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The composition of European final demand includes 2% Chinese goods and services, while the dependence rises to 6% in manufacturing, most notably in sectors such as textiles and electronics. But how much does China depend on the EU?

Spain is facing 2026 with funding needs that remain high, albeit in a relatively more favourable fiscal context than its main European peers. Despite the reduction of the deficit and public debt as a percentage of GDP, the high nominal levels and a volume of maturities similar to that of 2025 mean that funding needs remain at levels comparable to those of recent years. In this context, the strength of demand for public debt – especially among non-resident investors – allows us to anticipate an orderly absorption of the issuance volume.

We expect the global economy to grow by 3.1% both in 2025 and in 2026 (up from 2.9% previously), driven by upward revisions in the US (from 1.3% to 1.8% in 2025) and China (from 4.2% to 4.6%), in addition to marginal improvements in the euro area (from 1.2% to 1.3%).

NGEU represents an extraordinary opportunity to give the Spanish economy a new modernising boost, but effective institutional mechanisms will be essential in order to make the most of it.

We are therefore heading towards a context with higher tariffs and in which, most likely, there will be some reconfiguration of global value chains in an attempt to compensate, insofar as possible, for the loss of attractiveness of the US market. Consequently, we are moving towards a world with greater fragmentation, lower economic growth and the risk of higher inflation.

Macro fundamentals have closely aligned with observed sovereign risk premiums in recent years. In fact, the sustained moderation of the main euro area risk premiums clearly aligns with what is predicted by the fundamentals. However, a country‑by‑country analysis reveals a more nuanced picture.

The resilience shown by the international economy at the aggregate level, which is quite remarkable given the significant geopolitical uncertainty and restrictive financial conditions dominating the scenario, reflects disparate dynamics among the various international economies, with each one seeking to make an orderly landing amidst their own challenges. The US is experiencing strong growth and is seeking to normalise towards more sustainable rates, while the euro area is showing signs of less apathetic growth and China maintains mixed dynamics between industry and domestic demand.

We are now almost half way through the year and it is time to take stock in order to update a set of economic scenarios in which the divergence in the pattern of inflation between the United States and Europe has been key to explaining the adjustment of interest rate forecasts.

We examine whether COVID-19 has changed e-commerce habits in Spain based on card payments by CaixaBank's 13.5 million customers, which have been anonymised and analysed using big data techniques.