.
    • Investment in innovative projects and initiatives involving digital solutions for the sector (developing applications, collaborative platforms, etc.).

    In conclusion, the lines drawn out by the plan are highly appropriate given the weaknesses identified in this article in the tourism industry’s digitalisation. Although we estimate that the extent of the resources allocated in the PRTR for these initiatives is limited, we do expect it will have a leverage effect and revitalise private investment initiatives in digitalisation that were put on hold with the outbreak of COVID-19. In any case, the tourism industry will have to get back on its pre-pandemic track by investing heavily in its transformation, and especially in its digital transformation.

    Destacado Economia y Mercados
    Destacado Analisis Sectorial
    Destacado Área Geográfica

Are we in a better or worse position than we expected?

But for once, to start the year on a good footing, permit me to dare to highlight what is going well, and the things that can go even better, of which there are plenty.

Content available in
January 13th, 2022
Photo by Manu Schwendener on Unsplash

Is the global economy in a better or worse position than we expected a year ago? No doubt you already have an opinion on this. We constantly hear qualified people emphatically and assertively stating their opinion about our current situation, about where we are headed and, what is even more difficult but much more tempting to predict, about what we have to do to change our destination. The world is overdiagnosed, as CIDOB states in its latest report on the 2022 outlook. However, those of us who practice this risky sport often focus on the things that are going badly or on what can go wrong. At difficult times like the present, it is hard to highlight what is going well. No doubt there are also those who err on the side of caution to avoid getting it wrong – that way, if things take a turn for the worse, don’t say I didn’t warn you! But one thing is for certain: it sells more, and on Twitter you get more likes if you criticise the things that are going badly. In short, for all these reasons, many of us have the feeling that the world is worse than we expected. Well, no. It is better – rather a lot better than we expected a year ago, at least in economic terms.

To see this, we must take a step back from the short-term reading of the latest indicators and look at the bigger picture. If we take as a benchmark the growth forecasts which we at CaixaBank Research had for 2021 in January last year, and we compare them with the current estimate, there is no room for doubt. The year has gone better than expected. Globally, a year ago we were predicting GDP growth of 5.5%, and today it looks like 2021 will close with growth of around 6.0%. Indeed, the figures have been better than expected among both developed and emerging countries. We now expect growth of around 5.0% and 7.0% for these two groups of countries, respectively. Of particular note is the improved outlook for the euro area. Beyond the ups and downs we have witnessed throughout the year, in the end we have closed the year with an increase of around 1 pp and we now anticipate growth of around 5.0% for the year as a whole. The forecast in the US has also improved, albeit more timidly.

Among the countries with worse-than-expected GDP growth are Germany, where the industrial sector has been severely affected by the disruptions to supply chains, and Spain. In Spain, growth looks set to have ended last year at 5.0%, just over 1 pp below what we were expecting in January 2021. However, it is not all bad news for our economy. Employment, a variable which right now is just as (if not more) important as GDP for analysing the evolution of the economy, has performed much better than expected. 2021 ended with an effective level of employment (i.e. discounting people still on furlough) clearly above the pre-pandemic level. Not even the most optimistic among us would have dared to propose such a positive outlook at the beginning of last year.

Looking ahead, our growth forecasts for 2022 have also improved across the board, despite fears of the limiting effect of the global trade bottlenecks and the marked rebound in inflation in several countries. One of the key factors, of course, is the effectiveness of the vaccines. Although they are failing to completely prevent the spread of the virus, they have dramatically reduced the pressure on hospitals, which means that we are handling the new waves without having to impose strict restrictions on mobility and activity. During 2021, we have also seen that the major economies have coped relatively well with the harsh restrictions that had to be imposed. The rapid recovery they have shown once these restrictions were lifted allows us to look to the future with more confidence. Finally, we have also found that economic policy, in both the fiscal and the monetary sphere, has responded appropriately to the challenges that the pandemic has presented, and we are confident that this will continue to be the case over the coming year.

In particular, for 2022 we anticipate global growth of 4.4%, half a point above what we were forecasting back in January 2021. Most notably, our forecasts for developed economies over the last 12 months have improved by around 1 pp, although it has improved for emerging economies as well. By country, it is in Germany and Spain that the growth forecast has improved the most, offsetting the poorer performance of 2021. For Spain, we forecast GDP growth of around 6.0% (an improvement of more than 1 pp compared to what we were expecting a year ago), driven by the recovery of the tourism sector, the deployment of the European recovery and transformation funds, and the materialisation of pent-up demand.

There are things that are not going so well, and there are a multitude of things that can go wrong. You can read about it everywhere, including in the pages of this report (last year, the word «risk» appeared in the Monthly Report each month as many times as there are pages). But for once, to start the year on a good footing, permit me to dare to highlight what is going well, and the things that can go even better, of which there are plenty. I wish you a happy and prosperous 2022.