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The debate over working hours has intensified significantly in Spain, on the one hand, due to proposals for its reduction, and on the other, due to the rise in hours lost due to temporary sick leave. Beyond the impact on business costs and the labour market, the implications for labour productivity are of particular interest, with widely divergent readings since the pandemic in the case of Spain depending on whether we measure it per hour worked or per employee. This article places these debates within the broader the European context, drawing similarities and differences with other countries in our vicinity.

Small mid-caps could benefit from more proportionate regulation that facilitates the scale-up of Europe’s productive sector, an idea which the Draghi report stressed in order to regain global competitiveness.

The European Central Bank is reviewing the operating framework with which it implements interest rates. In this article we examine the main question marks in the process.

We set out the revision of our forecast scenario for the price of oil and the price of European natural gas for the coming quarters.

We continue to analyse the phenomenon of de-risking among the major economic powers in a new instalment of articles dedicated to international trade and geopolitics. In this first article, we will focus on the United States and China, and in a second edition, on the European Union.

Having laid out the complex trade relationship between the United States and China, we continue to analyse the phenomenon of de-risking among the major economic powers, focusing on the European Union.

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a historic fall in household consumption in 2020. In the euro area, the decline reached 15.4% in Q2 of that year and stood at –8.1% for the year as a whole, with bigger reductions in the countries hardest hit by the first wave of the pandemic. Unlike previous crises, however, the declines in consumption were not accompanied by similar declines in households’ disposable income.

We expect the global economy to grow by 3.1% both in 2025 and in 2026 (up from 2.9% previously), driven by upward revisions in the US (from 1.3% to 1.8% in 2025) and China (from 4.2% to 4.6%), in addition to marginal improvements in the euro area (from 1.2% to 1.3%).

The composition of European final demand includes 2% Chinese goods and services, while the dependence rises to 6% in manufacturing, most notably in sectors such as textiles and electronics. But how much does China depend on the EU?

Spain is facing 2026 with funding needs that remain high, albeit in a relatively more favourable fiscal context than its main European peers. Despite the reduction of the deficit and public debt as a percentage of GDP, the high nominal levels and a volume of maturities similar to that of 2025 mean that funding needs remain at levels comparable to those of recent years. In this context, the strength of demand for public debt – especially among non-resident investors – allows us to anticipate an orderly absorption of the issuance volume.

The resistance exhibited by international economic activity, the reduction of uncertainty and the improvement in growth projections indicate a better immediate outlook. However, the world economy is not out of the woods yet.