The financial conditions behind the economic scenario in 2026
The conflict in the Middle East has caused the financial environment to take a step backwards. Although it has not experienced significant tightening overall, it is less favorable to the performance of economic activity in the coming quarters. The risks are high, and while a swift resolution of the conflict could ease financial conditions, the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to exponentially increase economic and financial costs if oil and derivative product stocks fall too low and can no longer cushion the contraction in energy supply. It is also important not to overlook market monitoring of public debt dynamics in several advanced economies, nor the financial risks associated with AI, both in terms of its ability to live up to expectations and its potential to disrupt established economic structures.
