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We examine NATO’s reasons and objectives of increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, and to what extent it is reasonable to expect the European Union to increase it. 

Having laid out the complex trade relationship between the United States and China, we continue to analyse the phenomenon of de-risking among the major economic powers, focusing on the European Union.

We continue to analyse the phenomenon of de-risking among the major economic powers in a new instalment of articles dedicated to international trade and geopolitics. In this first article, we will focus on the United States and China, and in a second edition, on the European Union.

To date, the investments already approved as part of the Portuguese Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) amount to 12,249 million euros, compared to total planned investments of 16,644 million euros. This represents an approval rate of 74%, which in principle looks promising in terms of getting the most out of the NGEU funds that Portugal will receive up until 2026.

We look at the cooling of the global manufacturing sector at a time marked by the convergence of various factors: the aftermath of the pandemic, the pull effect of China and the repercussions of the energy crisis for European industry.

We expect the global economy to grow by 3.1% both in 2025 and in 2026 (up from 2.9% previously), driven by upward revisions in the US (from 1.3% to 1.8% in 2025) and China (from 4.2% to 4.6%), in addition to marginal improvements in the euro area (from 1.2% to 1.3%).

The COVID-19 outbreak has brought about a paradigm shift in many aspects of the economy, including consumer habits and, specifically, e-commerce in the retail sector. How have businesses that were already selling online pre-pandemic and the new entrants to this sales channel contributed to the growth in e-commerce?

In its battle against inflation, monetary policy has tightened considerably, as is clearly visible in official interest rates and those faced by businesses, households and governments. But these interest rates are not an end in themselves; rather, the ultimate goal is to cool economic activity and thus curb inflation. In this article, we have analysed the state of monetary policy transmission through one of its main channels: credit conditions.

The protectionist agenda and the withdrawal of multilateralism by the new US administration could benefit foreign investment in the euro area, thanks to its stable regulatory framework, confidence in the independence of the ECB and plans to boost spending on defence and infrastructure. 

The resistance exhibited by international economic activity, the reduction of uncertainty and the improvement in growth projections indicate a better immediate outlook. However, the world economy is not out of the woods yet. 

In this article, we address the sustainability challenge facing our public pension system, based on the analyses carried out by the AIReF, the European Commission and the Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration.

We assess the most important points in the last-minute agreement by which, on 1 January 2021, the UK left the single market and customs union with the EU.