Geographical areas

The macroeconomic landscape is once again constrained by a geopolitical conflict. The crisis between the US and Iran, which began over three months ago, remains under a fragile truce. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which is currently the most damaging factor for the global economy. Spain is facing this episode from a position of strength, but rising energy costs and the deteriorating international environment will reduce economic dynamism and increase inflation. Therefore, we have revised our GDP growth forecast to 2.1% for 2026 and to 1.8% for 2027, compared to 2.4% and 2.0% previously. This is a moderate revision and it does not change the diagnosis of a dynamically growing economy.