Geographical areas

More than three months into the conflict in the Middle East, the effects of the supply shock triggered by the surge in energy prices will now become increasingly evident in the inflation and growth data. The combination of uncertainty and resilience that has characterised the recent behaviour of the global economy makes for a fragile balance, especially with geopolitical risk remaining so high.

The slowdown that is beginning to appear in the indicators is incorporated into the new CaixaBank Research forecasts, detailed in the following pages of this Monthly Report. Broadly speaking, the scenario anticipates positive activity growth, albeit more restrained between the second and third quarters of the year. Energy prices are expected to moderate by the end of 2026, according to oil and gas futures markets, which should lead to a slight re-acceleration of growth.